'Final showdown', or just another futile rally?

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

4 Mar 2010

 

 

Opinion by Veera Prateepchaikul

 

 

The Red Shirts' are busily building up, boasting they will bring a million protesters to Bangkok and force Abhisit Vejjajiva out of office. In response, the government has taken a defensive attitude, confident in its belief the numbers will be nowhere near that many. .

 

The Red Shirts’ ambitious plan to converge en masse on Bangkok on March 14, topple the Abhisit government and bring on a general election reminds me of the famous “War of Nine Armies†back to 2328 B.E. (1785 A.D.) when the kingdom of Burma waged a war of attrition against the Rattanakosin kingdom during the reign of King Rama I.

 

As history tells it, King Padung of Burma amassed a total of 144,000 troops, divided into nine armies, to attack the capital of Rattanakosin (or Bangkok as it is known today). His aim was to crush the Rattanakosin kingdom in the same way as Burmese invaders sacked the capital of Ayutthaya almost two decades earlier.

 

The nine Burmese armies headed for the Rattanakosin capital from five directions:

 

- The first army marched across the border into Ranong and swept northward toward Nakhon Si Thammarat.

- The second army came through Ratchaburi.

- The third and fourth armies came through the Mae Lamao pass in Tak.

- The fifth, sixth and seventh armies invaded from the north, attacking the northern cities of Chiang Saen, Chiang Mai, Lamphun and Lampang before joining the third and fourth armies in a sweep toward Kamphaeng Phet, Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan.

- The eighth and ninth armies, numbering 50,000 and led by King Padung himself, marched across the border through Three Pagoda Pass.

 

Whether by shere orcoincidence or deliberation, the Red Shirt army also plans to descend on Bangkok for their “final showdown†with the government from five directions.

 

From the Northeast, the Red Shirts plan to gather in Nakhon Ratchasima, where they expect to mobilise up to 150,000 people before moving to Bangkok on March 14.

 

The second route is from Ayutthaya, where organisers claim about 80,000 Thaksin supporters from the central and western regions will gather on March 13.

 

Rayong is the converging point of supporters from the eastern region. Red Shirt leaders claim they will attract as many as 100,000 supporters here.

 

Supporters from the northern region will gather in Nakhon Sawan on March 12, and supporters from the South will coverge in Samut Sakhon.

 

The plan is for Red Shirts from the provinces to be joined by their colleagues in Bangkok, whose exact number has yet to be proclaimed. About 100 boats carrying thousands of Thaksin’s followers will also travel from Ayutthaya down the Chao Phraya river, the plan being to dock at Tha Chang pier.

 

In the “War of Nine Armiesâ€Â, King Rama I, despite being outnumbered two to one managed to defeat the invading Burmese and save the capital of Rattanakosin. According to history, instead of concentrating his forces on defending the capital, the king sent Thai troops out to attack the Burmese while they were still camped at Nakhon Sawan, the Three Pagoda pass and Ratchaburi. Guerrilla-style warfare also saw his troops attack the invaders' supply lines.

 

Historians believe this unconventional offensive, taking the fight to the invading armies, was the key factor in his victory over the Burmese.

 

Now back to the March 14 “final showdown†between the Red Shirts and the Democrat-led government. It seems the government plans a conventional defensive approach, confronting the protesters in the capital where the “battle†will be fought. Historians will watch the outcome with great interest.

 

[color:red]If the Red Shirt leaders can actually bring in one million protesters, or even anything close to this huge number, as they claim they will, then anything at all could happen.

 

Just imagine the chaos that would ensue, given the already notorious traffic congestion, if the protesters scatter to various traffic choke points to rally in a peaceful manner.

 

With the traffic completely paralysed for just one or two days, it could possibly be enough for the government to be seen as dysfunctional and to justify the Red Shirts’ call for a House dissolution and fresh elections.[/color]

 

But if the Red Shirt leaders fail to gather enough support, the so-called “final showdown†will be just another futile rally. It may also mark an end to their cherished battle royale, which at this point remains an impossible dream.

 

A switch to violence by hardcore protesters – if that actually happens - would be suicidal to the Red Shirt movement and would only further alienate the movement from the mass of the people.

 

 

[cavanami]

Do we have to "say" it...

 

[khunsanuk]

Hi,

 

So, 3 of those 5 directions claim to gather a combined 330,000 people. That means that there should be another 670,000 from the North, the South and from those already in BKK.

Still sounds highly unlikely.

 

Sanuk!

 

[Julian2]

I suspect the army will shut the main highways down again, car loads of people who look like protesters will be turned back.

Before the last major rally roadblocks were set up right through the north with soldiers stopping every car and bus.

[BadaBing]

where the hell are all these people gonna sleep ?

[Flashermac]

I recall the city had to spend several million baht cleaning up and repairing the Jatujak market area after the Red Shirts settled in there a few years ago. But what the heck, it was only urban taxpayers' money.

 

 

 

 

 

[Julian2]

So who paid for the yellow shirt occupation of the airport? Surely that came more to "several million baht"?

[Bangkoktraveler]

What is going to be the next popular shirt? Maybe we should start making them now?

[Flashermac]

So who paid for the yellow shirt occupation of the airport? Surely that came more to "several million baht"?

 

 

Plus the expenses of cleaning up Government House. Both sides are costing the country (meaning everyone else) a helluva lot of money.

 

p.s. I was needling a colleague the other day about the annual Thammasat-Chulalongkorn football match. I commented that the TU shirt is red with yellow (the uni colours). He snapped back at me, "It is NOT red with yellow ... it's YELLOW with red!"