DISASTER AVOIDABLE

[shygye]

P127,

 

You block off Beach Rd to traffic. Announce with loudspeakers to clear the beach. This would have saved many lives and is very low tech and cheap.

[sfinkz]

"This points directly to one of the biggest problems I see in Thailand..."

___________________________________________________

 

This discussion points to one of the biggest problems I see outside of Thailand--the need to blame others.

 

This is a 'natural' disaster of spectacular magnitude. Once unleashed, survival depends upon timing and luck. With regards to warnings for other natural disasters, of which tsunamis by far the most infrequent:

 

Hurricanes, the most common, plagued by many false alarms because of their skittish nature, and thus a ho-hum response despite a recent upswing because of global warming.

 

Tornadoes, the science of prediction has advanced to a 30-minute window but experts do not sound the alarm as it is determined this amount of time creates only more chaos.

 

Earthquake prediction is on the threshold but still years away (didn't the Chinese, the leaders in this field, successfully evacuate a village of ~300,000 way back in the 70's a day or so before a devestating tremblor?). Despite all the scientific instruments, observing barn animals still the most reliable.

 

For some unexplainable and uncanny reason, however, here on the Pacific Plate, monstorous earthquakes seem to strike in the early morning hours, when most safely snug in detached structures.

 

Despite what someone said somewhere, to the effect 'it's fortunate it didn't happen ten hours earlier when the bars were packed' ::, thereby preserving a couple of hundred mongers in Patong with complete disregard for millions of beachcombers bordering the ocean, I can't think of a worse time for this to happen--mid-morning on a beautiful Sunday holiday morning (and many offices unstaffed) with families on a happy outing to the seashore.

[sfinkz]

To give you some idea, here on the Pacific Plate, much more prone to these events, there has been one tidal wave to strike the continental U.S., in '64 after the Alaska quake. As evidence of how we've evolved since, radio and TV stations at the time advised their listeners to "come on down to the shore and watch the tidal wave roll in", largely responsible for the couple of dozen deaths at the California/Oregon border where it hit (Seattle is considered ripe for this disaster because of its dynamics).

 

Yes, it's only a matter of time until it happens again, allowing the opportunity to assess the effectivenes of this warning system providing comfort to Westerners.

 

There are fundamental physical differences between the Pacific and Indian oceans and significant cultural differences between peoples camped upon their shores. You're not going to change the physical world. Don't bother messing with the cultural either.

 

Likewise, another tsunami will spawn in the Indian Ocean. The best guesstimate appears to be at least 4-5 centuries, when the islands may very well be submerged and the oceans drained of their lifeblood and we are journeying for holidays to outer space to have relations with extraterrestials and wondering why the authorities aren't protecting us from asteroids.

 

Nevertheless, changes will be made in this aftermath. Perhaps most effective, some offical will have keys to a songthaew with a mounted loudspeaker permanently parked on Middle Road to cruise down Beach Road after the call comes announcing, "Farangs say big wave coming!"

 

This won't be as effective for Kohs Phi Phi and Lak, however, and utterly useless for the thousands of backwater fishing villages scattered on the hundreds of islands already living outside of this world as we all know it.

 

What I would question is if there was an attempt by Thai authorities to warn their ocean neighbors. After seeing the reality, though too late, was a call placed to Sri Lanka, still to enjoy another two hours of Sunday bliss? Though also probably not enough time to scramble, it would have been considerate.

[Guest]

During World War II, why did some cities notify their citizens of an air raid?

 

Governments are expected to provide warnings and protection for their citizens - and even their guests.

 

In 1964, the US so fit to implement an early warning system. It can be done and it is not that expensive.

 

India plans on implementing a system and it looks like Thailand is going to also.

 

I feel the hardest part about implementing any kind of system is some will find fault with it. But doing absolutely nothing is not a very good solution or an answer.

 

Some claim nothing could be done. I find that hard to believe.

 

If you were a responsible leader, what would you have done?

[sfinkz]

"...why did some cities notify their citizens of an air raid?"

________________________________________________

 

To better save their asses from a viable, visible daily threat. Certainly you are not comparing an air raid to a once-in-a-half millenium natural event?

 

"If you were a responsible leader, what would you have done?"

___________________________________________________

 

To best be prepared for the aftermath of such unpredictable yet inevitable events. In this regard, I'm sure Thailand is well ahead of its Indonesian and Indian counterparts. (Here in the U.S., response plans are generally criticized for being adapted from the nuclear threat of the Cold War era rather than encompassing specific threats posed by natural disasters. There is some overlap but not universally.)

[SiamIAm]

Just posted on The Nation:

 

"Published on December 30, 2004

 

“Why weren’t we warned?” This question has been echoing around the tsunami-wrecked coast in the South ever since Sunday. The answers, none of which is very satisfactory, are at best evasive.

 

Based on interviews given by senior officials from the Meteorological Department and the Geological Resources Department, though, the official response could be paraphrased thus:

 

“The public was not warned because we weren’t sure. Tsunamis have rarely been reported in the Indian Ocean. We’re more familiar with tsunamis in the Pacific.”

 

Not very convincing. The very rationale for a warning system is to expect the unexpected. That’s what forecasters are there for. That’s what monitoring natural disasters is all about.

 

A much more tell-tale explanation of the massive failure given by another Weather Bureau official would go something like this:

 

“Since we haven’t had a tsunami in the Indian Ocean for decades, we were reluctant to issue a warning. Six years earlier, the then director-general of the Weather Bureau issued a tsunami warning for off of the coast of Phuket. One never materialised. A lot of people there condemned him for making a prediction that they claimed could scare off tourists. The public outcry there at the time practically banned him from ever visiting Phuket again. Frankly, we had this very bad memory in mind when we were considering whether or not to issue a warning.”

 

Tragic but true. Absurd and eerily surreal. A lot of lives could have been saved on that day had the country’s main weather warning agency been operating on a strictly professional basis – and not on the subjective judgement of the officials in charge.

 

It was out of fear of being subjected to social and political pressure that the government agencies concerned decided to resort to negligence of duty – to expose hundreds of thousands of people to grave danger – in order to protect their own social status. This is just one aspect of Thai society’s currently fast-deteriorating professional standards in almost every field of public service. It is a testament to the erosion of courage and commitment to professionalism throughout the entire country.

 

The standard procedure, as laid down by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in 1965, dictates that any underwater earthquake with a magnitude of greater than 6.5 must automatically trigger the tsunami warning system. That morning, the seismological monitoring section noted an earthquake initially registering 8.6 on the Richter scale. But bureaucratic inertia and timidity – instead of a clear sense of alertness and emergency management – reigned.

 

Had the officials in charge that morning been working with a clear-cut, well-rehearsed and properly communicated procedure, a tsunami warning would have been sounded. It shouldn’t have mattered to the experts in charge at the bureau on Sunday morning that such a warning might inconvenience hotel owners or tour operators in the South. They shouldn’t have even worried about possible negative feedback from certain quarters that the agency was overreacting or that it was too quick to push the panic button. They have a job to do, and a very important job it is too, one that concerns the safety of every citizen in the country. They are duty bound – professionally and ethically – to perform their task honourably. Potential public misunderstandings and undesirable political pressure are but some of the basic occupational hazards."

[chuckwoww]

They sure cleaned things up fast...

 

http://www.mangosteen-phuket.com/Mangosteen_Phuket_Resort_aftermath.htm

[Guest]

News flash...:

 

Australia has just claimed themselves as the "caretaker" for this endevour. At least where the Indian Ocean is concerned.

 

HT

[sfinkz]

'04 not exiting with a whimper. What was also freakish last night was a tornadoe warning issued for south Los Angeles county, perhaps a first. Now you may not have heard about this successfully avoided disaster, and I have on good authority our Angeleno brothers are safe, both facts I'm sure because of due vigilance by our beloved authorities. Right.

[shygye]

[color:"green"] Hurricanes, the most common, plagued by many false alarms because of their skittish nature, and thus a ho-hum response despite a recent upswing because of global warming.

 

Tornadoes, the science of prediction has advanced to a 30-minute window but experts do not sound the alarm as it is determined this amount of time creates only more chaos.

[/color]

 

WTF :: The USA Weather agency issues tornado warnings/watches all the time here in the Southeast. Also warnings of flash floods, high winds, and severe thunderstorms. There are special weather radios you can buy that sound an alarm when tornado/flood warnings are issued. Regular programming on radio and TV is interrupted to inform the public of these warnings.

 

Where the hell were you when half of Florida was evacuated this year. Or when New Orleans was evacuated due to hurricanes.

 

You demonstrate great ignorance of these basic facts.