Confidence in the Thai Economy?

[Gadfly]

It all really depends upon whether the Ministry of Commerce's committee on amending the Alien Business Law changes its recommendations and whether the government actually adopts those recommendations. In today's The Nation there was a hint that maybe they will delay making any changes.

 

I think the more sensible and commercially minded in the new government realize that it would be a castrophe to adopt the current recommendations, and hoping to defer matters into the indefinite future. But it's hard to figure out who is leading the charge on amending the law and whose interests they really are trying to advance.

[ThaiHome]

Transferring the money in to buy property is ok, it is recommended you explicitly state on transfer it is for property purchase and give the address. You will probably have to have a conversation with bank manager to prevent the 30% withholding.

 

As far as ownership-condos no change. I would wait and see for property/houses, unless you are just putting it in wifeâ??s name.

 

For once I do agree with Gadfly that they appear to heading in a dangerous direction. I think this is because there are some hard-line nationalist that are now able to express their opinions and it gets printed. I do think they will lose in the long run. Can you really see Toyota or Bayer being run out of Thailand?

TH

 

[AF16]

Puting it in the name of my wife is not a problem, but as it's no longer possible to hold double passports in Norway, it will only be a matter of few years before that will present a problem.

 

The reason we want it in our name, as it's really going to be her family that stay there anyway is in case of death where we want to prevent other family members going for inheritance.

 

We are fine with her brother getting it or his son, as we intend for the brothers son to live there anyway, but again we want control if something goes wrong.

[Old Hippie]

O.k. so, suppose things get taken to the extreames mentioned/speculated on, the economy will "crash?" If so, this might mean lower prices, and perhapes a reversal of laws/policies in time to take advantage of the lower prices? Hoping anyway...your take on the out come if it goes as "planned?"

 

Additionally, I noticed the $$ slipped against the Bhat a bit (last time I checked anyway...could they be quietly allowing it to slip? or will more corrections /actions occur if it drops to far?

[saucier01]

Glad you brought up the point about construction cranes.

 

I've been fortunate that I have been able to visit LOS every 6 months for the last 5 years. I cannot honestly remember when I have seen so much new building in a city before.

 

Standing at the Nana BTS I was thinking how many of those new buildings will be completed??

 

I have been toying with the idea of buying a condo in BKK for sometime now. I doubt it will happen, seems like prices have gone up by atleast 30% in a very short time, if they haven't doubled.

[Gadfly]

For once I do agree with Gadfly that they appear to heading in a dangerous direction. I think this is because there are some hard-line nationalist that are now able to express their opinions and it gets printed.

 

Thank you. I don't intend this as an "I told you so", but I know memories are short (mine certainly is) and I do want to make a point here so that others can understand how to read and how much weight to give my posts when I am posting about 'developments' here (as opposed to my opinion about developments).

 

Many months ago, long before most of this was in the papers, I posted that plans to dramatically change visa rules, work permit rules and the Alien Business Law would be announced. All of this has happened.

 

This wasn't done as part of some random 'doom and gloom' campaign; what I posted has now happened. And I am not smart enough to figure this out simply by myself (hint).

 

I know some of the actors in this little drama, but I don't know the final scene. I don't think they do either; it has been written yet. I also have some ideas about what is drivig some of this, but, as I said in the bombing thread, that will have to wait until I am less hung over.

 

If nothing else, 2007 will be interesting.

[Gadfly]

OH - not saying the economy will crash, but there could be some turbulence if the plane continues on its present course.

 

Don't judge economies simply by currency exchange fluctuations. In the medium to long term, the Baht should appreciate against the dollar (you see this using the "Big Mac" or "Starbucks" indexes published in The Economist) and Thailand should have a higher GDP growth rate than the US or other developed countries. Whether this actually happens in the near term is another matter, but the most important point here is that mere currency appreciation or depreciation - unless it is dramatic and disruptive - is not a sign of economic health or serious problems.

[Old Hippie]

Ok Thanks for you reply. What I was onto was whether or not the exchange market/rate can be or was being manipulated by the USA or Thailand for whatever gains could come.

[Gadfly]

I am headed off for a nap, but it has been obvious for months that the Bank of Thailand should have started lowering interest rates. This addresses a number of problems here and it is the classic way to address currency appreciation - make the currency less valuable (value being the interest it earns).

 

This didn't happen. Why? Could speculate, but that requires more mental energy than I can muster now. Instead, the Bank of Thailand took moves that are not market friendly and generally discredited in financial circles. You can now see why they are discredited.

 

Is this manipluation? I know some of the BOT people. Some have a sound background in mainstream economics; others, really do subscribe to more unconventional views. The crazy justification for what the BOT did when it started capital controls read like something out the prayer book of the latter group.

 

Off to find some Nuprin.

[Old Hippie]

Happy New Year!