The End of the Thai Fairy Tale

[Mentors]

The clashes on the streets of Bangkok are the result of a profound social crisis.

 

With charming self-deprecation and only a hint of despair, Thais used to label their kingdom's imperfect politics as "Thai-style democracy." In recent weeks, the country has crossed the line into a state ofâ€â€so farâ€â€non-violent "Thai-style civil war."

 

Facing the occupation of Bangkok's shopping belt by members of the largely rural, populist "red shirt" movement and their brief invasion of parliament, the royalist, military-backed government fronted by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has declared a state of emergency in the capital and parts of surrounding provinces. But, even as Bangkokians' frustration with the chaos mounts, Mr. Abhisit, his royalist backers and his generals have refrained from sending police or military units out to regain control of the city's streets. Whether that restraint is due to fear of bloodshed or to a frightening lack of confidence in the loyalty of security forces remains unclear.

 

[color:red]Having come to power 16 months ago with the help of the courts and the sustained protests of the typically more affluent royalists of the "yellow shirt" movement, Mr. Abhisit has refused to accede to red-shirt demands for an immediate dissolution of parliament and new elections. The red shirts have in turn spurned his offer to hold polls in nine months' time.

 

A clear consensus holds that, when elections do come, red-shirt parties dominated by men loyal to exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will ride large majorities in northern and northeastern Thailand to electoral victory.[/color] But elections are blunt instruments for the resolution of a deep-seated sociopolitical crisis. Thailand, long apparently one of the "lucky countries" of the second half of the 20th century, now faces just such a crisis.

 

By the 1960s, the image of a glamorous, capable, globe-trotting royal couple who presided over a realm marked by social harmony and agricultural plenty had come to symbolize Thailand's great good luck. What a contrast it seemed to present to its war-torn neighbors in Indochina. The 1960s also saw the start of a sustained commodities boom, as hundreds of thousands of Thais migrated to upland frontiers. Just as such other American allies in Asia as South Korea and Taiwan entered a trajectory of rapid economic growth based on industrialization, agriculture had a similar effect for Thailand.

 

When the terms of trade turned against Thai commodities in the early 1980s, its technocrats paired a long-term reorientation toward FDI-driven industrialization with the more immediate benefits of mass tourism. At the center of its tourism promotion campaigns stood the image of a happy, peaceful kingdom. Agriculture-dependent growth had coincided with decades of inadequate investment in human capital. But that posed little obstacle to the growth from the mid-1980s of either the factory or the vacation sector.

 

Globalization and the 1997 financial crisis served in the end only to reinforce Thailand's status as a shopping paradise, land of luxury spas and destination for tropical beach tourism. They also increasingly distanced Thailand's urban elites from the majority of their countrymen, urban and rural alike. Beneath the superficial, philistine trendiness and innumerable Italian restaurants of globalized, Anglophone Bangkok, however, deeper patterns in Thai society unfolded.

 

[color:red]Thailand has become too complex to resemble any more a fairy-tale kingdom. Even poorer citizens enjoy access to transportation, communications and the media. Not only did they appreciate the ousted Thaksin government's perhaps cynical appeal for their support through village development funds and low-cost health care, but they understood the bigoted backlash against those measures among some of their more affluent countrymen. A royalist military coup against Mr. Thaksin in 2006 and the shabby judicial ouster of two of his proxies from the premiership in 2008 put paid to any notion that opponents of his corruption and creeping authoritarianism, along with many of those others uncomfortable with Thailand's new mass society, played by any discernible rules.[/color]Among the rules tossed overboard has been respect for electoral outcomes. It is clear that some in the royalist camp would just as soon never see another genuine election, if only 21st century international norms permitted. Graver still, that profound crisis is hitting in the final years of a royal reign that has coincided with Thailand's long run of apparent good luck. A long period of royal mourning could serve as a pretext for the postponement of polls.

 

How long Thailand's peculiar civil war can remain nonviolent remains the nagging question. A year ago, ugly, calculated violence characterized red-shirt protests on the streets of Bangkok. While this year red-shirt protests have remained impressively non-violent, recent weeks have seen unexplained grenade attacks in the Thai capital, though without loss of life to date.

 

Thailand's image of social harmony has given way to ideological polarization. Before that polarization gives way to tragic violence Thailand needs a dramatic fix. But its political scene sorely lacks credible, disinterested figures to serve as midwives to the more egalitarian Thailand whose inevitability Mr. Abhisit and his backers deny at their country's peril.

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304198004575171724075109414.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

[Wallenda]

You would never guess reading this article that Thaksin had been gutting the constitution of any serious democratic checks and balances against centralizing power in the hands of one person, himself, and seemed well on the way toward making himself autocrat. Also non-existent here is how he was the most corrupt leader they've had yet, something his supporters can't deny. He's filthy, there's no getting around it.

 

Of course it's polarized now, and bringing T back would make it even much more so. (these protessts are nothing next to what would happen if he came back) That just isn't a way forward. Many of their complaints are totally legit, such as some pointed out here in this piece, but to say you're against corruption and then want to bring back Mr Supercorrupt as your leader -- it doesn't add up. Also begs the question: are you seriously upset about corruption, or is this just a bogus issue?

 

Honestly, if T was out of the picture, as in not alive anymore, I'd be on the reds' side.

 

As long as he's alive, the movement looks like a wolf in sheeps' clothing

 

Many of the worst dictators came to power on the back of populist movements like his.

 

So the choice for the future is, who do you want in power: a remarkably corrupt guy with autocratic leanings who imagines he has wide support for anything he wants to do, or a non-corrupt leader who's aware he has to repair a broken government that doesn't do enough for the lower classes.

 

I jsut don't get why anyone here (coming from democratic countries) would opt for the former.

 

To me it seems obvious he wants to be the next Ferdinand Marcos, leader for life.

[Flashermac]

<< typically more affluent royalists of the "yellow shirt" movement >>

 

 

Another effing wanker who has never seen a Yellow Shirt in the flesh. I suppose he thinks the Red leaders are poor upcountry farmers. Fold up your parachute and take a hike, Montesano.

 

 

 

 

[Mentors]

<< typically more affluent royalists of the "yellow shirt" movement >>

 

 

Another effing wanker who has never seen a Yellow Shirt in the flesh. I suppose he thinks the Red leaders are poor upcountry farmers. Fold up your parachute and take a hike, Montesano.

 

 

 

 

yes yes, we know, every article who is not in line with the controlled thai medias is wrong.

 

 

 

[Guest lazyphil]

no, flash appears to be saying he's seen red/yellow shirt wearers and they dont fit stereotypes....well, thats how i read it anyway....

[Mentors]

no, flash appears to be saying he's seen red/yellow shirt wearers and they dont fit stereotypes....well, thats how i read it anyway....

 

yep

[WorldFun]

wendella :bow:

that's really how it is.

but right now the bad side of the reds are showing as they start the final 'showdown' without the people's backing...

good luck to thailand & happy new years again!

[Flashermac]

Ah, but you speak English.

 

So ...

 

Ich habe die Rote und die Gelbe gesehen -- beide sind "Prai". Aber die Führer sind schmutzige Reiche SOBs!

 

 

This nonsense about making it class warfare is NARISCHKEIT! What Takky has done is turn the country folks against the city folks. Now ain't that just Jim Dandy.

 

 

[Flashermac]

p.s. Apologies to all for my rusty and crappy German. I haven't spoken it since my grandmother died.

 

 

[WorldFun]

it's all robin hood all over again