cavanami Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Cheese S Rice! As soon as you attach "... of Thailand" to the name of a corp, you seem to get a branch that is automatically shit. Of course Vorapak Tanyourwang predicts this. He also says there is no corruption, the Swampy BTS extension will be complete by next month, Chalerm's son was innocent and the Grand Palace is closed to foreigners. Monkey Nation, chapter 37 Doesn't matter! we come here to drink, party and bang the lovely ladies!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bibblies Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 ...I'm going to stick my neck out and say we're pretty much almost there. The latest moves feel too panicky now. Maybe another 10-15% or so but not much more. ... Looking at the graphs of currency pairs, the falls are just too darn steep. Pound and the Euro versus the Yen, the Aussie versus the Dollar and the Yen... nearly vertical lines. Well, it looks like a good call so far. I just wish I'd listened to my own instincts and taken some of those yen bets off the table. Instead they've all hit their (pretty wide) stop-losses today and I'm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavanami Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 Why the U.S. Economy is Going to Get Much Worse http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2008/10/28/why-the-u-s-economy-is-going-to-get-much-worse.aspx The derivatives market is worth more than $516 trillion, roughly 10 times the value of the entire world's output: it's been called the "ticking time-bomb." Unsurprisingly, this news comes to us from Britain; the U.S. media is not going to mention it. The complex and opaque derivatives markets -- land of hedge funds and complex financial instruments -- has been dubbed the world's biggest black hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartThais Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 The derivatives market is worth more than $516 trillion, roughly 10 times the value of the entire world's output: it's been called the "ticking time-bomb." Unsurprisingly, this news comes to us from Britain; the U.S. media is not going to mention it. Although it's a sensational number, I don't think you can draw any conclusions based on the notional value of derivatives contracts. If a lottery ticket is a call option on a $100M payout and you sell a million lottery tickets, that's like saying the size of the lottery is $100 trillion. I don't see any logical connection between the size of the notional on derivatives contracts and the US economy. It doesn't really measure the risk or leverage. Also, the derivatives market is one area where the US lags behind Europe. The riskier, less transparent derivatives are over-the-counter and London is the capital for that market. I believe the single largest derivatives exchange by volume is South Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartThais Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 I just wish I'd listened to my own instincts and taken some of those yen bets off the table. Instead they've all hit their (pretty wide) stop-losses today and I'm down. As you know, long yen is more or less a long volatility or short equity position. But I think long yen positions get very dangerous when yen is in the 90s because of risk of intervention. Also, yen has been increasingly positioned for risk aversion since September with net long position increasing. When yen is net long, the predictable yen/equity correlation breaks down and movements become really unpredictable... I would stay away from yen... too much downside for not too much upside. FX makes me very nervous nowadays anyway. Central banks are very unpredictable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Moth Posted November 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2008 S&P now down more than 50% in one year and much more opportunity for declines as the auto industry dies, unemployment increase, companies go bankrupt, home values decrease and foreclosures rise...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samak Posted November 21, 2008 Report Share Posted November 21, 2008 the stock market usually already anticipates such negative development that is very likley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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