BuffHello Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 W.H.O. Warning The World That Deadly Flu Pandemic is 'Imminent' By D.L. McCracken Sep 30, 2005, 13:03 Based on historical flu patterns, experts agree that another influenza pandemic is inevitable and possibly imminent.The United Nations on Thursday warned that should the avian flu become pandemic it is predicted that between 5 million and 150 million people worldwide would die. The numbers will be directly affected by how well any particular country has prepared itself in advance. Since 2003 Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia infecting humans who have come in close contact with the diseased birds. Since that time, more than 60 people have died in Asia as a result of diseased bird contact. At this writing the strain has not efficiently jumped directly from the bird population to humans but experts agree that it's only a matter of time before human-to-human transmission occurs. According to a recent report by the World Health Organization (WHO) risk of an avian flu pandemic is "great". The 20th century has witnessed three flu pandemics, the Spanish flu of 1918-19, the Asian flu of 1957-58 and the Hong-Kong flu of 1968-69 which resulted in tens of millions of deaths worldwide. Experts have identified specific criteria that preclude and predict the outbreak of a pandemic and all but one have been met in regard to the H5N1 strain of bird flu - the yet-to-be establishment of an efficient human-to-human transmission. Experts warn that this final precursor will occur and soon. Dr. David Nabarro of the World Health Organization said on Thursday, "We expect the next influenza pandemic to come at any time now, and it's likely to be caused by a mutant of the virus that is currently causing bird flu in Asia." Once the virus mutates to include human infection Nabarro warns that it would be only a "matter of weeks" for the virus to establish itself worldwide. The WHO has been warning world governments for over a year that the first pandemic of the 21st century is coming but Nabarro admits that one of the organization's toughest challenges has been persuading various nations of the seriousness of the outbreak of a new and deadly flu strain. Nabarro stresses that nations need to prepare now before such an outbreak, in areas of pandemic response plans, public disclosure plans should an outbreak occur and development/stockpiling of effective vaccines. As well, nations must have contingency plans in place to have vaccine makers at the ready to produce vaccines immediately following the outbreak of a pandemic. Currently only 23 countries have significant stockpiles of antiviral drugs including Tamiflu (Roche) which has been proven slightly effective in treating some of the symptoms of avian flu. None of the 23 are considered "third world" countries and experts predict that most developing nations would have no protection at all against a pandemic. The World Health Organization relying on historical data and applying intricate mathematical calculations predict that a flu pandemic will cripple at least temporarily public services and nation's economic productivity. At the onset of a pandemic, all government levels would have to restructure emergency, intensive care units and morgues in an effort to cope with sudden and large increases in activity. World governments must also expect marked increase in absenteeism in all sectors of the labour force, utilities and telecommunications. Nations will concentrate their efforts on protecting their own citizens and large quarantined border closings on land, sea and air will be an option for governments wishing to contain the illness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Yada yada yada. And AIDS is going to wipe out all of mankind by 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 The flu virus killed over 40 million in a few months within living memory, hardly a joke. It's a fact that there will be another flu pandemic, I've got my tamiflu just in case it's sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Oh, well, it's a FACT then, is it? Oh, well, pardon ME then. (Yawn.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkkbound04 Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Every one I know in infection control services are adamant its 'when' not 'if' a flu pandemic happens. Get your tamiflu/relenza drugs sourced early as once this starts,even in the early stages there will be very tight control of supply and general mayhem in treatment centres. JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun_Kong Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Bkkbound04 said:Every one I know in infection control services are adamant its 'when' not 'if' a flu pandemic happens. Get your tamiflu/relenza drugs sourced early as once this starts,even in the early stages there will be very tight control of supply and general mayhem in treatment centres. JP Anybody bought any of either of these in BKK/PTY? Any pharmacy/hospital recommendations, idea of cost? Is anybody's embassy stocking these, available for its citizens abroad, should an outbreak occur? Does this year's flu shot help with the H5N1 strain? And yes, I suppose this info is available somewhere on the net, but any brains out there with quick info? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limbo Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Is this tamiflu/relenza drug available in Thailand? How effective is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redbaron Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Wasn't SARS going to kill us all too? Just in case... anyone know where to get these drugs down under? Otherwise, see you in hell! I'll be with the pirates, and Bart Simpson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sayjann Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 every Year at work the signs are put up. 'don't be caught out and have your Flu jab now'. yeah right,never had one and never had the Flu. People who have the jab go sick in droves............. when the first Hep B jabs came out i was one of the first at my place of work to have one. i was told that i would be injected with a small sample of HEP B and my body would use it's immune system to watch and learn. my body would would locate and kill the virus and find it's own level of immunity. i was fucked for 4 Months,off sick and very poorly. thank fuck i am hopefully protected now........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh_Hoy Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Redbaron said:Wasn't SARS going to kill us all too? Just in case... anyone know where to get these drugs down under? Otherwise, see you in hell! I'll be with the pirates, and Bart Simpson. Saw an interview with a doc from the U.S. National Centers for Disease Control concerning the SARS. He sees a possibility of a SARS pandemic...and points out that the big difference between various "flu" viruses and the SARS is that the outbreak 2 or 3 years ago resulted in a 50% mortality rate among those infected. So...maybe u won't get infected, but if u do, maybe you'll only have a 50-50 chance of survival. Not good odds. HH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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