Mighty Euro back up above 50 again - Almost on parity to Sterling now!

[HeartThais]

eur is diving temporary due to strong indications interest rates will be lowered yet another .5% on fridays ecb meeting.

 

Depends on how long you mean by temporary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ao1sJ6sJfMCw

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see the ECB rate hit 1% this year with Trichet denying it all along the way there.

[HeartThais]

Deustche Bank reports 4.8B 4th quarter loss that leaves them in the red for the year. They are blaming this on credit trading but that is patently ridiculous. They are losing money on a lot more than credit. My biggest fear is that this is a major red flag that the currency crisis in Emerging Market is coming close to blowing as I suspect a big chunk of their losses came from EM trading.

 

Also, spreads between sovereign debt in Italy, Greece and Germany are widening. This is one indicator of whether a country might leave the Euro. The current market consensus based on a trading site that a country will leave the Euro within a year is at 30%. I think that's a bit high but I would guess no lower than 20%.

 

I am still a strong believer in Euro longterm. However, if you are planning a vacation in Thailand, I still think the safest and definitely the lowest volatility bet will be dollars.

[WorldFun]

so u r saying if a Euro holder is about to depart for LOS he is better off converting his hard earned EUR to USD before again converting to THB or paying BGs direct in USD? interesting idea...

[HeartThais]

No, of course not. But if you are planning a trip to LOS in the future or you live in LOS and the amount you spend is significant, it may be worth your while to convert that amount into dollars for the meantime. Or open a forex trading account. www.dbfx.com

 

The lowest risk option is just convert to baht but I still think baht depreciation is coming though I have been wrong so far. It's been a race to the bottom and the west is winning. I think I owe you a beer unless something crazy happens over the next two weeks!

[Faustian]

1 Pound 52.x Baht

 

It's been hovering around this mark for a while now.

 

I hope for a recovery in the pound soon.

 

I hope...pray....sacrifice goats to ancient pagan gods....etc

[The_Munchmaster]

....I hope for a recovery in the pound soon.....

I don't.

[teddy]

Latest articles I have read predict that the pound will be down as low as $1.3 within the next few months.

[Faustian]

I'd better sacrifice more goats then......

[The_Munchmaster]

Excellent. :thumbup:

[Faustian]

Bad! Very bad! Super bad!