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Property Boom and Bust Cycles


gobbledonk

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Artiew,

I just purchased a run down semi in the heart of Newtown, 2km out of Sydney CBD 2BR for $435000, its not getting cheaper. Onto Thailand I am looking in investing in the new year in a hotel type of business, in Pattaya of course. Just weighing up my options, between 5-10million baht. Still dont know if I will take the risk, time will tell. I am watching the market quite closely and the only thing that worries me is the thought of any terror attack could lead in the economy going belly up.

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I feel like I'm the perpetual bear lurking in the woods.

 

If your thinking about doing an investment, best thing is to do it as soon as possible to reap in cash during the next two years.

 

I'm bullish on the next year and much less so going on after that.

 

Thais in general don't seem to have forethought about the future (the syndrome of ripping off a customer for $10 now instead of $3 in perpetuity). I'm afraid for the economy as a whole. Some decent articles in the English papers today about residential real estate market and how it is bullish. Then there's a real nice article about economists concerns about the economy in the long term and how the Gov't is going to be running a very large deficit compounded by it's current high debt to GDP. Also remember that a significant portion of the yankee bnod issue is going to fund shortfalls this year. What about next? The issues between the two articles (bullish about residential market, and consumer driven economy spurred by Gov't) are going to come to loggerheads.

 

If your going to wait, then I'd say wait 3-4 years to see if Thailand can make the current consumer driven economy kick start the business side. Otherwise there will be a downslide in real estate again and you'd get taken to the cleaners.

 

<<burp>>

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