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New Orleans Residents Are Ordered to Flee Hurricane


Flashermac

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NEW ORLEANS â?? City officials ordered everyone to leave New Orleans beginning Sunday morning â?? the first mandatory evacuation since Hurricane Katrina flooded the city three years ago â?? as Hurricane Gustav grew into what the cityâ??s mayor called â??the storm of the centuryâ? on Saturday and moved toward the Louisiana coast.

 

Mayor C. Ray Nagin said Gustav was larger and more dangerous than Katrina, and pleaded with residents to get out or face enormous flooding and life-threatening winds.

 

â??This is the mother of all storms, and Iâ??m not sure weâ??ve seen anything like it,â? he said at an evening news briefing. â??This is the real deal, this is not a test. For everyone thinking they can ride this storm out, I have news for you: that will be one of the biggest mistakes you can make in your life.â?Â

 

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Here we go again ...

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CNN

31-08-2008

 

 

"NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Hurricane Gustav, weakened only slightly by its passage over Cuba's western tip, emerged over Gulf waters Sunday on a path toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

 

The passage over Cuba shaved just 15 mph off the top wind speeds reported by the National Hurricane Center before it made landfall on the island. Forecasters believe Gustav will quickly regain that power and more, likely growing to Category 5 status with winds of at least 156 mph later on Sunday.

 

The latest tracking map from the hurricane center predicts a U.S. landfall somewhere between Galveston, Texas, and the Mississippi-Alabama line -- with New Orleans, Louisiana, near the middle of the "cone of uncertainty.""

 

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I wonder what the chances are of this thing fizzling out and being a non-event?

 

The chances of this are unknowable but appear to be very low.

 

I am originally from South Louisiana. I always follow Gulf of Mexico hurricane news closely. When Gustav started to heat up I thought that it was likely there would be an over-reaction to its approach.

 

Given the political context (upcoming election, Republican National Convention this week), and given the Katrina experience (and in particular the successful effort to harm the Bush Administration and the G.O.P. generally through mis-reporting of that storm), I thought it likely that the Republican Governors of Mississippi and Louisiana would be absolutely certain that they didn't under-prepare for Gustav.

 

Hurricane prediction and monitoring is a highly developed science. Gustav looks very, very dangerous for the Gulf Coast right now. It is quite close to the worst-case track for New Orleans, and is closer to the worst-case scenario than it was twelve hours ago. That is, things are appearing to get worse, not better. Katrina was not nearly a worst-case storm for N.O. The levees were designed to withstand the storm surge Katrina produced (though they failed due to design and construction shortcomings). Gustav is presently on-track to produce a significantly higher storm surge than did Katrina, one that exceeds the design capacity of the levee system (even if the system performs up to its design specifications as it did not during Katrina).

 

New Orleans is staring down the barrel of a shotgun right now and landfall is just a day or two away. Anything can happen, of course, but what is most likely to happen is that Louisiana gets its ass kicked hard! It is a terrible situation!

 

Weather Nerd

 

 

 

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