spirit_of_town_hall Posted November 8, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 I have just spoken to my Dad about this. He is 70 and said that he has seen these things happen 3 times before in this life. Said that the US dollar and the Pound are too strong and necessary in the world for anything to happen. He said that the people who bought gold in the last instances ended up with gold that cost less than they bought it for. STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 Your Dad is probably right STH. Life will go on. Did he tell you how long the recession might last? Reason I ask because I own a bit of gold and I'm wondering when to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spirit_of_town_hall Posted November 8, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 I didnt ask him that, I will ask him tomorrow. If I owned gold now I would hold on to it. The Kruggerands on ebay are going up and there are plenty of bidders. There must be some ex pat south africans sitting on a pile of kruggerands which they are selling off one by one when they need some cash. STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 I'm not sure who's doing the buying and selling but it's not retail. I don't think the real panic buying has started yet. There's a lot of open interest in the futures market. Could have trouble getting past $850. The DOW still looks very shaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCgringo Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 THe sky is falling ! OK....who is getting the $100 for a barrel of oil ? how is that divided up ? and how much do those Wall Street speculators on TV make when they "predict" oil will go up ? Why are they on TV since it looks like they are only pimping their own business , same as the "buy gold" speculators, If I have a wherehouse full of ahhh "gadgets" , can I get on TV and bullshit the public about the coming shortage and how you better get in on the gadget rush ? I guess I will never believe this crash will happen , until after its over.... OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 It doesn't have to be a crash OC. A crash is what happens when everybody tries to dump their shares at the same time. That hasn't happened yet. What's happening is fear. Fear of increased demand on dwindling resources. Fear of a falling dollar. Fear of Chimpynomics (thank you SD). Fear of WW3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkoktraveler Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 The housing situation in the USA was the big sit up for the fall. Let's say a house was worth $200,000. With a lot of potential buyers, the house sells for $250000. The new owners take out a $300,000 loan with the hopes the house will be worth $350,000 next year. The county assessors office looks at the house and says the house is a $400,000 house. The new owners refinance and get a $400,000 mortgage with money left over to burn based upon the count's assessment. After 3 - 5 years, the mortgage leander expects larger payments (balloon loan). The home owner goes to refinance but finds out they got a $200,000 home. Fark. The first bank lender sold the loan. The second bank resold the loan and so did the third bank. The 4th bank gets to hold the bag and the home owner gets farked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCgringo Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 Economies grow on confidence,,,, mostly they spend if they feel confident they will have a job and more money in the next paycheck, If not people keep their hands in their pockets.... Thats why a slow down is more likely than a crash , people still have jobs , so they will still spend ! OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 True...confidence is the key. And having a job of course. But it also has a lot to do with what percentage of your income goes to paying the mortgage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shygye Posted November 8, 2007 Report Share Posted November 8, 2007 ...The first bank lender sold the loan. The second bank resold the loan and so did the third bank. The 4th bank gets to hold the bag and the home owner gets farked. Nope! The brokerage houses like M Lynch bundled the house loans and sold them to "investors", like that bank in the UK that almost collapsed. M Lynch got caught with $10 billion they had not yet sold. The CEO walks away with $160 mil for steering the co. into its biggest loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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