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Stickman

Confidence in the Thai Economy?

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The BAHT was 35.5 a few minutes ago,

same as before the stock market crash and hours after the bombings,

 

Market closed New Years, it will be interesting to see the Tuesday market opening.

 

Its a pity because like always the poorer people will get hurt when the economy dives :(

 

OC

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For once I do agree with Gadfly that they appear to heading in a dangerous direction. I think this is because there are some hard-line nationalist that are now able to express their opinions and it gets printed.

 

Thank you. I don't intend this as an "I told you so", but I know memories are short (mine certainly is) and I do want to make a point here so that others can understand how to read and how much weight to give my posts when I am posting about 'developments' here (as opposed to my opinion about developments).

 

Many months ago, long before most of this was in the papers, I posted that plans to dramatically change visa rules, work permit rules and the Alien Business Law would be announced. All of this has happened.

 

This wasn't done as part of some random 'doom and gloom' campaign; what I posted has now happened. And I am not smart enough to figure this out simply by myself (hint).

 

I know some of the actors in this little drama, but I don't know the final scene. I don't think they do either; it has been written yet. I also have some ideas about what is drivig some of this, but, as I said in the bombing thread, that will have to wait until I am less hung over.

 

If nothing else, 2007 will be interesting.

 

Don't start gloating yet, all I said was their opinions are being heard for change, not that they would win. There is serious money in Thailand and a lot is tied up with foreign owners.

One scenario that does worry me is if you are the CEO of one the Thai conglomerates (like PTT Chem or IRPC) that have embarked on large expansions (as part of the world wide oil & Gas construction boom) if asked if you would like to make Bayer's or one of the other Multi Nationals life difficult in Thailand, are they going to say no? In almost every industry, except the automobile, Thai companies are competing with MNCâ??s. The MNCâ??s expanded in Thailand back in late 90-early 2000â??s mini boom, but donâ??t seem to be making any move in Thailand now ; I guess because they have shot their wad in China (doesn't help that PTT controls the feedstock).

You are right though, 2007 will be interesting.

TH

 

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Don't start gloating yet, all I said was their opinions are being heard for change, not that they would win. There is serious money in Thailand and a lot is tied up with foreign owners.

 

Not gloating and never said they would "win", but did say there would be changes, or serious efforts to effect changes, in the law, and correctly identified where we would see these changes and efforts to make changes.

 

I think part of this is driven by vested local interests, but I don't think this is entirely economic. There are conservative social forces that feel threatened by globalization, and you can find many of them in the civil service.

 

I don't know who will "win" or what winning is in this context, but I see a bit of backlash against foreigners in the context of larger uneasiness with globalization. Thailand is not unique here, but the way this is playing out in Thailand is uniquely Thai.

 

The agenda of this 'group' - protectionists or social conservatives - is bad for Thailand. It's bad everywhere, and that includes the US.

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