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2 hours ago, chocolat steve said:

The polls have tightened. Trump could very well be re-elected. It will be close. 

Unbelievable but true. Now that he tries to cripple the postal system for obvious reasons the US finally arravid at banarepublic level. I would have thought this is popular only in some ex soviet-republics east of Russia. Another 4 years Trump should finally ruin the US.

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Trump just asked for and got,  a humiliating loss at the U.N. over Iran arms embargo 

The US lost its bid on Friday to extend the UN arms embargo after Putin proposed a summit of world leaders to avoid "confrontation" over the American "snapback" threat.

"Probably not," Trump said when asked whether he would participate in the Putin-backed summit.

In the Security Council vote, Russia and China opposed extending the weapons ban, which is due to expire in October.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/trump-threatens-snapback-sanctions-iran-200815231643369.html

He wants to go back to where they were before he pulled out of the Iran agreement...

"It's a serious mistake; we regret that," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Saturday of the Security Council vote in a news conference during a visit to Poland.

In the Security Council vote, Russia and China opposed extending the weapons ban, which is due to expire in October.

Eleven members abstained, including France, Germany and the UK, while the US and the Dominican Republic were the only "yes" votes.

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So he's not doing Putin's bidding.

Who is a clever boy now then?

The way I see it, is that a Trump suffered this loss intentionally, so that Putin could appear to be, the reasonable one and because Putin told him on his weekly telephone call, to do so.

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Hey Coss, I certainly hope so. Real Clear Politics has an aggregate of major polls. Its a fairly decent prognosticator. I don't think Florida will go Biden. Its leaning there but Florida is a wacko state. If it goes Biden its over I think. Of the toss ups only Minnesota and Maine are pretty much going for Biden. Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, south Carolina, Alaska will go Trump and probably/possibly Ohio. I think Ohio will go Trump because Blacks (and the growing Latino population) won't come out in numbers. The30re are enough electoral votes in the leaning to get him over. I don't think Biden will get all of them. He'll get roughly 300 points give or take 10 or twenty points on either side. He only needs 270. 

But we can hope. 

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Interesting. With regards to Obama and the birtherism debate, it was started by a supporter of Clinton during the primaries. The person had no connection to the campaign or any role in government, the campaign, etc. Trump (and others) jumped on it after it was dead on arrival within the Democratic primaries. Clinton nor anyone else made any issue of Obama's right to be President. 

This is an asinine op ed piece when every court in America and the law said if you are born on American soil (which includes embassies and other locations that are de facto American soil) you are American no matter what state of citizenship or non citizenship your parents are. Yes, an illegal woman who is 9 months pregnant can cross over and give birth and that kid has every single right as Cav has...hehehehe  Now we can argue about whether it should be changed or whatever and that is a constitutional event. The law is clear. 

And don't think latinos are the first to do that. 100s of 1000s of European immigrants did the same. 

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Re polls and such, also the nytimes article Bubi has kindly linked to:

Yes polls... and they change, right up until the last hours and minutes if they can.

I think I've said this before, it was one of our politicians, Jim Bolger who in 1993 coined the phrase, "Bugger the pollsters"

On people who are the only ones who predicted....  If I predict a range of outcomes, let's say 27 different scenarios, for the forthcoming Presidential election, and publish them separately in 27 different discrete places, odds are, that one will be correct. I can then claim after the election, "Expert Status" and hell, I might even get a job in cabinet.

In the beginning times of uTube I once opined that the average 'merican, would do anything for fame, including get down on hands and knees and bark like a dog, if they thought it would garner public attention.

Turns out, I should have included everyone in that statement, not just 'mericans, I mean, we've all seen video of a certain monarch, training his wives, to do just that, whilst naked. ( the wife not the monarch)

 

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