Has the Tsunami put Thailand on the tourist map?

[Flashermac]

Thailand: Tsunami's Impact and the Value of Good Press

 

Summary

 

The tsunami that devastated Indonesia and Sri Lanka hit some of Thailand's most important tourist sites. Although tourism is a significant part of the Thai economy, the impact of the tsunami will not be severe and the tourist industry will recover quickly. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra did not attend the Jan. 6 tsunami summit in Jakarta, but his close involvement in his country's recovery efforts will all but secure his re-election Feb. 6.

 

Analysis

 

Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand suffered the brunt of the damage from the massive tsunami that swept through the Indian Ocean on Dec. 26.

 

Although the Thai tourist industry was hit hard, it will recover quickly and without having a major impact on the country's economy. The disaster actually will benefit Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and help ensure his victory in the general elections scheduled for Feb. 6.

 

As of Jan. 6, the death toll in Thailand from the tsunami stood at 5,288, including more than 2,200 foreign tourists. In comparison, the tsunami killed more than 94,200 people in Indonesia and more than 30,000 in Sri Lanka.

 

Structural damage in Thailand also was relatively light. Resorts in the six most affected provinces -- all on the Malay Peninsula -- were damaged to varying degrees. In Khao Lak, for example, most of the island's 8,000 hotel rooms and bungalows were destroyed, while in Phuket only eight of 44 hotels sustained enough damage to be closed (most temporarily).

 

Tourism makes up 6 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product. The main tourist season in Thailand runs from November to March, corresponding with winter in Europe and North America. During this period, the affected provinces usually generate 13 percent of Thailand's tourist revenue. The worst-case scenario is that Thailand's tourist industry will lose 3.2 million arrivals or approximately one-fourth of the expected total over the next year. According to JP Morgan, the total impact to the Thai economy through lost tourism and fisheries revenue in the affected areas will be only 0.4 percent of the gross domestic product for 2005.

 

The Thai government is confident -- and industry experts agree -- the worst-case scenario is unlikely and the tourist season beginning in December 2005 will not be affected by the tsunami disaster of 2004. Aiding in this recovery will be the fact that, compared to its neighbors, Thailand has one of the best-developed infrastructures in the region and certainly has better facilities in place -- good roads, airports and rail links -- than many of its neighbors to rapidly and effectively deal with the disaster.

 

Thaksin is trying to turn the disaster into political capital, though he has lost the chance to play a strong leadership role in the region. Shortly after the tsunami, Singapore proposed a Jan. 6 regional summit to coordinate relief efforts. Thaksin lobbied for the summit to be held in Bangkok, but Jakarta was chosen instead. Compared to Thailand, Indonesia suffered nearly 20 times more deaths from the tsunami, and summit participants likely believed Jakarta would serve as a more symbolic venue. The world watched as Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono hosted the summit and demonstrated high-profile regional leadership. Meanwhile, Thaksin elected to stay at home, sending Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai in his stead and generating as much good press as possible by touring the affected areas and demonstrating his concern and commitment to the recovery effort.

 

Thailand's general elections are scheduled for Feb. 6, and Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party is expected to hold on to its parliamentary majority and stay in power, but demonstrating a decisive and effective response to the tsunami will all but clinch his victory.

 

© 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

 

http://www.stratfor.com

[voodoo31]

I can't agree that the tsunami would have a positive effect on tourism. I think Thailand is already well on the toursit map especially in Europe and Asia. But I have always noted that USA arrivals are rather low based on its population and economic strength. I believe more tourists come from England Germany than from USA even though populations are much smaller. Travel time is definitely longer from USA and get the feeling that Americans in general don't travel overseas as much as your average European or Japanese.

 

So I do believe there is a lot more potential for tourism from the USA but don't believe the images of disaster from the tsunami will help.

[Guest lazyphil]

In the summer you'd be amazed how many yank tourist fit into Cambridge, sometimes feels like that they're all here along with half a million kamakaze Japs who cant ride a pushbike in a straightline

[chelseafan]

Flashermac said:

<< 70% of Americans never leave the US.... >

 

 

Do you realise how many people you are talking about? You'd be hard pressed to fit 70% of the US population into the UK or most European countries, if they all did decide to visit at once!

 

 

US Citizens owning Passports

 

Depending on what you believe, (could be as low as 10% own passports), this would be around 30million people. They stated that a figure of 20% is nearer the mark, so 60million is a good guide, however, I suspect most of these would be heading for Mexico or Europe. In relation to the size of the country, Thailand is not one of the popular destinations for Yanks compared to Brits.

And judging by how many Americans stayed away from Britain during the foot and mouth crisis a few years ago, (mistakenly thinking that they could catch the disease), the Tsunami will do nothing to encourage them to travel to Indonesia, Thailand etc.

Just my opinion...

[CondomKing]

Flashermac said:

<< Who doesn't know about Thailand already? >>

 

 

You'd be surprised how many westerners think I live in TAIWAN! And when a friend told his mother he was going to Thailand, she asked "Where is that?" He said Siam. Then she got all excited and started singing "Getting to know you ...".

 

Ok, so I get the same thing from all the people I know who don't even know how to apply for a passport. So how does that help tourism, now that, maybe, they can distinguish between Thailand and Taiwan. I still don't think the tsumani will bring one extra tourist here, as a matter of fact, Thailand will now have to rebuild it's most popular tourist area as well as make every attempt to recoup it's lost revenue and reboot it's level of tourism to what it was before the disaster. To say that the tsumani will help tourism is insane.

[shygye]

US citizens DO NOT need a passport to travel to Mexico, Canada, and various Carribean countries.

 

Also most Americans only get 2 weeks of holiday vs Europeans 6 weeks. So closer destinations will be more popular.

[chelseafan]

shygye said:

US citizens DO NOT need a passport to travel to Mexico, Canada, and various Carribean countries.

 

Also most Americans only get 2 weeks of holiday vs Europeans 6 weeks. So closer destinations will be more popular.

 

I stand corrected about Mexico.....

As for the holiday, tell me about it, I work for an American company and they only give me 4 weeks....

[BelgianBoy]

shygye said:

Also most Americans only get 2 weeks of holiday vs Europeans 6 weeks. So closer destinations will be more popular.

 

WOW I have 6 weeks ??? Thanks for that, but not correct........ that is including public holidays.

In Belgium it is basically 20 days holidays and 11 days public holidays.

But we distress again.....

 

BB

[chelseafan]

BelgianBoy said:

shygye said:

Also most Americans only get 2 weeks of holiday vs Europeans 6 weeks. So closer destinations will be more popular.

 

WOW I have 6 weeks ??? Thanks for that, but not correct........ that is including public holidays.

In Belgiun it is basically 20 days holidays and 11 days public holidays.

But we distress again.....

 

BB

 

Public holidays amount to 7 days in the UK...I'm moving to Belgium !!!!

[Guest]

I don't know how one defines the point when something goes from simply "touristed" to "over-touristed" or if a place is or becomes "under-touristed". I'm sure there is a relationship between the number of tourists coming into a country and the countries ability to manage those tourists.

In any case, IME and IMO Thailand is getting near over-touristed.

This of course can only be my impression, but I say this because over 15 years of going to Thailand, I think Thais seem less "surprised" when meeting foreigners, as compared to before, even 4 years before.

I mention this because there seemed to be a genuine curiosity about foreigners before.

In many cases, Thais (especially those who work with tourists)

seem increasingly "fatigued" and sometimes even impatient with foreigners.

Also in the more out of the way places in Isaan it is no surprise to them to meet farangs and even seem a little bored by it. This is partly due to the borders with Laos and Cambodia being open which in the past was not.

For example, I went to the border of Chong Mek at the Lao/Ubon border, expecting to be the only foreigner there!

To my surprise was a busload of European tourists and other assorted travellers there buying gifts and what not! Not to mention others (mostly backpackers crossing in and out of the border).

Another indicator to me is that prices for hotels and restaurants are going up where they had not changed for years at a time in the past.

Granted it is not expensive by western standards but specifically a decent room in Ubon or Udon 2 years ago was 350-400 baht more or less the same as it was 5 years before that. Now this year the prices for the same hotels are nearly doubled.

The thing is that the rooms are exactly the same as before and no added value to justify the increase other then they know farangs will pay. Also salaries for Thai workers have not gone up to match this price increase.

In restaurants it is getting more and more expected that Thais should get a "tip", something which was unheard of before.

Having said all this, I do agree Americans will not be traveling as much to Thailand as Europeans or other Asians and Aussies

because the economy is not as good in the USA as in the past and having only 2 weeks holiday makes Thailand too far to travel to. Often it is not easy to get 2 weeks back to back either.

I also do not think Cambodia or Laos or Vietnam are cheaper then Thailand, but Thailand is a hub in the region for travel to those other countries and so more tourists will come to Thailand on their way to other places.

I guess the point of this is that, although maybe Thailand is able to manage the tourists ok, I feel it is slowly losing it's charm as it becomes more geared to being focused on the business of tourism.