Will Pheu Thai sink or swim with Jatuporn?

[Coss]

 

Omitting the now jailed red-shirt leader from the party list could alienate a huge section of voters in upcoming election

 

The next five days will be long for Jatuporn Prompan. To Thaksin Shinawatra and anyone else who has to decide the election future of the red-shirt leader and hero, time will fly. Long dubbed a loose cannon of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, Jatuporn was put behind bars yesterday after the Criminal Court revoked his bail, and that means a potentially explosive dilemma for everyone concerned.

 

Thaksin has been thinking for a long time about whether he should keep red-shirt protesters as his mass support while his Pheu Thai Party campaigns in the upcoming election. He earlier tried to distance the party from the red shirts as he feared the movement might affect votes.

 

Now Jatuporn has been put in jail, Thaksin is at a crossroads.

 

If Jatuporn, who is still eligible to contest in the election despite being in prison, remains a candidate, it means Thaksin decided to keep the red shirts with his party.

 

As a red-shirt hero, Jatuporn gets huge support from red shirts. They could turn furious if Jatuporn is not among the 125 Pheu Thai party-list candidates.

 

The absence of Jatuporn from the list would affect the party's election results. It would be like butchering the donkey after it finished its job on the mill. Jatuporn has played a major role during the red-shirt demonstrations. Red shirts could reject Thaksin and Pheu Thai and choose to vote "No".

 

Most red shirts were outraged when they learned that Jatuporn and Nisit Sinthuprai had had their bail revoked due to a speech on April 10 that was deemed by the authorities as defamatory to the monarchy.

 

Their responses were mixed, however, on what repercussions it would have on the red-shirt movement and the Pheu Thai Party. Some believed it would make red shirts even more determined to fight against what they perceive as injustice, while others see the detention as weakening the movement and increasing fear of making certain political speeches.

 

"Every single pain will be transformed into power," declared red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua.

 

Another leader, Korkaew Pikulthong, thought it could rally more people to vote for Pheu Thai and make the red shirts more resolved.

 

"There will be more people coming out on May 19," said Korkaew, referring to the first anniversary of the end of the bloody crackdown in Bangkok. "And more may vote for the Pheu Thai Party."

 

Although the red shirts will try to turn the pain into power, the revocation of bail for their hero could strengthen disloyalty accusations against the red shirts and Pheu Thai. Red shirts would be forced to be more cautious in their next rallies because if any violence takes place the election might never happen. That could be a negative for the Pheu Thai Party as well. If the election isn't held, how they can bring Thaksin home?

 

Moreover, voters who are so far undecided could turn against Pheu Thai following the accusations.

 

The Pheu Thai Party is expected to announce its party-list candidates on Monday. The timing is interesting. The first day of party-list registration will be on May 19, the same day the red shirts will hold a one-year commemoration of the Bangkok crackdown. On the day, the reds might be happy if Jatuporn was on the party list - or sad if he was dumped from the party.

 

With long government holidays, Jatuporn will have to stay in jail for five days (May 13-17) before possibly getting bail again. His lawyer submitted another bail request yesterday, but it was rejected by the court. Jatuporn can request bail again, but his freedom could return anyway when the first parliamentary session starts on August 2, the date expected by the Election Commission.

 

At the end of the day, Thaksin would never leave Jatuporn behind bars alone, but would rather embrace him as one of the main MP candidates under the Pheu Thai banner in the upcoming election.

 

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