Lord Toad Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 In yesterdays Nation there was a leader I think all should read. I have been saying this in private since NYE and the bombs. The power struggle is clear and it does look like serious forces on each side are facing off and it is escalating but....... Could Thailand really become another Iraq? The link is http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/05/opinion/opinion_30023316.php Or the article Stakes at a deadly high in struggle between 'old' and 'new' powers The year 2007 will mark another dark period for the Kingdom. The bomb blasts that hit Bangkok on New Year's Eve signal the beginning of another phase in the power struggle between the "new power" and the "old power". The outcome is anybody's guess at the moment. The bomb blasts also sent out a strong message that the remnants of the old regime are ready to cross swords in an eye for an eye dual with General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the head of the Council for National Security (CNS), and the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. The battle will become fiercer if both sides fail to cut a deal. The stakes are very high in this power play. Thailand is a country that is ruled by not more than 100 members of three rival groups: the military, the police, and the old-time political elite. They know what their rivals are up to. If they could agree on sharing the benefits, the whole country would be able to move on. Until that happens, they will pull the strings behind the scenes under the camouflage of democracy, or half-baked democracy, whatever you call it. You would be kidding yourself if you believe in the power of the people or democracy for the people at this stage of Thailand's political development. Coups may destroy democracy but the electoral process does not guarantee democracy either. At the end of the day, the old faces still rule over Thailand. Now the members of the ruling elite are up in arms over yet another classic chapter of their power struggle. General Sonthi has emerged at the forefront of the new power after the September 19 military coup that toppled the Thaksin regime. Ever since, the new power and the old power have been waging a war against one another. After the coup, members of the new power thought they would be better off if they played "soft-ball". They would not drive remnants of the old regime into a corner. The assets of the politicians associated with the old regime were not frozen. The diplomatic passport of the ousted prime minister was not revoked. Probes on corruption scandals alleged to have occurred under the old regime progressed at a snail's pace. The Thai Rak Thai Party came under the threat of dissolution for alleged election fraud. However, in recent weeks the Assets Examination Committee has been moving at a faster pace in taking on the Shinawatra family's stock transactions. General Saprang Kalayanamit, a member of the National Security Council, has also strengthened the investigations of corruption scandals at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which throws into the net dozens of politicians and officials of the old regime. Military allies of the old regime have also lost power after the coup. They are bitterly upset with their loss of power in this latest round. The police, who are mostly allies of the old regime, have been hanging on tightly to their power because they too are under the threat of being dismantled. You'd be kidding yourself again if you believed that the remnants of the old regime would do nothing to strike back. How many schools in the Northeast and the North have been torched so far? Who has tried to discredit General Sonthi regarding his alleged double marriage certificates? Who dropped hints to the press concerning Prime Minister Surayud's resort home, allegedly on encroached land in Nakhon Ratchasima? Now we've had eight bomb blasts in Bangkok on New Year's Eve. Only professionals could manage to undertake such a clandestine operation. In Thailand, only men in police and military uniforms have the capability to produce these kinds of bomb devices and set them off in different parts of Bangkok. The blasts were not intended to result in a massive loss of life or casualties. They were political bombs with an underlying message: "I know what you're up to, but I am not afraid of you." With these bombs, the old power and the new power are engaging in a very sophisticated power play. It could become a pretext for another coup or countercoup. If both sides do not handle the situation well, Thailand may turn into another Iraq. The new power is faced with the dilemma that it will be in power until October before letting democracy resume its reluctant role in Thailand again, while the ousted prime minister is keen to return to Thailand at any time to reclaim power. If the new power lets go of its power, the old power will certainly make a comeback under the guise of democracy. So we might expect to see the new power trying to hang on to power through a half-baked democracy. One way or another, the old power has to outlive the ousted prime minister otherwise it will become dead meat. At that point, street protests might erupt again against the new power to further complicate the political situation. The old power is waiting to make a comeback if its core members survive the ordeal. After one side prevails, only then may Thailand return to peace again. Yet, at what price? Thanong Khanthong The Nation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junglesoup Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 Lets hope not. I dont think it will become an Iraq. The prevalent theory seems to be that it wasnt the southern insurgents who planned the bombs... Although Democracy is a joke here. The peoplr dont really have a say in it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 I'm more interested in how much the 'common' person is going to take of this bullshit, sure we have our factions, but are 'normal' Thais going to stand back and do nothing? It could get very interesting in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 The king is the real binder of the country. As long as he is around I don't really see things unravelling too much. If someone of less respect were at the helm, I would say civil war is not out of the question to sort things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jitagawn Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 Hmmm. Velly interesting and possible. Like most things here its difficult to discern the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 << Who has tried to discredit General Sonthi regarding his alleged double marriage certificates? >> My understanding is that bigamy is not a crime in Thailand. And anyway Sonthi is a Muslim. He is allowed FOUR legal wives. << Now we've had eight bomb blasts in Bangkok on New Year's Eve. Only professionals could manage to undertake such a clandestine operation. In Thailand, only men in police and military uniforms have the capability to produce these kinds of bomb devices and set them off in different parts of Bangkok. >> Once again, pure BS. Anyone who has had even rudimentary military explosives training -- i.e. virtually every Army engineer -- has the knowledge to do it. You can also find the know how just by doing a search of the internet. I agree on the power struggle, but journalists shouldn't make grandious statements when they don't know what they are talking about. p.s. I'm not particularly worried. I've been here through I don't remember how many coups, counter coups and "popular uprisings". What's one more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limbo Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 Mac, I thought bigamy was illegal in Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 Most Thais don't register marriages, but a Thai colleague told me bigamy wasn't illegal anyway. Remember this is a man's world. A husband can divorce his wife for adultry, but not the other way around. (One of my colleagues years ago admitted to me that he had four wives - one in each town he had lived in!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nervous_Dog Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 I have heard also and confirmedd by the marriage place I got married at, that marriages aren;t registered or cross checked on any national database, so you could have a different wife in every town and no one would find out atomatically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Julian2 Posted January 7, 2007 Report Share Posted January 7, 2007 I thought about setting up house here, in Lao and the Philippines simultaneously. I had GFs in all of those countries at the time but I did the math and it didn't work out economically. Plus I'm not much good at lying, even to women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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