Watershed moment for democracy and rule of law

[Lord Toad]

PAD cannot lose if the police refuse to go in.

 

If the police go in with enough men and equipment to win expect 500 - 1,000 casualties including some fatalities. There are 10,000 PAD at the airport an assault would need at least 20,000 police to be guaranteed success. In addition what are the chances of collateral damage to the airport? Pretty high I am sure: so a full assault is likely to also cause immense damage to the airport. Somcahi would be crucified if the above happened.

 

In conclusion Somchai has either got to resign and call an election, or the Military will have take over to save the country.

 

Logically (sorry for using a non Thai word) Somchai would resign and call an election because that way he can get back into power. If the military take over and election might be delayed for months whilst issues are settled (if they can be).

 

The only other potential scenario that makes sense is that the pro government red shirt lot attack PAD. There is chaos and the military have to move in and take over. Which is why the red short guys are keeping well out of the way.

[ranma500]

Logically (sorry for using a non Thai word) Somchai would resign and call an election because that way he can get back into power.

 

I may be mistaken, but I believe that any day now, the PPP is likely to be disbanded by a ruling from the Supreme Court that it engaged in vote-buying in the last election.

 

That would not normally pose a problem for the PPP politicians. They have already got a new party registered, and the politicians would simply swap to the new party, and therefore would be eligible to stand for re-election.

 

However, there is a rule that election candidates must be members of a party for a minimum of ninety days before an election.

 

So... if the government resigned and called an election and then the party was disbanded, none of the PPP MPs could stand for re-election.

 

ranma

[Pom Michael]

I don't know if that 90 day rule is still in effect - that was from the last constitution.

[Lord Toad]

That is what Jonathan Head on BBC has referred to. So you could be right.

 

But I think we may well find out about that because I am sure an election has got to happen.

[colorwolf]

Easily. And then some, I'd say.

 

Mentors: Thanks for pointing out yet another misguided and sadly misinformed NGO. These organizations should really talk to people versus relying on newspaper reports.

 

Cheers,

SD

and when will you start listening to people?

if you would, you might learn that, among those people, the pad has lost support hand over fist. which is also why you won't find a fair analysis such as the one above concluding in favour of the pad.

as for shrilly calling the ahrc "yet another misguided and sadly misinformed NGO", i can only assume that you would rail in the same shrill manner against amnesty international or human rights watch...

 

[Gadfly]

I may be mistaken, but I believe that any day now, the PPP is likely to be disbanded by a ruling from the Supreme Court that it engaged in vote-buying in the last election.

 

The political party doesn't really matter. If there is an elected government, PAD won't like the results. Why else would PAD advocate for doing away with elected governments?

 

Thaksin was bad. He was corrupt. But these guys are far worse. It's not only replacing an elected government with a militairy one - something PAD advocates - but the history and motive of PAD's leaders.

 

They aren't trying to do anything for Thailand. This is a power grab by an annoited few who know they stand no chance of gaining power through election.

 

Hence, they claim the rural poor of Thailand are too stupid to be entrusted with choosing the next government. They and their backers will make the decision for the Thais. That is basically what PAD is saying.

[CTO]

Reminds me a LOT of hitler during the 30's, he'd make demands - governments would dilly dally, come back and agree, then he'd say "You took too long, now I want THIS" raising the stakes higher and higher.

 

Chamlong and Sondhi will do the same.

 

 

[Torneyboy]

I may be mistaken, but I believe that any day now, the PPP is likely to be disbanded by a ruling from the Supreme Court that it engaged in vote-buying in the last election.

 

The political party doesn't really matter. If there is an elected government, PAD won't like the results. Why else would PAD advocate for doing away with elected governments?

 

Thaksin was bad. He was corrupt. But these guys are far worse. It's not only replacing an elected government with a militairy one - something PAD advocates - but the history and motive of PAD's leaders.

 

They aren't trying to do anything for Thailand. This is a power grab by an annoited few who know they stand no chance of gaining power through election.

 

Hence, they claim the rural poor of Thailand are too stupid to be entrusted with choosing the next government. They and their backers will make the decision for the Thais. That is basically what PAD is saying.

 

 

Very good point of view..

[WorldFun]

anyway 2.dec is the day rumoured to be when PPP & possible Chat Thai will be resolved by the courts. & further on that rumour PAD may leave the airports if thats the outcome of the verdicts

[Mentors]

anyway 2.dec is the day rumoured to be when PPP & possible Chat Thai will be resolved by the courts. & further on that rumour PAD may leave the airports if thats the outcome of the verdicts

 

i don't know who in the meantime should listen to the Dec. 2.

Thailand is in Anarchy and Terrorists occupy the Airports and make a damage for Thailand and their people. And all people in leader positions on all sides act irresponsible.