Virus as a socio-economic issue

[gobbledonk]

Troops,

 

I know we are all well and truly sick of the hype surrounding the current respiratory illness sweeping the media. Regardless of the reality re its actual impact on the health of urban populations, I find several things interesting:

 

1. If you wanted to engineer a bug and release it into an urban population, HK would have to be as good a target as any. A densely populated transport and business hub with numerous high-speed connections to the rest of the world.

 

2. The real impact of your bug lies not in the ability to kill people, but its ability to spread fear. Entire apartment blocks quarantined, shopping malls and cinemas almost deserted : straight from a Hollywood movie.

 

Yeah, I'm paranoid, but it beats finding out that the world really is out to get me

[Guest lazyphil]

This has crossed my mind too, I thinks not paranoia

[Old Hippie]

It has crossed my mind as well...

 

[lopburi3]

But like the Hong Kong flu of the 50's, and yearly variants, this seems to have developed in south China; and Hong Kong is the place it meets the outside world. Yeah, the world is out to get us all.

[kamui]

As said before: Hongkong is an international hub for many goods, even viruses.

 

If you look in the history of influenza, than you will see that you do not need help of sientists to develop a more dangerous string of influenza viruses. The virus will be evolve through natural mutations sooner or later.

 

The WHO is still waiting for the mass outbreak of a new influenza virus. SARS is nothing compared to the real plagues which seems to hit the world every hundred years or so. Maybe that is why the WHO overreacted, because they are overly cautious in fear of this epidemic which certainly will stop the world economy.....

 

In 1918 an influenza killed over 20 million people all over the world. This incident is almost forgotten, presumably because of the World War I. ::

 

Source: Time Magazine, Feb. 23, 1998

The Flu Hunters

"When a mysterious and deadly flu virus struck Hong Kong last year, medical detectives from around the world, fearing a repeat of the 1918 epidemic that killed more than 20 million, sprang into action."

 

Unfortunalty I did not keep this article, but it decribed in detail the history of the influenza in 1918 and the work of an international task force which sprang in action this year again.

[check_bin_krap]

"But like the Hong Kong flu of the 50's, and yearly variants, this seems to have developed in south China; and Hong Kong is the place it meets the outside world. Yeah, the world is out to get us all"

.....................................................................

Yes, its not the first time Hong Kong gets stuff from mainland China. They have had the similar problem of bird flu some time:

 

http://www.junkscience.com/news/fluprimr.htm

 

Like a poster pointed out here before its a problem of not seperating chicken/ducks and pigs.

 

 

[Guest]

I consider myself to be adept with conspiracy theories, but I can't endorse the notion that SARS is manufactured.

 

As a terror weapon it is valueless as the infowar has been lost: everyone believes it is natural in origin and there's no way any opportunist could phone a newspaper and claim responsibility now.

 

The only other prime motive would be profit and no one profits when people don't spend money. Even the probable increase in savings rates isn't going to help you finger the banking community.

 

The death rate is too low to be the work of a lunatic and there are many deadlier diseases already at hand which makes cooking up a new milder one rather pointless.

 

You can't even postulate that this was merely a demonstration of capabilty by a group of "black hats" who hold an even deadlier suprise in store. It would make no sense to give your "enemy" the chance to practice his containment protocols.

 

As a dry run it would be better to drop the bug simultaneously on a few small cities with little external contact, send your demand letter and watch the authorities go nuts trying to figure out how you did it. In other words get all the "benefits" of a SARS attack without letting the governments get public consensus to practice quarantine or the ability to work authoritatively through the media.

[gobbledonk]

OK, lets discount the human-engineered possibility, and put it down to Mother Nature. She has repeatedly attempted to control the rampant growth of a species which threatens to put an end to ALL life on the planet. Anyone remember the chook-killing spree in HK a few years back when they realised that the 'bird flu' kinda liked the warm, moist internals of the human body ? HIV is continuing to cut a swathe through populations in sub-Saharan Africa, and I believe researchers also pinned that one on inter-species contact.

 

Someone mentioned the 1918 flu which killed 20 million people - I think this was the notorious 'Spanish Flu', and it would seem that nature was looking to take out a major chunk of the child-rearing population :

 

Not only was the Spanish Flu strikingly virulent, but it displayed an unusual preference in its choice of victims---tending to select young healthy adults over those with weakened immune systems, as in the very young, the very old, and the infirm. The normal age distribution for flu mortality was completely reversed, and had the effect of gouging from society's infrastructure the bulk of those responsible for its day to day maintenance. No wonder people thought the social order was breaking down. It very nearly did.

 

I guess my question is : how prone is Bangkok to such an epidemic ? Half of the 20 million deaths in 1918 were in India, and I believe China's large rural population will continue to spread diseases which jump from animals to man. Thailand can ill-afford to close its doors to the rest of the world, regardless of its proximity to both countries. Imagine going to a bar district and finding it deserted - just you and some guy in a mask telling you to go back to your hotel ....

 

This article seems to have been written prior to the SARS outbreak. It seems wee are all living on borrowed time, whether SARs is the next pandemic or not.

 

Spanish Flu and the HK Incident

[Guest]

How prone is Bangkok to such an epidemic? There are too many variables to make a good guess; exposure time, transmissibility, incubation and contagious periods and more would have to be factored into any estimation.

 

But if the old stand-bys of population density and public sanitation are any guidelines Thailand remains far riskier than any Western nation, but a safer bet than South Asia or the rest of Southeast Asia.