2.5 million residents of Sadr City, Iraq have been warned to evacuate.

[Bangkoktraveler]

A sense of foreboding surrounds what is in effect Iraq's second city as the death toll continues to mount.

 

The warnings are out. The 2.5 million residents of the densely packed slum that is Sadr City have been warned to evacuate. Stadiums in the vicinity and international aid agencies are preparing to receive a fresh batch of refugees. War has arrived.

 

In contrast to the surge success narrative, last month saw a significant upturn in the scale of killing in Baghdad. Some 400 "Sadrist" militiamen were reported to have died in often large-scale conventional offensives against US forces. The fighting, between the loosely affiliated "Sadrists" and the US military, has been ongoing since March 25. Last Tuesday, a Sadrist commander claimed that 8,000 families had been forced from their homes in Sadr City by a combination of the fighting and the continued disintegration in infrastructure typified by electricity cuts and burst sewers.

 

Yet more people are trapped, unable to flee. Indeed, the last six weeks have seen Sadr City subjected to indefinite curfew. US forces make regular nighttime incursions, in addition to over 20 miles of security blast walls that make up the partitioned city. Iraqi soldiers have refused to allow humanitarian aid into what is becoming a Gaza-esque siege.

 

Basil al-Azawi, head of the Iraqi Commission for Civil Society Enterprises, a coalition of more than 1,000 Iraqi NGOs, pleaded for "the [iraqi] government to allow local and international aid organisations to move during curfew time and get into conflict areas to do their job". On Wednesday, Claire Hajaj, a UNICEF spokeswoman based in Jordan, said up to 150,000 people - including 75,000 children - were isolated in sections of Sadr City "cordoned off by military forces," including snipers and attack helicopters. Other aid agencies have warned of impending severe malnutrition or even the outbreak of cholera in the besieged slum.

 

Questions remain, however, as to the realistic outcomes of this latest battle for Baghdad. The three previous rounds each illustrated how often military action creates more problems than it professes to solve. The 2003 invasion created the vacuum that saw Baghdad looted down to its wires and filled with militias. These militias turned on each other in 2005, leading to ethnic-sectarian cleansing and the partitioning of Baghdad. The 2007 "surge" sought to reduce the violence essentially by consolidating this partitioning with the construction of walls and the use of localised forces co-opted against a "greater" al-Qaida enemy.

 

Today we are witnessing Round IV - the attempt to rout those elements of the Mahdi Army who supposedly have no place in the future body-politic of Iraq. The fighting takes place against a backdrop of lower media coverage than ever (a Pew study showed that the percentage of news stories devoted to the war dropped from an average of 15% of all stories last July to just 3% in February of this year.

 

As to the possible outcome of this new fight for Baghdad, there are two plausible scenarios. One is that the wings of the Sadrists will be clipped and rogue elements destroyed, allowing Muqtada himself, forever the pragmatist, to claim more effective control over the Shia working class and take the place he feels he deserves within the political system.

 

The second scenario is bleaker. It suggests that infighting within the Iraqi Shia has crystallised into a true standoff between those in the government (SICI, Da'wa) and those out (Sadrists). The Sadrists' response to date has included upping rocket attacks on the Green Zone and even killing marines riding in the new $1 million MRAP. April saw 49 US casualties in Iraq - the highest total in seven months. If this scenario plays true then the battle will likely get bloodier and bloodier.

 

The impact of conventional military assault on an urban environment should come as no surprise to any observer of the last five years in Iraq. In the worst case scenario, Sadr City could become a new Fallujah, where over 70% of the city was destroyed and subsequently rebuilt - effectively as a working prison with biometric scans determining access. The towns of Ramadi, Basra and Tal Afar are just more examples of the new security-based urban landscapes indicative of the scars the new Iraq is carrying with it.

 

Whatever scenario takes place we await the next "Battle for Baghdad" with trepidation and knowledge that whoever wins the most vulnerable Iraqi women and children living in Sadr city will likely lose.

 

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[Faustian]

But the neo-cons claimed the surge was a success...?

[Flashermac]

It was ... for a while. This is the ebb and flow.

 

[Torneyboy]

Whatever scenario takes place we await the next "Battle for Baghdad" with trepidation and knowledge that whoever wins the most vulnerable Iraqi women and children living in Sadr city will likely lose.

 

So very sad for these people...

[rogueyam]

But the neo-cons claimed the surge was a success...?

 

It is a success. That is why the Mahdi Army is retreating.

[rogueyam]

...whoever wins the most vulnerable Iraqi women and children living in Sadr city will likely lose.

 

Their husbands and fathers who choose to oppose U.S. forces with arms will lose most.

 

So very sad for these people...

 

They need to learn to use their words.

[rogueyam]

Sadrist bloc buckles, agrees to let Iraqi Army in Sadr City

 

Bill Roggio

May 10, 2008

 

After over six weeks of heavy fighting in and around the Mahdi Army stronghold Sadr City, where Mahdi Army forces took lopsided casualties in the fighting, the government and the Sadrist political bloc has signed an agreement to end the fighting. The agreement will allow for the Iraqi military to operate freely inside Sadr City while the Mahdi Army must halt its fighting.

 

The negotiations, which took place over the course of the last several days, culminated in the signing of a 14-point agreement. Both Iraqi government spokesman Ali al Dabbagh and Sadrist spokesman Sheikh Salih al Ubaydi confirmed an agreement was reached.

 

 

Long War Journal

[Bangkoktraveler]

color:red]"In Sadr City, a Cease-Fire Is Put to the Test, and Fails "

 

A column of Iraqi armor set out on Sunday to test a new truce in the Sadr City area of Baghdad between the militias and the Iraqi government by venturing north on a major thoroughfare that borders the Shiite enclave.

 

But the Iraqi forces had barely started to move when they were struck by three roadside bombs, known as improvised explosive devices, or I.E.D.â??s, as the military calls them.

 

As Sadr City and Iraqi government negotiators struggled to complete the cease-fire agreement, the scene was a vivid demonstration that a durable accord in the densely populated neighborhood, where intense fighting has been going on for more than a month, had yet to be achieved.

 

â??They promised that there would not be any explosions, that people would show us where the I.E.D.â??s are,â? said a combat engineer with the Ninth Iraqi Army Division who identified himself as Colonel Alaa. â??In 10 meters three I.E.D.â??s exploded on us.â?Â

 

Three Iraqi soldiers were wounded by the blasts, including the Iraqi colonel, who strode through a rubble-strewn street with a bandage on his left leg.

 

Hopes for a peaceful end to the bitter fighting in Sadr City were raised on Saturday when government officials and followers of Moktada al-Sadr, the anti-American Shiite cleric who controls the militias, said a truce had been brokered.

 

A news conference with Iraqi government officials who were expected to announce the agreement was scheduled for Sunday afternoon but later canceled.

 

Under the terms of the agreement, Iraqi forces would have free access to Sadr City, and militia members would not be allowed to have heavy weapons like machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades or mortars. In return, militia members who refrained from fighting Iraqi and American forces would not be arrested.

 

Iraqi and American forces have already moved into the southern quadrant of Sadr City, and American troops have been working to complete a wall along Al Quds Street, which marks the northern edge of the sector, to try to turn that region into a safe zone. But the agreement was seen as a way for the Iraqi government to assert control over the Sadr City areas north of the wall without ordering Iraqi troops to fight their way in.

 

Putting the accord to the test, at least at this early stage, was another matter. In recent weeks, Iraqi and American commanders have said that much of the fighting has been carried out by Iranian-backed â??special groupsâ? that appear to have little interest in reconciling with the Iraqi government despite assertions from Iranian officials that they are encouraging a peaceful outcome.

 

There appeared to be other complications as well. Bassim Sharif, a leader of the Fadhila party, a rival of Mr. Sadrâ??s party, said he believed that the Sadrists were behind the cancellation of the announcement because some of them were â??not happy with some of the items of the agreement, probably the handing over of weapons and wanted men.â?Â

 

Ali Adeeb, a Parliament member from the Dawa Party of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, said the Sadrist members of Parliament appeared to be having trouble bringing their armed wing on board.

 

â??The Sadrists M.P.â??s have a problem persuading their armed people to listen to them,â? he said. â??However they have four days of calm, and they will use that time to convince them to stop fighting. We believe that some groups will keep fighting and not observe the cease-fire because they are worried about being arrested.â?Â

 

Throughout the dealings there has been no official public statement from Mr. Sadr about the agreement. Mr. Adeeb said some Sadrist politicians were trying to persuade the cleric to issue such a statement.

 

Haji Abu Mohammed, a Mahdi Army commander in Sadr City, said on Sunday that his men would not stop fighting until ordered to do so by the cleric personally. He said his Baghdad fighters feared a repeat of what happened in Basra last month when, he asserted, Sadrists stopped fighting but the government continued making arrests and raiding their strongholds.

 

â??We do not trust the government and the politicians,â? he said.

 

On the streets of Sadr City on Sunday, there were signs that the accord was not in place.

 

When Lt. Gen. Abud Qanbar, the commander of forces in the Baghdad area, and Maj. Gen. Mizher al-Azawi, who leads the 11th Iraqi Army Division, toured the southern section of Sadr City early Sunday morning, Iraqi soldiers reported that some of the mosques had been blaring messages assailing the accord and urging residents not to allow Iraqi troops in.

 

Along Al Quds Street there was no break in the fighting. An Iraqi solder was wounded by a sniper near one forward position. A rocket-propelled grenade was fired at a different Iraqi strongpoint that is jointly operated with the Americans. There were loud explosions as American â??route clearanceâ? teams found and detonated roadside bombs.

 

Important questions remained late Sunday about whether the truce would be patched up soon and which groups in Sadr City would honor it if it was. Another problem was how long the Maliki government would wait if a durable truce could not be achieved before sending the Iraqi troops north of Al Quds Street.

 

At least some residents were not waiting for an answer. On Sunday morning, streams of cars could be seen leaving Sadr City.

 

 

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