1997 again, how will Thai people react

[Tiger Moth]

I just read this topic on this forum:http://www.thai360.com/fbb/showtopic.php?tid/529930/

 

And, I have been wondering, how will Thai people react to severely depressed economic conditions.

 

I don't speak Thai well enough to get into this type of discussion with a Thai person, but, although, I am willing to admit I don't have any facts to back this up, it seems to me that the average Thai person hasn't a clue that there is a global financial bust going on and that it is going to have a severe impact on their lives.

 

I don't mean to be condescending but, someone made a post which said something to the effect that, Thailand being mostly agrarian, most people would not be greatly impacted.

 

Well, I spent some time in my g/f's village. Entirely agrarian. And, believe me, they have already been impacted and as much as they hurt economically under normal circumstances, things are even more difficult and will get worse.

 

And, how about the BKK urban professionals with their aspirations for a new Benz, how are they going to react when they are out of a job and have had their dreams crushed.

 

Some of the board members were here during the aftermath of 1997, how do the smiling, Buddhist, it's all a matter of Kharma, react when the shit hits the fan?

 

I am really curious. Do they just keep on smiling an carry on? What is the reaction?

 

Thanks for any insight

[Central Scrutinizer]

I just read this topic on this forum:http://www.thai360.com/fbb/showtopic.php?tid/529930/

 

And, I have been wondering, how will Thai people react to severely depressed economic conditions.

 

I don't speak Thai well enough to get into this type of discussion with a Thai person, but, although, I am willing to admit I don't have any facts to back this up, it seems to me that the average Thai person hasn't a clue that there is a global financial bust going on and that it is going to have a severe impact on their lives.

 

I don't mean to be condescending but, someone made a post which said something to the effect that, Thailand being mostly agrarian, most people would not be greatly impacted.

 

Well, I spent some time in my g/f's village. Entirely agrarian. And, believe me, they have already been impacted and as much as they hurt economically under normal circumstances, things are even more difficult and will get worse.

 

And, how about the BKK urban professionals with their aspirations for a new Benz, how are they going to react when they are out of a job and have had their dreams crushed.

 

Some of the board members were here during the aftermath of 1997, how do the smiling, Buddhist, it's all a matter of Kharma, react when the shit hits the fan?

 

I am really curious. Do they just keep on smiling an carry on? What is the reaction?

 

Thanks for any insight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The comment that the poorer agrarian part of Thai society won't be hit too badly is right in a sense, at least for the poorest of that part. They don't have much to begin with, they live a subsistence lifestyle whereby they get most of their foods and things from the very countryside they live in. Food, well, they eat bugs, frogs, scorpions, fish, backyard chickens and eggs, rice is grown if they have land or provided for their labor by family or friends they work for each growing season when help is needed, now, they pick all sorts of greens from the ground and the trees on their property, along the roadside, from other people's property that allow them to, etc. Their water is rainwater, with some places having village supplied community drinking water supplied for free. Their electricity at the moment, if kept under a certain amount of kilowatts used, is free from the government. Same for piped in water. A certain amount is free. Use more and you have to pay. Many over 60, if signed up, have a monthly dole for the elderly of 500 baht. There is still a 30 baht type of healthcare scheme in use.

 

These are the ones that, while they may be affected in some ways, especially cash flow (what little they get), are basically pretty self-sufficient to a greater degree than most and any financial crisis they will easily survive. The frogs, fish, bugs, greens, and rice, rats, eggs and chickens will still be there for them. Same as it ever was.

 

It's the middle class that will be hit hardest. I've said this before, but many middle class Thais are way overextended and up to their eyes in credit debt. Home loans, car, motorcycle and truck loans, personal loans for fancy goods and such like wide screen TVs, computers, mobile phones, cable, internet, laptops, etc. Many have wanted the best and the newest everything they could buy on credit. I've seen this over the past years since '97's financial crisis. Credit has been fairly easy to get. That will bite many in the ass when the financial tsunami hits.

 

Some of this effect on the middle class will affect their relatives who depend on their largess, the elderly they care for and those family members back in the villages and rural areas that many support.

 

I have no idea what Thai bankruptcy laws are like, but I can foresee loads of reposessions of autos, trucks and motocykes. It has already started somewhat.

 

The elite will cover their asses like they always do here. They'll blame it all on the west and the farangs, as they always do. And they'll screw over whoever they have to to keep what they have and survive the crisis.

 

What will be interesting to see is how far the property markets and prices will fall, if at all. As usual I think the Thais will just continue to raise prices, like they always do.

 

As for how they'll react? I'd think many will be the same as they always are. They'll keep smiling and doing what they need to do to survive or get ahead. The scammers will keep scamming and lying, the decent folks will tighten their belt buckles and work their asses off, the poor will remain poor and the rich will still be rich in comparison.

 

Personally I feel an agrarian society, which much of Thailand is, can better ride out something like this, especially due to their already ingrained village mentality and the fact they are used to sharing and taking care of each other rather then depending on the government and others to do so. Throw in the ubiquitous village Wats and the Buddhist religion and I think most will weather the financial storm better than many more modern industrial nations.

 

Oh, and there will be more young women and men off to the big cities looking for work, any work, and working in the bars and entertainment industry and periphery of the tourist industry. How that influx of extra people will affect prices remains to be seen, but freelancers will come down in price due to the added competition I'd think. The bars though, and bargirls, I'd bet will raise prices, as they always seem to do. Whether they get what they ask is another matter.

 

And crime will definitely rise in the areas it has always been in to begin with. It's endemic in certain areas and the frequency will increase. But that will happen everywhere I believe to varying degrees.

 

JMHO and thoughts.

[CTO]

Agree with Cent above - my work is in the rural areas - right now rain playing havoc with the rice harvest - which is by hand - and more than half the rice isn't sold but kept for food.

 

Part of me envy's the simple life style - however while they are in a much better position to weather a financial storm because simply they are not part of the financial world - the flip side is in a boom they don't move forwards either.

 

The great benefit of a self sustaining economy

[Central Scrutinizer]

Just spent the past couple three weeks in the village. They truly do amaze me at times how self sufficient they are. They cook on the barbie using charcoal most times. Saves on the cooking gas it does, which is getting expensive. And, they make the charcoal themselves using trees off the farm and house properties. Mama walks around her property picking stuff for the coming dinner. A mango here, a papaya there, some green things used in one dish off a tree by the back door, some stuff growing on a vine up a dead tree, one sister brings a couple fish her husband took from their little fish pond, another brings some small fish her hubby netted from the lake that will be added to another special dish, we add some BigC pork or chicken to the feast, or chicken wings/legs etc. Every morning and every evening the clan meets at our place and cooks up a feast. Much of the foods and garnishes are right from the land and farm house properties. Lunch is more haphazard and free form.

 

But I have to say I enjoy the family gathering around. There is much joking and laughter and fun. The kids are a hoot as well. I still enjoy my time in the village house. It's sort of a vacation really for me and my wife. I have a ping pong table on the front veranda and we play. Some games a friend left are played on the table out front. The women enjoy a couple hours of card playing most afternoons once their work is done. If there was internet connection up there I'd likely spend more time up there. Plus the mobile connection for DTAC pretty much sucks the wet one unless I go next door and stand behind sis Mun's house. Only place I can get a decent connection for some reason.

 

But I know what you mean. They are self sufficient for much of their needs, and seem happy as hell most days. I did some fishing while up there and didn't catch squat.

 

Cent

[gobbledonk]

I vividly recall thinking much the zame in june/july, watching poorer thai people 'get by' in bkk. they will be ok,imo, but i agree that bmw driving folk are in for a reality check, and not only in thailand.

[Tiger Moth]

In general I agree with you but, I think the picture you present is slightly overstated. (this is not an attempt at an argument, just interesting discussion)

 

Anyway, I am presently living in Khon Kaen and my g/f lives not too far from you. So, here are some of my observations and thoughts.

 

Khon Kaen - seems to me to be very middle to upper middle class. In the last year, many, many new housing developments and condo buildings under construction. Yet, ironically, very near

"the only 5 star hotel in Issan - Sofitel - is the shell of a building still standing from 1997. Anyway, if you drive around KK today, you will see so many advertisement billboards for new homes, you would think the economy was booming.

 

This is the middle class that you see as being hard hit and I agree. I can see more empty shell buildings like the one left over from 97. And, I expect you are correct that many have overextended their credit.

 

So, how do these people react when their new home is no longer a possibility, when their Toyota truck is repossessed, when their fancy motocy goes away?

 

Regarding the agrarian village people, I agree they will survive. I have spent some time in my g/f village and early in the morning the ladies go into the woods and gather fresh mushrooms, fruit is there for picking off the trees... but, it is still a tough life. I actually planted rice one day - for a couple of hours - how these people do this for 10-12 hours a day is beyond me - it is really, really hard work!! And, today, they can scarcely afford the seeds (or whatever they are actually called) and the gasoline to make the meager profits on the rice they grow (read that some have gone back to kwaai instead of machines that use gasoline). So, yes, they will survive but...

 

Oh, and there will be more young women and men off to the big cities looking for work, any work, and working in the bars and entertainment industry and periphery of the tourist industry. How that influx of extra people will affect prices remains to be seen, but freelancers will come down in price due to the added competition I'd think. The bars though, and bargirls, I'd bet will raise prices, as they always seem to do. Whether they get what they ask is another matter.

 

And, more will be driven to work in factories for 14 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7,000 baht a month - as my g/f aunt had to do for a number of years.

 

It isn't going to be pretty and your overall conclusions reasonable - I guess the Thai people will just suffer through it.

[Central Scrutinizer]

TM,

 

I'll get back to you tomorrow on this discussion. Off to the German joint to eat and have a couple beers.

 

Cent

[CTO]

<<

But I know what you mean. They are self sufficient for much of their needs, and seem happy as hell most days. I did some fishing while up there and didn't catch squat.>>

 

My real point is not whether they suffer today - but if they can prosper in times that are good - for example in our area - out of over 50 farms only 2 have papers that they can use as collateral - the rest are "lucky" to have papers that allow them to "own" - pass on the land if they die - bt they can't sell.

 

You can't sell - you can't borrow against it.

 

This is the real economic crime - not what happens in wealthy markets going down - but are these people just as disenfranchised from the economic benefits during a boom.

[shygye]

When will the banks foreclose on the 1997 abandoned buildings?

[cheekyboy]

they dont have a clue ,they think money grows on trees and such a decline just isnt possible .

even though they know friends who are losing jobs all over the place .The unemployments figures are horsesh1t even when times are great ,so wont reflect any downfall .in fact all government statistics are horsesh1t ..