Is the downturn affecting your town ?

[gobbledonk]

Hi All,

 

For all the doom and gloom, I am still sardined on the train to work, I still stand in a long queue at lunchtime, and I still have to endure about 10.000 middle-class brats at my local shopping centre each weekend. OK, 40 people were given pink slips at another software house down the road, but those guys had problems way before subprime bit.

 

How will I know when the recession has actually started to bite, short of losing my own job ? We are told that Europe is already in recession, Japan has been there for God-knows-how-long (technically, isnt that a 'mini depression' ?) and the US is almost certainly going to have to accept that they 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth isnt called a 'Bush presidency', its called a recession ..

 

I remember when we had a million unemployed in Oz (early 90's) - at the time more than 10% of the workforce - and most people seemed to get by. The difference now is that the ratio of living costs to the dole is much higher : unless you could put a roof over your head for less than a hundred bucks a week, I cant see how anyone could live on the dole now. And thats assuming that the taxpayer can afford to support those without jobs.

 

I know there are a lot of other threads about this at the moment, and I read plenty of hearsay, but what *direct* impact has the downturn had in your town ? Are people still spending like there is no tomorrow ?

 

Thanks,

 

Gobble

[Julian2]

Firstly Gobble, there's still more than a million unemployed in Australia. Our previous unlamented leader cooked the books by shifting them onto the Disability allowance.

I live in a Thai village which is probably a microcosm of the world economy. Some people manufacture, some work for a wage. No welfare, limited pensions.

The workers have increased their daily rate by about 25% and shown a reluctance to travel unless transport is supplied. A lot of this was down to fuel costs but I noted when I filled up the other day that diesel has dropped from a yearly high of 40B a liter down to 24. This will make a huge difference.

The predicted unemployment increase shouldn't have a great effect. Most of the local people working in the city are single college girls who will just come home and wait it out if they lose their jobs.

[gobbledonk]

Thanks J - heartening report. Will be interesting to see how your view compares to that of board members living in the US or Europe. I dont even know if the situation is worse in Syd/Mel etc : we only see glimpses on TV and its usually sensationalised. The 'Insight' program here has tried to cover various aspects, but their recent audiences seem to be top heavy with people who have a barrow to push. When a property developer tells me that everything is fine and he cant see what people are going on about, I dont take a great deal of joy from that reassurance. :smirk:

[Torneyboy]

From my point of view ...people are being cautious ..putting off overseas Holidays and take a wait and see attitude ...

 

A lean mean Christmas coming up i feel...

[colorwolf]

...

I live in a Thai village which is probably a microcosm of the world economy.

...

perhaps you have been living in this Thai village a few decades too long? and starting to suffer the same misplaced "this is the center of the universe" attitude so many thais (or most other peoples, for that matter) suffer from?

now, if you were living in a village somewhere in southeast china...

[Julian2]

You may like to look up microcosm in the dictionary. I think you'll find it doesn't mean "center of the Universe".

Microcosm: a little world; a world in miniature

I'm sure that your definition of "Center of the Universe" would involve some where much closer to where you are.

[drogon]

I doubt colorwolf opens often a dictionary given his usually gratuitous and agressive comments (and useless) -> self-centered may I say.

 

About Europe:

Been forced to travel a bit recently and have extensive contacts with other development teams/offices around Europe.

 

Seems that everyone is starting to think twice before buying something "expensive".

 

Of course, at most people's level it is the usual:

"will I loose my job too", "prices have gone up for the fuel" etc...Which is human.

 

Even with people earning quite comfortable salaries and with enough qualifications to expect finding another job if they are fired there is some "morosity" in the air.

 

This is good to hear another tune than the one from the Spanish as here the situation is really bad and is going from bad to worse for many.

[gobbledonk]

tb, i am glad i paid for my feb flight in early oct : one prediction iz for the little auzzie bleeder to be below 0.60 early next year ...

 

gobble, who once had many baht in the bank

 

[gobbledonk]

drogon, I believe that your IT folk are in much the position that we have in oz - very wary. amazing how quickly a project which was previously deemed 'mission-critical' can be dropped when money gets tight. :smirk:

 

 

[drogon]

True, especially in the financial sector.

 

Received some weeks ago a definite offer for a consulting position in Paris paying xxxK euros, very important implementation project.

 

-> was waiting for the contract when the consulting company called to say the project was on hold.