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Xenophobia could reverse Temasek -Shin deal


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Xenophobia could reverse Temasek Holdings-Shin Corp deal

 

As political camps clash, there are growing rumours that the Temasek-Shin Corp sale may be undone if anti-Thaksin rallies take on an anti-Singaporean pitch.

 

 

Such a scenario could force the Shinawatra and Damapong families to return the Bt73.3

 

 

billion Temasek paid them for their 49.6-per-cent combined stake.

 

 

The rumour is based on speculation that Temasek may exercise an option under the sales contract that allows it to cancel the deal should an unforeseeable event occurs.

 

 

Since the two families received the money on January 25, many people have also been curious about where they have stashed the fortune. The amount should earn about Bt6 million in interest a day.

 

 

There is another rumour flying around that a member of the Shinawatra clan is keen to invest about Bt50-Bt60 million to buy a master franchise license from Rotiboy, a bakery chain from Malaysia. Regardless of supporting evidence, however, the size of such a deal appears to be a drop in the bucket compared to the massive windfall that was brought in by Temasek.

 

 

Banking sources said the Bt73.3-billion sum had been deposited in Thai banks. But it appears unlikely that the sellers would place all their eggs in one basket. They have probably spread the booty across a number of big banks such as Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), Bangkok Bank (BBL), Kasikornbank and Krung Thai Bank.

 

 

SCB and BBL are likely to take the biggest portions because they lent Bt30 billion to Temasek to help fund the Shin takeover.

 

 

It is therefore quite likely that the two families will return the favour by depositing with them, so that they would not have to hunt for deposits elsewhere.

 

 

Financial sources say that the families have not yet spent a single baht of the money

 

 

they made in the mega deal.

 

 

As the political conflict escalates, however, there is also speculation that Thaksin and his family might flee with the cash.

 

 

But such an exit is far from easy.

 

 

To transfer even US$10 million (Bt400 million) out of the Kingdom requires the Bank of Thailand's approval.

 

 

Amounts less than that need to go through normal commercial banking procedures. Banks must keep such records and banking authorities can examine foreign exchange transactions at any time. No banks would likely execute such transfers without first informing the central bank, lest they risk losing their foreign currency trading license.

 

 

What about channelling money out of the country using underground outfits in Yaowarat? It's possible but such groups have limited resources.

 

 

They probably could not handle such a massive undertaking, one which would require several days to complete, while risking the chance of drawing attention from authorities.

 

 

Achara Deboonme

 

 

The Nation 01/03/2006

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