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What if Pheu Thai Wins?


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But the key question in all of this, is how will the results affect the mongering?


Will either of the two results, foment disruption, and if so, which of the possible outcomes, will be the most monger friendly?

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"But they can keep winners from ruling."


Which I believe they will try to do, and which I believe (I hope I am wrong) will lead to serious problems for the country this time, much more serious than we have previously seen. JMHO from what I have seen here.


Agree. With every round, it seems to get worse. The coup turned Thaksin into the marytered folk hero he is not.


To keep this in perspective, just one month ago The Economist said "polls put the two main parties roughly neck and neck, so it should be an exciting race.." Now, with an election about one week away, the polls are showing PT clearly in the lead.


It's almost as if the Democrats just assumed they would win as if this was a foregone conclusion. Now they're running scared.


Putting aside policy issues (which largely seem to be irrelevant to this contest in any event), the PT has run a much better campaign. As far as I can tell, Abbhisit is a very smart, decent and honest guy (can't say that for some of the others around him), but it's painful to see him on the campaign trail trying to present himself as an average "joe" Thai. It simply doesn't work. He has about as much in common with the average Thai as I do.


By contrast, Yingluk has does an amazing job. Given her lack of experience, I was expecting her to stick her foot in her mouth by saying something seriously wrong or make some serious blunder. Just the opposite has occurred. She has put tremendous ground between her Abbhisit without seriously addressing a single policy issue.


This week's The Economist (which I can't access on-line) has a great article about this. It's very interesting to contrast their views from just one month ago to what they are saying now.


If there is an intervention, I also fear that it could go seriously wrong.

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For me, they are going to get the government they deserve. I don't think it will affect farangs living here for a while. After all, it took Chavez many years to turn Venezuela back into a 3rd world western hating country.


Sadly, I think you are very wrong on this point. We all remember the anti-foreigner sentiment foster by Wacky-Thakky and his minions. If PT wins, the stock market is gonna crash (much money already leaving, much more is shorting it) and both Dow & Ford have said in Bloomberg that they will "look at their positions" in Thailand if this happens.


And then there is the case of succession and who/what/how that I can't talk about here.


That means to Thais that when the economy is totally in the shitter because foreign money has pulled out, it is the farang's fault. I fully expect to see such anti-farang sentiment to go as far as confiscating holdings of farangs -- like they tried to do in Phuket during the thaksin years by killing the corporate land holding loophole.


It'll be really ugly. And I already have been researching and even getting visas to live in another place. I'm lucky. I can run my biz from anywhere in Asia.

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That is a surprise....

Yesterday my wife also went to vote at the local temple, and there is also a large Isaan majority here, however the sentiment is definitely anti-red shirt...

As is the case from Las Vegas, per the little lizards who also voted yesterday. No one they know is pro-PT.

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Have people forgotten how Takky tried to shut down the press that did not support him? How he tried to drive away advertising from newspapers and magazines that did not support him? How he tried to put The Nation out of business and exerted enough pressure to get the editor of the Bangkok Post demoted because he allowed a reporter to quote western experts' reports on the state of the runways at Swampypoom? (The reporter got fired and has never been rehired.) Takky also doubled the amount of money foreigners had to have in the bank for a visa - both marriage and retirement, plus increasing the visa application fee nearly 400%.


He pissed off the entrenched wealthy Chinese-Thais by trying to take away the government departments they had long dominated. Expect more of that, with resulting increased animosity, which more than anything led to the coup.


I don't really expect another military coup, but Takky might meet with an unfortunate accident some day. He has a lot of folks who really hate him for stepping all over them, people with money and power - and I don't mean the military. I mean business people, who can be nastier than the military.


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Is this the Bloomberg Report you are referring to? If there is some other source, please post.


I agree with most everything in that article and that the Democrats, on balance, are better than Thaksin or his surrogates for foreign investment and foreigners generally. But Thaksin wasn't as bad as I originally thought (he certainly was bad, but not as bad as I expected, and seemed to have mellowed in the latter part of his administration - when it was in his financial interest to accomdate foreign investors, say, foreign investors in AIS) and certainly not as bad as the militarily appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA).


It was the NLA that wanted to re-write the FBA to essentially force foreigners to divest themselves of businesses they may have held for decades on Thailand. Wacky Tacky never proposed anything that wacky. Hence my view that any elected government is better for foreigners than a militarily appointed government.


You have piqued my curiosity. Is there anything out there on the internet where major foreign investors are actually saying they will re-assess their positions if PT wins? Can you kindly post links? It will help answer the question behind this thread: "What happens if Pheu Thai wins?"

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I am must admit that I more than surprised about the resurge of the PT Party which seemed to be dead and buried just a few months ago. Most key members still banned, several MP willing to switch sides to Newin’s BJT Party which then was the dark horse. Only 2 months ago PT even did not have a candidate to run for PM! When they finally chose Thaksin’s younger sister Yingluck I thought how desperate Thaksin must be and that the Democrats despite a mediocre performance will definitely win. I was actually hoping Abhisit could gain a 50 + x % and form a single party government which would have been a real chance for long needed reforms (e.g. education, election procedure, police force …).


When Yingluck made her first public statements I hoped – inexperienced as she is – she will put her foot in it at several occasions and will become a similar or even greater embarrassment as Sarah Palin became for the Republicans. Unfortunately I was wrong and considering her limited experience I must admit that she performed rather well. Aside that she refused a debate with Abhisit I don’t see any major slip and the Thais just don’t seem to care that she chickened out here.



So where does the sudden popularity of PT come from? Last year dead and buried, 2 months ago head to head with Democrats and now being far far ahead despite no party program at all. There is just an excellent marketing strategy (Thaksin has always been good in this field), the amnesty call for Thaksin and plenty of freebies for all (300 THB min wages, 15,000 THB for graduates, tablets for all children …) If PT will fulfill only some of them Thailand will be as bankrupt as Greece and the US in no time. The other reason is that the Democrats and military utterly failed in educating the masses about Thaksin’s real character, intension and crimes– despite they had 5 years to do so. At the end Thaksin could have probably selected his dog as party no. 1 and he would have won too. For me this farce is just another proof that Thailand isn’t ready for a western style democracy and would be better off with a system like Singapore. Unfortunately there is no Lee Kuan Yew clone in sight.


Possible post election scenarios?

Well there are plenty and which will finally occur strongly depends on Thaksin himself. If he really changed for the better (which I absolutely don’t believe) and is searching true reconciliation (after all he is the only person who could do so) the future might be not so bad. On the other hand if he is still same old Thaksin we all know and detest and returns full of vengeance I expect violence which will be far worse than last year. I don’t think he will have the time to worry about foreigners and nightlife in the near future. Of course I might be proven wrong again if Purachai will be part of a PT led coalition government especially if becomes interior minister again. Let’s all pray that at least this won’t happen.


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You have piqued my curiosity. Is there anything out there on the internet where major foreign investors are actually saying they will re-assess their positions if PT wins? Can you kindly post links? It will help answer the question behind this thread: "What happens if Pheu Thai wins?"


The stock market is already anticipating trouble:


Election Jitters, Political Risk Leave Scars on Thailand’s Stock Market


Political tension ahead of the election on July 3 has prompted Thai stock downgrades by a series of large foreign houses, including Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse.


Though some fund managers claim they will ignore the politics and are ready to buy Thai shares on fundamental grounds, foreign money has flowed out of the country’s stocks and bonds in recent weeks as investors worry about the election as well as the broader danger signals from Greece’s debt crisis.


Thailand was the second-best performing stock market in Southeast Asia last year, with the SET index rising 40.6 percent on a foreign money surge. The index has fallen nearly 8 percent from its April highs and is down 1.3 percent so far this year.


In terms of valuations, [color:red]Thailand is looking overpriced and vulnerable.[/color] Risk aversion has been evident in markets.


Since the start of May, [color:red]the bond market has seen $4.5 billion in foreign outflows and Thai stocks have seen $1.27 billion in outflows[/color], according to figures from the local bond market association and bourse.


That has helped push the baht to four-month lows, making it the worst performer in emerging Asia this year.


Frequent changes of government have led to a highly uncertain policy and regulatory environment in Thailand.


“We still don’t think it’s a good time to pour money into the market as the long-term scenario is negative,†said Chakkrit Charoenmetachai, an analyst. “A [color:red]Puea Thai win could mean the return of [ex-prime minister] Thaksin [shinawatra], which may lead to political chaos[/color].â€â€‚




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