Mentors Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 As Pacific Ocean temperatures rise, the number of starving people will rise with them The growing certainty that the weather phenomenon known as El Niño will soon arrive could spell disaster for the world's poor and threaten shaky governments in the throes of the global economic downturn. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology said in a report last week that, "More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there's very little chance of the development stalling or reversing." This is very bad news for agriculture as El Niño is expected to hurt crops. In October 2008, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Office estimated that 965 million people were starving worldwide, with 16,000 children dying every day from hunger-related causes. As food prices soared in 2007 and 2008, the FAO estimated that the number of undernourished people rose by 75 million. According to an FAO briefing paper published in September 2008, China and India alone account for 42 percent of the chronically hungry people in the developing world. If the current changing ocean temperatures in the so-called Southern Oscillation continue to rise, a lot more will go hungry. Wheat yields in India, the world's third-largest producer, are expected to drop dramatically. In the three most recent major El Niños, the price of palm oil, which accounts for more than 30 percent of world edible oil production, spiked upwards by 216 percent. In the 1983 and 1997 El Niños, palm oil yields fell by 10.5 percent and 16.3 percent respectively. The weather phenomenon hit sugar cane production in Thailand in 1997-1998, but was offset by positive performance in Brazil, Pakistan and Australia although prices fluctuated wildly, skyrocketing from US12¢ per pound in October 1997 to US72¢ in September 1998, a six-fold increase. Indonesia, which is just coming into its own as a sugar producer, can be expected to be hit by dry climactic conditions. full article http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1962&Itemid=594 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 Actually a related article now predicts a minor 'ice age' is approaching based on an unexpected lack of 'sun spots' which also happened during last 'ice age' around 4-500 years ago - so doom & nay sayers you can home & rest your case now (well except piggy with his exceptional milage he's no major risk to the poor & hungry) Example links: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdigg.com%2Fgeneral_sciences%2FThe_Sun_is_Dead_Could_lack_of_sunspots_start_mini_ice_age&ei=F25USuSqCKSO6AOE7tTNBw&usg=AFQjCNGrGtC8q07fT9lpeKkeyV2IzXwOdA&sig2=MwOx3hVVXJZGtPdMBoTS8g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentors Posted July 8, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 not a good outlook in both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 you don't agree LOS is too hot? a prolonged cold spell would be very welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 Sunspot activity is about to increase, research published a couple of weeks ago states. We aren't due an extended period of low solar activity, like the "Maunder minimum"....so don't worry. But then who knows....? Certainly somethings up weather wise. Very quiet typhoon season so far, hardly any hurricanes also. Odd wind patterns everywhere and the monsoon has failed to materialise across much of India. The Pacific has a huge bubble of very warm water to its west, but the east and Atlantic both haven't warmed sufficiently to produce lots of tropical events. It still may change, but it's already very late and very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekong Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 you don't agree LOS is too hot?a prolonged cold spell would be very welcome I am looking forward to coming home to BKK for 3 weeks for the cool weather, mercury has been hitting 45-46 C daily here now and it doesn't drop much below 38 C in the middle of the night. Forecasts here reckon its going to be one of the hottest summers for many years with Aug / Sept temps expected to sit in the mid 50's and maybe breaking 60 C on a few occasions, I am not looking forward to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 I see what you're saying, but at least you got fairly 'dry' conditions or lets say low humidity so 'real feel' temperature might be not far off what we get over here or maybe not - 60deg c. fark think I experienced something close in India not missing it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekong Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 That is Heat Index Thailand before I came here was daytime 36C / 70% RH giving a HI of 52C wheras here its currently 46C / 25% RH HI of 53C so on par. Its when it gets hotter that even small changes in Humidity make major differances to HI, 58/10 is an apparent / HI of 58C but if the Humidity was to rise 5% to 15% it then jumps to a HI of 66C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 Indeed, the hottest shade temperature ever recorded is 57.8 degrees C... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records The heat index is a whole different ball game....It can reach 50 C ++ in Bangkok too. It has done on many occasions. Not at present though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SurinBum Posted August 1, 2009 Report Share Posted August 1, 2009 you don't agree LOS is too hot?a prolonged cold spell would be very welcome Compared to what? We sit in the torrid zone. As to the overheating goes....have you experienced the winters of the last 10-12 seasons? The only noticable item has been the lack of deciphering the period from hot/dry into rainy. Last few rainy seasons have come before Songkran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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