thai stocks up, any tips?

[pattaya127]

on the plane coming in, i read this article in the Asian Wall Street jurnal about thai stockes being a good investment for 2003,IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING! the further reads i made here seem to indicate it's looking rosy indeed. The AWSJ gave with the comments some web links for brokering houses such as thaistocks.com (specialized in small Co, operated by a frenchman), and a flurry of companies deemed to be interesting to follow. How about some more knowledgeable advice from our members in the know. Even a "conventionnal wisdom" post on the SET (sec exc of T.) would be welcome. Thanks

[gummigut]

Just a note.

 

Not that I want to stifle this conversation, but if someone is really going to post recommendations, I would appreciate that it is thorough or indications of direction where one can acquire information.

 

If one is really going to invest in the Thai stock market, they realy need to do their own due diligence. Analyst reports on Thai stocks are notoriously bad. Just take a look at consensus analyst estimates for things like EPS growth. The range can easily vary significantly. For example, a 10 baht stock may have target of 12 by one house and 14.5 by another.

 

Information here is the toughest thing to acquire. Reading between the lines of the news you can get is very hard to do unless you follow the business sector every day. Unfortunately this is one of the best ways to get information. Look at Siam Paragon. They recently said they are oversubscribed in terms of people seeking leases. So they are going to increase their capital investment in the project by 50% and they are going to increase the rentable area by 17%. The article made the project sound glowing: high demand and increasing supply. But take a look at the numbers. Increasing investment by 50% for a 17% increase in rentable area. Somebody screwed up somewhere.

 

Information you do get is spotty and contradictory. The residential real estate market is pretty hot at the moment. There have been articles about this in the paper for the past few weeks. In addition, there are articles about how hard it is going to be for the economy to keep it's current streak next year.

 

Thailand has an increasing budget deficit, although it's not going to be as great as expected. Overall debt is something like 56% of GDP. The new medical care and education policies is going to break the bank eventually if not overhauled. The budget deficit is going to increase signficantly with just these two line items yet the gov't is looking to pay down the Word Bank (or is it IMF) debt early. How is this all happening?

 

Anyways, just want to say if anyone is going to post information, please make sure it's accurate as I'll have a tendency to censor than not because the thai market already moves on whispers and the whims of the market players.

 

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[Guest]

I hear Pattaya beer bar stocks are on the rise. ::

[iuytrede]

If you don't know much about Thai stocks I would recommend you mutual funds - if you believe in the Thai stock market.

Fidelity has a Thailand Fund with a reasonable track record. JF (Jardine Fleming) has a Thailand fund which looks better to me but is not easily available outside Asia.

My ex used to recommend Major Cineplex stocks, she likes movies . Unfortunately I didn't buy them.

[gummigut]

Biggest fund I know is Thai Fund Inc. NYSE TTF. Weighted kinda like the SET top 50 (industry wise) or whatever if I remember correctly.

 

Plenty enough info out there on TTF.

 

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[pattaya127]

Thanks, guys, i hope more keep coming,especially what is the way to get your money in, online or contacting a brokerage firm directly. can it be done thru a bank officer in your bank? That soprt of rookie question, I won't bet more than i can lose, and i may very well not, but I do have access to a few people in the know, and if I can get a hold of them and gather more info fromother friends, I may spend a little time on it.