Khun_Kong Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 Another interesting analysis , from Asian Sentinel ... Rough waters in Thailand 05 January 2007 Junta looks ready to tighten its grip as coup rumors fly The awareness that it is one thing to seize power, and quite another thing to govern may finally be dawning on the royalist generals who booted out Thailandâ??s government in September. The junta that dismantled a functional, if imperfect, democratic system with the promise of putting in place something better has made the country less stable and must watch out for new threats even from within its own ranks as the political uncertainty in Bangkok seems to grow by the hour. In the wake of the New Yearâ??s Eve bombings that claimed three lives and injured scores, rumors of a second coup against the existing junta spread quickly on Thursday after troop movements were detected around the capital. Although some military and diplomatic sources said the incident was nothing more than a normal troop rotation blown out of proportion, others theorized that generals led by Saprang Kalayanamitr, an assistant to junta leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin, were ready to overthrow Sonthi and the military-appointed government of Surayud Chulanont. â??My boss has been too nice to those who have ill intentions for the country and the people,â? General Saprang told a radio station late Thursday night, lending credence to a theory that some within the junta are prepared to force their would-be allies to take a stronger line against ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his cronies. â??From now on, we would adjust our strategy and get tough on those people.â? The junta now has to consolidate power, shore up its own cohesiveness and also be on the alert for disgruntled supporters of Thaksin, especially in the ranks of the police force, his one-time power base. Oh, and there is still the ongoing bloody insurgency in the Muslim regions in the far south. The change of power in Bangkok has done nothing to ease that situation, either. To make matters worse, all of this is taking place within the opaque confines of the Thai elite, a world of shifting loyalties, palace intrigues and, now, potentially bloody internecine military politics. In an effort to calm nerves, Sonthi went on TV Thursday night and Friday morning to deny the coup rumors. He insisted that the Council for National Security, as the junta calls itself, remains unified. â??These losers are doing everything they can to discredit the September. 19 coup,â? Sonthi told Army-run Channel 5. â??They are doing everything to show that the country is in chaos and the CNS can't restore peace as we have promisedâ?¦. They are trying to tell the people that the CNS and the government have no credibility.â? Chaos or whatever you wish to call it, certainly elections, tentatively scheduled for October, look a long way away as contending forces in the capital, none of them readily identifiable, jostle for power. This is a long way from the royalist-instigated coup, in which military forces were met by civilians in Bangkok bearing flowers and enthusiastic opponents of Thaksinâ??s corruption and heavy handed assault on civil liberties proclaimed that a new kind of â??smiling coupâ? had been invented in Thailand. As for Thursdayâ??s incident, sources said Saprang and company planned to oust the military-appointed government, rip up the interim charter, put Thaksinâ??s family under house arrest and seize their assets. They also wanted to arrest former Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the most vocal junta critic, who also has been suggested as a suspect in the December 31 bombings. This element of the junta believes, as Saprang said, that Sonthi and Surayud have not done enough to crack down on Thaksin loyalists, allowing them to regroup. Saprang, who is vying to replace Sonthi as army chief when the junta leader is scheduled to retire in October, wants to take a harder line. Sources said the planned coup was foiled because Saprang did not have the support of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. As Saprang, Sonthi and Surayud met for talks Thursday night, the king never responded to requests for a meeting, leading the three to strike a compromise, sources said, which would see them flexing their military might against Thaksin loyalists and others. Whatever Thursday nightâ??s events portend, the turbulent, opaque maneuvering of the past week makes it seem that the goal of a more democratic Thailand after Thaksinâ??s removal may be a pipe dream. Rather, conservative military forces appear ready to tighten their grip on power as struggles within the ranks rise to the surface, setting the stage for continued unease and potential violence. Many analysts speculate whether Sonthi, generally regarded as a professional soldier who is looking forward to retirement, can keep the armed forces unified before the October elections. â??Democracy in many countries is not free; people have to fight for democracy,â? Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political and military analyst at Chulalongkorn University, told Asia Sentinel. â??No leaders will give democracy to the people easily, so there is going to be a struggle. Since the military took power, the people must fight to gain back democracy. I can only hope it's a peaceful one.â? A poll released Friday by Assumption University found that the governmentâ??s popularity plummeted after the New Yearâ??s Eve blasts. Just 48.5 percent of 1,600 Bangkok residents polled by the university said they support Surayud after the explosions, down from 90 percent when the junta appointed him premier in October. Potentially more worrisome for the generals is a growing lack of trust in the military. Sixty-three percent of respondents said they trust the police â?? which the generals are trying to restructure and was the launching pad for Thaksinâ??s rise to power and wealth â?? to protect them from future attacks, while only 53 percent had confidence in the army and 11 percent in Surayud himself. On Thursday, Surayud told the public to expect more â??life-threateningâ? events in the near future, and Friday he said the unrest could continue for several months. After the bombings, the divide between Surayudâ??s government and the generals seems to be growing. While the prime minister has claimed that no concrete evidence has surfaced to make arrests, the generals have consistently fingered rogue military elements connected to Thaksin. But no matter how much heat Surayud takes, analysts say itâ??s quite unlikely he will be removed by force, since King Bhumibol supported him explicitly in his annual birthday speech last December. â??The king gave Surayud unconditional support,â? an Asian diplomat said. â??Whoever takes Surayud out will be a villain, maybe even worse than Thaksin.â? Garnering the kingâ??s support for any major political moves is absolutely crucial in Thailand, where the monarch has near godlike status. When Sonthi staged the September 19 coup, he was granted an audience with the king within hours, leaving the masses no doubt as to what their beloved king thought. Then the coup leaders appointed Surayud, who served on the kingâ??s 19-member privy council, to lead the interim government. In December the king blessed Surayudâ??s government in his annual birthday speech. â??For old people in the government, they have no greed for themselves and deserve a compliment for their willingness to continue to serve the country although they have long worked and should have their retirement time,â? he said. The strategy of those who may want Surayud to leave may just be to make his life as difficult as possible. Surayud already said he would resign if recent allegations that he illegally purchased land on a forest reserve, reportedly dredged up by Chavalitâ??s aides, proved to be true. â??The groups that want Surayud out may just be spreading coup rumors to increase the pressure so much that he just resigns,â? said a Western diplomat who follows politics closely. â??If that happens, it would be hard to find a replacement. If they get really desperate to find somebody, then these guys like Chavalit and [traditional politician] Banharn [silpa-archa] may bizarrely come back on the scene.â? Itâ??s hard to imagine that the coup leaders would trust Chavalit to take over the civilian government, but there is typically a fine line between friends and enemies here. For sure, Chavalit has taunted the coup leaders. He accused Saprang of â??gross incompetenceâ? for not making arrests on the bombings after claiming to know who did it. Chavalit, though, is a consummate survivor. He remains close to retired general Prem Tinsulanonda, who heads the privy council and is widely seen as the mastermind of the coup. In desperate times, desperate measures may be called for. Chavalit also served in Thaksin first government as Deputy Prime Minister. In any case, it remains to be seen if Saprang will get his wish to crack down on Thaksinâ??s family. That could signal his growing influence. Saprang, General Anupong Paochinda and General Montri Sangkhasap are all in a race to succeed Sonthi as army chief in next Octoberâ??s military reshuffle. â??The April reshuffle will be an intense period, and negotiations have likely already started,â? Panitan said. â??The generals need to move people into position now so when April comes along they are able to control things more tightly. People like Khun Saprang and Khun Anupong will likely look to consolidate power.â? If the two are split, they sure didnâ??t give that impression when they met diplomats on Thursday to â??clarifyâ? events after the bombings. Dressed in civilian clothes (â??so as not to scare the farang (foreigners),â? one diplomat said), Anupong and Saprang coolly explained that the bombings could not be connected to the insurgency that has claimed nearly 2,000 lives since January 2004, and blamed political opponents. The statements from the generals were much stronger than those from the Foreign Ministry, which, at the same briefing, claimed the government had no evidence of anything. Diplomats noted that no police were present at the briefing, even though they are leading the investigation. It also struck them that two generals were needed to represent the CNS, which may have signaled the emerging rivalry. At one point during the briefing, Saprang made the roundabout argument that the bombings could only further delay elections, which is not what the junta wants. This argument seizes on the belief that the Thai public would finally get upset if they thought the army wanted to stick around permanently. By holding elections, the generals could get off the tigerâ??s back as soon as possible. Members of the former ruling Thai Rak Thai party, unsurprisingly, are skeptical. â??Saprang wants to make sure that another Thaksin is not possible,â? said a former MP. â??He wants a Prem-style bureaucratic polity that will keep him or his associates in power.â? From the looks of it, the constitution-drafting committee may be thinking along the same lines. Some members have already come out in favor of an unelected prime minister, and many have said rules that promoted strong parties such as Thaksinâ??s Thai Rak Thai may be scrapped. In its wake would be weak political parties and a strong military, which would essentially retain the right to topple any government by force. The military has made headway in expanding the Internal Security Operations Command, a Cold War leftover that nearly faded into history in the late 1990s. The coup makers have since attempted to regroup Thailandâ??s entire security apparatus under it, including the police, with the army chief in control. Sonthi earlier said the coup leaders would add 60,000 new staff to operate â??security missionsâ? in 76 provinces. These would include monitoring political opponents. Although many doubt Southern insurgents were behind the New Yearâ??s Eve blasts, the situation in Thailandâ??s southern provinces has deteriorated rapidly over the past few months, with daily assassinations almost doubling in the previous two months. Arson attacks have also risen dramatically. â??The south has almost become ungovernable,â? said Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based security analyst with Janeâ??s Information Group. With the insurgency emboldened, Surayudâ??s government has tried to push through controversial measures, including the elimination of farm subsidies, the imposition of capital controls and even a ban on alcohol advertising. For sure, the ambitious agenda requires more political capital than the generals can muster, particularly now that their reputation as white knights coming to save the day has been stained. â??You canâ??t undo whatâ??s been done in the past five years in just three months,â? said Panitan. â??To take on police reform or push forward with corruption allegations will require more power. So the military may now take additional measures to get more control.â? Nearly everyone sees trouble ahead. As the juntaâ??s opponents step up their attacks, the military may further tighten the screws on civil liberties. That thought evokes uncomfortable memories of earlier mass protests, like the ones in October 1973 and May 1992, both of which ended in bloodshed. â??Itâ??s going to be rough seas ahead,â? an analyst said. â??Uncertainties are all around. But Thai people clearly want democracy, so sooner or later democracy has to return. The military has to find a way to accommodate that.â? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 I find it interesting that this is being referred to as a power struggle between the old and new factions with the old being the Taksin supporters. What I see is actually the current government is actually made up mostly of old (pre Taksin) politicians and military. So though I agree there is power struggle going on and the bombs may have been a statement by one side, I would not refer to them as the old power, but rather the new power that has been thrown out. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Toad Posted January 7, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 In a round about sort of way both articles are saying the same. Summed up they are saying there is a massive power struggle going on between what I will call the new money (Taksin/Chinese) and the Old Guard (the Military and old guard Thais). But there are those in the Old Guard who would like to see New Money buried once and for all. that in it self has raised the stakes as Taksin and cronies thought they are going to come back. They are literally playing with there own futures and Thailand is the ball. My friend Flashermac is maybe a little too laid back on this one. These are big players with big egos and it looks like second is going to be a long way behind whereas in the past coups seem to have effected few in the long term: this time you could see some serious casualties and ex-minister in jail: very un-Thai! A wrong move by a powerful person could escalate this into a very public and very messy situation. In the past Taksin has shown little discretion and has tended to jump with out looking first. That could create a little spark that sets Thailand alight. Diplomats and careful words and deeds are needed as well as a firm and accurate hand on the wheel of state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 As our firend Flashermac has pointed out many times, Thialand is controlled by a very small group of families. In the past they have been on the whole "nice" to each other and have not put each other in jail unless forced into it. Appears these unwritten rules are about to be broken. In my opinion one of the things that really scared the old guard was when control of TPI was finally taken from the Leophairatana family (after 8 years of litigation) and given to PTT (run by Taksin supporters). This was unheard of and I bet caused huge concern to a number of poeple. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 Ex-PM Pridi Phanomyong died in exile in France. Ex-PM Plaek Pibunsongkram died in exile in Japan. Other big shot politicians also spent their last years living abroad. There are precedents for violence, but one has to go back to the 1950s -- when the Navy seized Pibunsongkram and held him hostage on a warship, until the Air Force decided to take the Army's side and bombed the Navy! Since then the rule has always been that Thai troops do not fire on other Thai troops. I don't see that changing. Wonder if Mr T realises what he is doing. I wouldn't bet on his side. p.s. Prem has finally spoken out, condemning the bombings as cowardly. He says if people aren't happy with the government, then take it out on the government -- not innocent bystanders. And when Prem speaks, everyone knows whose thoughts he is stating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun004 Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 Summed up they are saying there is a massive power struggle going on between what I will call the new money (Taksin/Chinese) and the Old Guard (the Military and old guard Thais). But there are those in the Old Guard who would like to see New Money buried once and for all. Best summary I've seen yet. Well done, Lord Toad. -- Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Toad Posted January 8, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2007 Yes exile not jail as to history this is in todays Nation by my favourite Nation comentator. It takes up your historical points! And maybe Thai troops are not shooting (yet) at Thai troops but killing poeple with bombs is just about teh same! http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/08/opinion/opinion_30023523.php The full version The parallels between 1976 and 2006 The coup was enthusiastically welcomed by the Bangkok middle classes. The man chosen to be prime minister was known to enjoy the trust of His Majesty the King. The coup group tore up the existing constitution and set out a long programme to create a replacement. They explained that the coup was needed because of social division, and they promised to bring about national reconciliation. September 19, 2006? Yes, but this same description also fits the coup on October 6, 1976 (though that coup differed by being much bloodier). The 1976 era was also the last time Bangkok suffered from bombs targeted at ordinary people to stir up political tension. Most significantly, both coups were set against the background of a deep rift in society along the fault line between city and village. In detail, the politics of this divide were immensely different in these two years. In 1976, Bangkok felt threatened by a Maoist insurgency with links to revolutionary regimes across its eastern borders, a peasant movement which used grassroots organisation and mass demonstrations to demand debt relief and tenancy, and a student movement which sympathised with rural demands and gave them extra ideological force. In 2006, Bangkok felt threatened by a political leader and a political party which had built unprecedented support in the rural areas of the North and the Northeast by delivering a range of populist programmes, and promising even more. But the similarity between the two events, and the fact many of the key players today were also part of post-1976 events (in more junior roles), makes it worth looking at what happened after the 1976 coup. After 1976, the establishment solution was a formula of "managed democracy" with three main parts: constitutional engineering to produce a system that was democratic in form but insulated against the risk of mass takeover; military oversight of political activities from top to bottom; and a public campaign for national unity around the institution of the monarchy. Probably, the first two parts are being used again. The constitution under which parliament resumed in 1979 brought back an elected lower house, but with two key provisions. The prime minister did not have to be a member of parliament. The Senate was appointed, and had veto power over the budget, no-confidence motions, economic bills and matters of national security. The first provision in effect allowed the military to appoint the prime minister for the next nine years, and also to fill several other key ministries (Interior, Foreign). The Senate, packed with generals, senior bureaucrats and sympathisers, gave the military premier a cushion against any opposition. It is no surprise that both of these provisions have been advocated openly and strongly by members of the current coup group or their close associates. After 1976, the military set out to oversee political activity from top to bottom. Again, we can already see clear parallels in the aftermath of the 2006 coup. Martial law has been retained in the upcountry areas considered "sensitive". The Army has set up a force of 13,625 troops backed with a budget of half a billion baht to police political activity at the grassroots. The coup group has talked of converting village officers back from elected representatives into appendages of the bureaucracy so that they can act as the "eyes and ears" of government - jargon that comes right out of the post-1976 era. The coup leaders have also been holding mass rallies in "sensitive" provinces, at a time when no others are allowed to hold such meetings. They are building direct links between the Army and local leaders. There are also military efforts to manage civil society groups through a mixture of co-option and intimidation, which again recalls the situation that prevailed from 1976 to the mid-1980s. Finally, there is a plan to revive the Internal Security Operational Command (ISOC), the agency that coordinated the post-1976 campaign of military oversight. The head of the junta has talked of remodelling ISOC on the model of the US Department of Homeland Security. Will it work? The intervening three decades have seen big changes. The massive increase in wealth has seen a multiplication in the size and number of the interests that are protected and promoted by political means. People have become better educated, more politically aware, and more sensitive to issues of rights and liberties. Surveillance and suppression may be no easier to resist than they were thirty years ago, but they will be much more strongly resented. The fact that the expression of rural discontent has moved from the revolutionary cell and street demonstration to the electoral process is a form of progress which makes democracy much more difficult to manage. In truth, the coup initiated by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin fits into a longer sequence running from 1947 through 1957 and 1976 to 2006. In each case, the political establishment decided that the democratic process was not working properly and had to be halted and redesigned. In each case, politicians who had won power through the electoral process, by fair means or foul, were somehow deemed to be a danger to the country - too weak, too strong, or too something. In each case, support from royalist figures helped to legitimise the hiccup in Thailand's political history. And in each case, key figures ended up in virtual exile. Looking back over the whole sequence from 1947 through 1957 to 1976 carries another message. The coup was only a beginning. The coup-makers soon fell out. After 1947, the royalist and militarist partners in the coup soon diverged, and a series of aftershocks brought the military to dominance. After 1957, Field Marshal Sarit installed a military premier but then carried out a second coup against his own nominee. After 1976, the military again removed the civilian premier, and the aftershocks continued through coup, counter-coup and failed coup for the next nine years. It looks like Thai politics will be in turmoil for a while. But when and how will it recover some stability? Chang Noi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted January 8, 2007 Report Share Posted January 8, 2007 I like Chang Noi. And I recall that after the 1976 coup there was a serious of smaller coups every few years. It got to be that every time you heard military music on the radio, you figured there had been a change in the top politicians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jitagawn Posted January 8, 2007 Report Share Posted January 8, 2007 I am fascinated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 8, 2007 Report Share Posted January 8, 2007 Me too, but could we see the like again? Surely times have changed???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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