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I've read a lot of pieces on the "bubble" in the Chinese property market and economy and how the entire country could go 'pop' at any second.

 

Still waiting.

 

If it happens, the effects are going to be interesting!

 

 

We I had more contact the economics scene in regard to Asia around 12-13 years ago there where two camps concerning the future of Asia:

a) those who predicted that China will crash because of economical, social and/or ecological catastrophes

B) those who took in account that China has to deal with major problems looming ahead, but who thought that China will make it nevertheless.

 

I think camp a) got much weaker in the recent years...

 

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I've read a lot of pieces on the "bubble" in the Chinese property market and economy and how the entire country could go 'pop' at any second.

 

Still waiting.

 

If it happens' date=' the effects are going to be interesting!

 

[/quote']

 

We I had more contact the economics scene in regard to Asia around 12-13 years ago there where two camps concerning the future of Asia:

a) those who predicted that China will crash because of economical, social and/or ecological catastrophes

B) those who took in account that China has to deal with major problems looming ahead, but who thought that China will make it nevertheless.

 

I think camp a) got much weaker in the recent years...

 

Actually there was third opinion which was China does have to deal with major problems and will undoubtedly make it, but there is little likelihood of them ever dominating the world in the way the US and the EU do today anytime in the next 100 years or so. Even though China has made a spectacular leap in economic growth, that has been solely fueled by exports of items manufactured with cheap labor. That doesn’t make you a dominate economic player, that makes you a factory dependent on foreign customers.

 

It is easy to set up a bunch of factories and hire millions of people at a couple of dollars a day to work for you. The US and Europe did that over a hundred years ago. The hard part is to make the transition to a consumer oriented economy that where most or least a significant part of what you produce is purchased by your own workers. That took several generations to happen in the West. China is moving that way, but they have long way to go and there are serious cultural and social issues that have to be resolved before it will fully take hold like in the West. I would say the China is at the stage that the US was during the 1890’s at best. There is still a long way to go.

 

The day when you can drive through a manufacturing city in China and all the workers are living in 3 or 4 bedroom suburban homes with motor homes and fishing boats sitting in the driveway, then China will have achieved what the US has.

TH

 

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The day when you can drive through a manufacturing city in China and all the workers are living in 3 or 4 bedroom suburban homes with motor homes and fishing boats sitting in the driveway, then China will have achieved what the US has.

TH

 

Arent there millions of people in the US who aspire to that very same '3 or 4 bedroom home' in 2011 ? Possibly the many of the same people who aspire to be classed as 'workers' in a difficult economy.

 

I've never been to the US, and I'm not denying that the American middle class did very well for many years in the dormitory suburbs you describe, but I believe you still underestimate the Chinese ability to move forward. When I worked at a University in QLD, over 50% of the visiting academics were from China and they didnt waste time on crap like politics : while others were bitching about the lack of research dollars they were busy winning grants. One of the pioneers of solar energy in Oz was forced to go back to China because he couldnt get funding here - he is now a billionaire.

 

I'm not denying that their base is still the factory and their biggest asset is still a cheap workforce, but I believe they will continue to stun the West with the speed which they can make transitions which took decades (centuries) here in a fraction of the time. I just hope they can see how unsustainable that middle-class lifestyle really is for planet Earth.

 

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The Chinese have proven that they are in the game for the long haul.

When I first went to China in the late 70's, they had about nothing! Roads terrible, air transport, spotty, at best. Had to take the train (one week) from Mongolia to Shanghai, as it was faster then waiting for the next air flight! and the train wasn't much!! I could speak about zero Chinese and had to wander about to find the "dining car" to get a bowl of rice and a beer from some kind military folks that were on the train!!!

 

The people have always been great, unbelievably great, like in I am on a decent per diem ($150 USD/day or something like that) but the local Chinese insisted that they would always pay for lunch (3 RMb) and they were making like $50 USD/month.

 

Several years later, the roads improved, then they had toll roads, better trains and lanes, steady and progressive improvements.

All the time the Chinese had the basics; food, shelter and clothing.

 

For dealing with 1+ billion people, hats off to China, well done! (minus a few glitches, like tanks crushing people but remember they are dealing with a HUGE number of people). IMO.

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