Any currency traders watching the Baht?

[SiamIAm]

Its spiked back up to 41.28 from a low of around 37-38 in Feb-March. Great swing trade if you got in at the low...US dollar is gaining strength and Gold has just broken a 4 year up-trend. If Gold goes down, the dollar will continue to gain strength and we could see the Baht back up around 44-45 by the end of the year.

[short-time]

Any currency traders watching the Baht?

 

Well, yeah, I guess I qualify as a currency trader having lost more than $5000 over the past several months betting that the dollar would continue its downward slide. The Baht may go up or down regardless of the direction gold goes. I found out the hard way playing currencies is mighty risky business.

 

A bigger factor than gold on the value of the Baht may be that China announced yesterday they are planning on finally revaluing their currency against the dollar in the next 30 days. How much remains to be seen, and this should have an impact on Asian currencies in general ? logically increasing their value as well (it will also devalue the US dollar).

 

Many big investors are going to make a killing on this, but they already have their bets in place. If you want to play your hunch on the Baht, Everbank.com is a good place to do it.

 

Don?t bet the farm though and good luck.

 

ST

[Dude_Le_Rude]

ST,

 

 

interesting info,,,

thanks.

 

how do you think this will affect the YEN BAHT exchange rates?

 

 

thanks!

 

Peace

[OCgringo]

where did you see that China is revaluing the yuan ?

 

I did not see it on BBC website....

 

in fact just the opposite that it would not be rushed into doing it

 

OC

[short-time]

how do you think this will affect the YEN BAHT exchange rates?

 

No idea, however I?d like to add that currency speculation is a little different than say investing in stocks. For one thing, exchange rates fluctuate constantly, day and night, 365 days of the year. And they often fluctuate up and down hovering around an average for extended periods of time.

 

With stocks this is no big deal, and after extended cycles of rising and falling value you might decide to sell at what you paid and walk away with little loss other than the commissions paid.

 

Let?s look at a similar situation with currency. Say you invest 10,000 in currency X and it goes up 10%, good for you, you made 1000 and your balance is now 11,000. OK, next week it drops 10% - same, same right? WRONG! Do the math you now have 9,900 and if this pattern continues you can lose your ass in short order even though it?s trading at the same exchange rate you originally bought it at. Oscillating currencies can lead to insidious compounding losses which means you have to watch these investments very closely.

 

I saw one estimate that Warren Buffet may have lost as much as 20 Billion in currency speculation over the past year!

 

ST

[Dude_Le_Rude]

thanks ST,

 

it is just that some of my ready cash is in yen, some US dollars... so I like to know which is better to bring to LOS.

 

these days it seems like the Yen, but I am not an expert, by any means... and it has always seemed that I do better in Vegas than with currency speculation!

 

Peace!

[elef]

Hi,

 

the market is expecting future (within 1 week 0.5 %) rises of the american interest rate so the dollar is up. China is sitting with enormous amounts of dollars and they control the long-term value of the dollar.

 

elef

[junglesoup]

HI short-time sorry to hea about ur loss. I ve thought the baht wuld be quite interesting to trade as it stays within quite a narrow range for long periods.

 

Do you know if you can trade the baht using mini accounts? I trade currencys,mostly us dollar, sterling,yen,euro,CAD and some other majors. YOu can tarde using mini lots and thus build up a bank over time.

 

What do you base your trading on, fundamentals or technical analysis? I use technical analysis and don t even go near the news. I have some great resources you may be interested in that may be useful for you to trade currencys. PM if you would like to know about them. Take care,

chris.

[short-time]

I?m just an amateur and don?t expect to be investing in currencies again in the near future. For me, currencies as well as stocks are just too damn unpredictable right now. However, I think it?s safer to diversify into several currencies rather than picking just one ? like the Baht.

 

Basically I try to look at world trends and focus on countries positioned for strong future growth with natural resources. Despite the current rally of the US dollar I expect it to resume its devaluation in the near future, but who can say exactly when?

 

Thanks for the offer, but I?m pulling back on investments to lick my wounds for the time being.

 

ST

[Guest]

Speculating on changes in exchanges rate is risky business. Even George Soros - who was unfairly blamed for the Baht's massive decline in July of 1997 - got it wrong.

 

Stockmarkets in this part of the world (Asia) are very risky. There is little transparency, and only insiders and those who pay full time attention to the local markets seem to do well. Everyone else usually looses in the medium to long run. The regulators are weak and those who dominate the market usually have tremendous political power. Most "public" companies in Thailand are controlled by powerful families. CALPERS blacklisted Thailand's stock market for awhile.

 

This is bad for Thailand because it makes it very difficult to raise serious money in the equity markets. Consequently, a disproportionate amount of capital accumulation occurs here through bank debt. In many cases this involves connected lending where there is no real assessment of credit risk. And connected lending was the main cause of Thailand's financial crisis in 1997.

 

But you shouldn't confuse the nonsense that masquerades as equity markets here with stock markets in developed economies. Even with the tech stock bust and the great depression, the U.S. stock market has consistently delivered the best returns - just keep your portfolio diversified.