SARS VIRUS

[StoneSoup]

There is a pretty good SARS timeline at http://www.cbc.ca/news/indepth/background/sars_timeline.html

 

Referenced site being a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation website, it describes a total of 19 SARS deaths in Canada. Interesting to note the ages of victims:

 

#1 78 years

#2 44 years (son of victim #1)

#3 "70's"

#4 Not stated

#5 "70's"

#6 "70's"

#7 57 years

#8 Not stated

#9 "Elderly man"

#10 ,#12, # 13 - "Three ladies in their 70's and 80's"

#11 74 years

#14 99 years (hey, we all have to go sometime)

#15 64 years

#16 through #19 Not stated

 

OK, so bad colds, influenza, pneumonia - and now SARS - tend to kill old people. Come to think of it, EVERYONE dies, sooner or later. You don't die of "boredom". You die of some illness that your aging body just can't muster the "juice" to fight - this one last battle in each life.

 

If you don't die of stroke, or heart disease, or cancer - I have to think that most people's last battle is going to involve some illness that causes respiratory problems - and then death.

 

Hey - WE ALL HAVE TO GO SOMETIME.

 

Now - I have yet to see anything that suggests that SARS is a particularly serious and unusual threat to most healthy young people. The CBC timeline outlined above suggested that exactly two people under the age of 64 had died of SARS in Canada - one of a handful of "epidemic" sites outside China.

 

Well - I don't like to get a bad case of the flu any more than the next guy. If they want to lock up everyone with sniffles and a fever over 100oF - no problem by me.

 

But - this seems like an indescribably small threat to the lives of most posters on this board (hey, if any of you are in your late '90's, my hat is off to you - 'go get 'em!)

 

"Let the good times roll!"

SS

[Guest]

Last I heard there were fewer than 300 cases worldwide. That seems like a very small drop in a very large bucket to me. It sure isn't going to keep me from my trip to LOS. Five days and counting... ::

[chilli13]

"This may not have come from the Daily Mail, but sadly there are very few papers in England which I believe give a reasonable representation of the truth."

 

thank god the UK are not censoring the internet - yet

and thank good for google.news

[chilli13]

hey my hat of to you as well

[check_bin_krap]

"And then contrary to AIDS, SARS can be healed, you don't even need a doctor or medicaments (remember the mortal rate is 5 %) "

.....................................................................

There has been discussion in the media on that number recently. Some claim that the correct will be closer to 15%. I guess the truth is as usual somewhere in between.

 

The morality rate if one looks at people who have got it vs. deaths is 4836/293. That makes out 6 %. Its not a very good way to look at it, we don't know how many of these 4836 who will recover.

 

If we look at the current "check out" numbers (recovered/dead) its 2239 recovered and 293 dead. That makes out 11.5 %. Its still not accurate, as the correct way would be to follow a group who caught it at the same time until all have been dismissed or dead.

 

Canada which was mentioned earlier in this thread has a very high mortality rate, 77 recovered and 18 deaths. Maybe it struck at a hospital with a high rate of elders? The age statistics mentioned could indicate that.

 

I stink at maths, so my appologies if there are any miscalculations here. The numbers are from the latest WHO report:

 

http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/2003_04_26/en/

 

[Guest]

Says check_bin_krap:

---

"And then contrary to AIDS, SARS can be healed, you don't even need a doctor or medicaments (remember the mortal rate is 5 %) "

.....................................................................

There has been discussion in the media on that number recently. Some claim that the correct will be closer to 15%. I guess the truth is as usual somewhere in between.

 

The morality rate if one looks at people who have got it vs. deaths is 4836/293. That makes out 6 %. Its not a very good way to look at it, we don't know how many of these 4836 who will recover.

 

If we look at the current "check out" numbers (recovered/dead) its 2239 recovered and 293 dead. That makes out 11.5 %. Its still not accurate, as the correct way would be to follow a group who caught it at the same time until all have been dismissed or dead.

 

Canada which was mentioned earlier in this thread has a very high mortality rate, 77 recovered and 18 deaths. Maybe it struck at a hospital with a high rate of elders? The age statistics mentioned could indicate that.

 

I stink at maths, so my appologies if there are any miscalculations here. The numbers are from the latest WHO report:

 

http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/2003_04_26/en/

---

 

Listen please and try to understand that Canada is likely the only country that has actually admitted actual true numbers concerning SARS.

There are other countries that are not so open, and have been under reporting, we all know that.

 

20 people in Canada have died withs Sars being one of the factors, most old and already sick, Sars was just another factor, not the total cause.

 

If you are so worried about Sars, which has killed approx. 300 people worldwide, then you must also be afraid to step outside your door, because you have a far greater chance of being run over by a tuk-tuk driver who is late for dinner.

[check_bin_krap]

An interesting update from WHO concerning points raised in this thread (from www.who.int):

 

Update 49 - SARS case fatality ratio, incubation period

 

 

7 May 2003

 

Case fatality ratio

WHO has today revised its initial estimates of the case fatality ratio of SARS. The revision is based on an analysis of the latest data from Canada, China, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, and Viet Nam.

 

On the basis of more detailed and complete data, and more reliable methods, WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14% to 15%.

 

The likelihood of dying from SARS in a given area has been shown to depend on the profile of the cases, including the age group most affected and the presence of underlying disease. Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older.

 

A case fatality ratio measures the proportion of all people with a disease who will die from the disease. In other words, it measures the likelihood that a disease will kill its host, and is thus an important indicator of the severity of a disease and its significance as a public health problem. The likelihood that a person will die of SARS could be influenced by factors related to the SARS virus, the route of exposure and dose (amount) of virus, personal factors such as age or the presence of another disease, and access to prompt medical care.

 

Many factors complicate efforts to calculate a case fatality ratio while an outbreak is still evolving. Deaths from SARS typically occur after several weeks of illness. Full recovery may take even longer. While an epidemic is still evolving, only some of the individuals affected by the disease will have died or recovered. Only at the end of an epidemic can an absolute value be calculated, taking into account total deaths, total recoveries and people lost to follow-up. Calculating case fatality as the number of deaths reported divided by the number of cases reported irrespective of the time elapsed since they became ill gives an underestimate of the true case fatality ratio.

 

One method of overcoming this difficulty is to calculate the case fatality ratio using only those cases whose final outcome ? died or recovered ? is known. However, this method, when applied before an outbreak is over, gives an overestimate because the average time from illness onset to death for SARS is shorter than the average time from illness onset to recovery.

 

With these methods, estimates of the case fatality ratio range from 11% to 17% in Hong Kong, from 13% to 15% in Singapore, from 15% to 19% in Canada, and from 5% to 13% in China.

 

A more accurate and unbiased estimation of case fatality for SARS can be obtained with a third method, survival analysis. This method relies on detailed individual data on the time from illness onset to death or full recovery, or time since illness onset for current cases. Using this method, WHO estimates that the case fatality ratio is 14% in Singapore and 15% in Hong Kong.

 

In Viet Nam, where SARS has been contained and measurement is more straightforward, case fatality was comparatively low, at 8%. One explanation for this is the large number of total cases that occurred in younger, previously healthy health care workers.

 

Incubation period

WHO has also reviewed estimates of the incubation period of SARS, using individual case data. On the basis of this review, WHO continues to conclude that the current best estimate of the maximum incubation period is 10 days.

 

The incubation period, which is the time from exposure to a causative agent to onset of disease, is particularly important as it forms the basis for many recommended control measures, including contact tracing and the duration of home isolation for contacts of probable SARS cases. Knowledge about the incubation period can also help physicians make diagnostic decisions about whether the presenting symptoms and clinical history of a patient point to SARS or to some other disease.

 

The incubation period can vary from one case to another according to the route by which the person was exposed, the dose of virus received, and other factors, including immune status. Estimates of the incubation period are further complicated by the fact that some patients have had opportunities for multiple exposures to the virus. The particular exposure that caused disease may prove impossible to determine. For these reasons, the most reliable estimates of the incubation period are based on a study of cases having a single documented exposure to a known case.

 

In today?s review, WHO has analysed the incubation periods of individuals with well-defined single-point exposures in Singapore, Canada, and Europe. Findings support the original estimate of 10 days as the maximum incubation period.

 

However, one recently published analysis of data from Hong Kong estimates a longer maximum incubation period in a group of 57 patients. This analysis, which may be significant and important for disease control, will be studied in more detail. The longer incubation period could reflect differences in methodology, specificity of diagnosis, route of transmission, infectious dose, or other factors. Reliable diagnosis ? determining that all cases diagnosed as SARS are true cases of the disease ? has been particularly difficult to establish in this outbreak, as diagnosis is made based on a set of non-specific symptoms and clinical signs that are seen in several other diseases.

 

Prompt isolation

WHO continues to recommend the earliest possible isolation of all suspect and probable cases of SARS. A short time between onset of symptoms and isolation reduces opportunities for transmission to others. It also reduces the number of contacts requiring active follow-up, and thus helps relieve some of the burden on health services. In addition, prompt hospitalization gives patients the best chance of receiving possibly life-saving care should their condition take a critical course.

 

Update on cases and countries

As of today, a cumulative total of 6903 probable SARS cases and 495 deaths has been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 186 new cases and 17 deaths compared with yesterday. The new deaths occurred in China (5), Hong Kong SAR (11) and Taiwan (1).

 

 

[Guest]

Re: [color:"orange"]I feel confident enough in my status and hers to get one ans I know lots of people here who have through their advise and the embassy I will be fine.[/color]

 

As you're so confident, there's no need to offer you any more advice. I hope things work out OK.

 

Re: [color:"orange"]It's the virus, that is the worry seriously [/color]

 

As it is something that is so easily detected the worst case scenario I envisage - solely from a viewpoint of your visa concerns - is that medical checks on arrival/departure may eventually be enforced. IMHO, barring entire populations from obtaining visas because a very small percentage carry an easily detected virus is complete nonsense.

 

Re: [color:"orange"]Aren't you?[/color]

 

Concerned? No.

 

Re: [color:"orange"]In one way it doesn't bother me, it's when it comes home and it affects family or friends that you switch on.[/color]

 

Already switched on here. I have friends and family in Thailand, Laos, Hong Kong and Malaysia... and a impending visa application for my stepson to come to the UK. I'm obviously just a little less receptive to the crap dished out by the tabloid media.

 

Best wishes

[Guest]

Hmm, but nobody knows yet how many people are infected but don't show any symptoms. This would be a worst case scenario because they couldn't track the virus.

 

Best regards

[lembeh]

 

>carry an easily detected virus is

 

You have information that the rest of the world does not have?

-j-