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I suppose that authoritarian regimes think that they have a 'win' scenario.

I don't think they have.

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I've seen the video and its very interesting but the southeastern countries (Laos, Vietnam, etc,) aren't going to invade China. China and Vietnam have been fighting off and on for several hundreds years but these days are they tied economically at the hip. India and China may end up with some border skirmishes which may evolve into a limited shooting war but no way 2 nuke powers are going to go full scale. Furthermore, money will conquer differences via China's new Silk Road initiative. 

So, yes, China will have some issues just like any other major power including America with a large population with dual loyalty to Mexico which would leave the Mexican president a de factor major player in Mexican related issues. Russia has a ton of issues from the moslem population in the south as well as chilly border tensions with said China. 

This is and will be China's century where we will probably see China replace America as the visible world dominant power. I think this will happen after the next crash where China will be massively hit, especially in real estate but it will be able to emerge from it much faster and better than America. America has no plan and my guess from a purely economic view is that America will be so badly off economically America will contract militarily and politically. Especially, as I believe, we will see Presidents with democratic socialist view and the country, including the Republicans dragged to the left. The young generation have given up on Capitalism as we know it because they have seen no benefit to themselves. 

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I'm a realest. Americans are wishing, hoping, deflecting, minimizing China's emergence instead of having a cohesive, thought out plan. China has one. They think 50 even 100 years into the future and make adjustments when needed. 

I would not be surprised to see a global depression with the next crash. Yes, I said the "D" word. We were >>>this close <<< to one in 2008 and this time there are bubbles we didn't have before. The last one was housing based. This time around we have at least a handful of bubbles that we didn't have prior and we spent the last 11 years making it bigger like a bubble gum bubble thanks to QE (Quantitative Easing) which is just a made up government word for "we are propping up the economy artificially". 

China will have a very huge, painful collapse in housing primarily as well as a few other areas. No one really knows their numbers. They have 2 sets of books. One they tell us and the other is never, ever as good as they say or if its negative news its going to be worse than they say and no one but them will know just how bad. But they do have a plan for the inevitable and we don't. Obama spent 8 years giving us numbers that weren't real. He didn't make them up, those were a gift from prior administrations that counted things like unemployment with stats that were not real. Trump pointed that out in the election and then used the same numbers. 

The crash may scuttle China's new Silk Road initiative, a massively ambitious project that if it comes to fruition sees them controlling world trade directly or indirectly. That coupled with their plan to remove the American dollar as the world reserve currency is their end game. If (or I think when) the dollar is no longer the reserve currency, that's all she wrote for America's global dominance economically. 

Enter China stage left. 

 

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My worry is that China will subsume Laos even more than it already has,  mind you, I'll be history before it makes too much difference.

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Yes, and with Russia and the USA, quietly rattling sabres in the twilight,  just outside the pool of light, cast from the yellow hair on Trump's head, the dance that is the jockeying for stance of the world's larger military forces, continues.

And whilst I'm on a tangent, with China facing Hond Kong dissent, little rocket man being ignored, various other populists seeing declines in their support and Putin seemingly losing popularity, at home, I wonder when the piss tape will surface....

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Bannon is smart. He has a canny insight into international things BUT at the end of the day, he is a white nationalist. When he ran Bretibart, they had a column specifically called "Black Crime". Also, he vocally said at the time he ran Breitbart that they would embrace the 'alt right'. That said, it doesn't mean he is wrong on China. I think he is partially right about HK but its not a unique view that China is facing a similar social revolt that it did at Tiananmen. That said, the ONLY way I can see HKers succeeding is if a specific group of countries support them and I'm at pains to think of which countries of significance who will? America won't. One would think the UK might given their history with HK but as yet, they haven't. None of China's major trading partners in the region will because they rely on Chinese trade. Russia doesn't give a shit. The EU's trade with China is growing and the EU is facing a recession and needs all the trade it can to stave that off. 

Eventually, China will crush it one way or another. I feel for the HKers but its not sustainable. China will find the leaders or the voices and may imprison them and there will be some media outrage by major media like CNN, The Guardian, etc, but that won't do enough, it will take massive threats of an economic nature. Military threat is a non starter. No one, not America, Russia or anyone wants to take on China. 

 

 

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