DISASTER AVOIDABLE

[pattaya127]

There would have been no panic with a warning because the threat would not be visible to the people.

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The psychology of crowd panic may not have to do with seeing the threat or not. It's often due to these crowds rushing in a space or trying to escape thru a space that can't accommodate full orderliness in very little time. It also feeds on itself, not a thing you can say beforehand it won't happen. It is very simply a psychological response to immense duress (or stress if individual) and a situation known or unknown (though the level of stress often makes that not the most important thing at the moment people are caught within the stampede)

 

 

 

I think this disaster was avoidable and what I find strange is that many leaders of the countries effected seem to believe that many things COULD have been done and many are now planning on implementing systems so it will not happen again.

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This, i have no problem with. Our answers were about the opinion that knowing there was a tidal wave coming, 1 hour and some was enough to evacuate Patong and other places.

 

Personally, knowing how things are argued on this board, if evacuation had indeed taken place as early as possible, with still many deaths of course (let's not dream about avoiding the disaster by simply reacting at 8.15.AM) some of you would deplore how it was done, and that alarm call rushed everyone on the street at the same time, which caused unnecessary deaths and blahblah....

 

I'd say, some good could have come from it, but it would be nayed on these very pages, nonetheless.... ::

 

 

 

[Neo]

I'd say, some good could have come from it, but it would be nayed on these very pages, nonetheless

 

Glad you clarified that because I got a different impression from your rebuttal thus far. As for the latter, there has been an outpouring of respect and support on these pages for Thai's and others doing what they can under the circumstances. I would expect if they were able to act even earlier it would add that much more admiration on their efforts.

[Khun_Kong]

MightyMouse said:

Quote

"You guys that say something can be done really have no clue of human nature and crowd mentality do you? Put emotion aside here and logically think about it. Trying to get even 500 people to do anything *that they have decided to do* as a group in 1 1/2 hours is impossible"

 

Not really true.

 

I helped clear out a stadium once - we did it in about 30 minutes. I believe 50,000 people were there in attendance.

 

We were told to evacuate - no questions. Later, we found out there were armed excaped convicts outside.

 

 

If something can be prevented and it is not that expensive, why say no to it?

 

Many governments now are looking at implementing a system so this will NEVER happen again.

 

So, you were hoping that the armed convicts would be trampled to death by the 50,000 exiting people? Perhaps the armed, escaped convicts would get lost in the crowd, become confused and turn themselves in?

 

Wouldn't it have been much smarter to close off the entrances?

 

::

[Guest]

The convicts could have mingled with the crowd and escaped - but they didn't. Those that evacuated the stadium did not know why it was being evacuated. As for the criminals, they turned themselves in the next day - they could not stand the mosquitos.

 

As for people stampeding - none did.

 

 

[color:"blue"] Look at the evacuation of the twin towers on September 11, 2001. [/color] Because of the evacuation, the death toll dropped from what said would be 50,000 to less then 3000. On that day, many people risked their lives and gave their lives to evacuate the buildings. Evacuations do work!

[sayjann]

i've said it before and i will say it again.

the time of Day that the water hit was early and not easy to warn people.

yes there were many early risers who were on the beach having their early morning swim and many shop owners opening up.

 

i would have been safe as i always stay a long way from the beach and would have been comatose at that time of Day due to my intake of drink s few hours previously.

 

no matter what sort of warning system might have been in situ many people would still have been killed.

i imagine many were swept away as they slept in their beds.....

[itsmedave]

A better scenario...

 

8am (govt is aware of possible impending danger)

 

8:15am (heard over loudspeakers...on the radio and television stations) Ladies and Gentlemen, we have been informed of an earthquake in the waters of the Indian Ocean. Because of this, it is possible there may be d=some danger from high seas. For safety's sake, we are closing all beach areas and beach road until 2pm when any danger would have passed. We would recommend that everybody stay as far inland as possible until further word is given. We don't anticipate a major problem, but it is the policy of the Thai gov't that it is better to be safe than sorry."

 

Then, police crews close the beaches and request help from the resort areas to inform their foriegn guests. This happens by 8:45 am. There is no panic.

 

Yes, some would still have died...but the number likely would've been cut in half, at least. If even one would have been saved that would've been worth it, don't you think? Especially if that one was somebody you loved.

 

I don't understand why some people have this huge compulsion to defend all things Thai, right or wrong. Where is the argument here???? IF ONE PERSON LESS WOULD HAVE DIED HAD THEY DONE SOMETHING, THEN THEY MADE A MISTAKE BY DOING NOTHING.

 

They made a mistake, they are not evil, not necessarily incompent, but they made a bad mistake which caused the deaths of many people who didn't have to die. If one of my loved ones had died out there, I would be mightily offended by those who argue that it wasn't worth trying because of human nature or because many would have died anyway.

 

It is the government's #1 responsability to do whatever is necessary to protect its citizens. This government failed in that sacred duty last week, just as it failed during the SARS crisis and the bird flu epidemic. It failed.

[pattaya127]

. Evacuations do work!

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Not sure what you are saying here, comparing to 9/11. Evacuation there happened after the plane hit the towers, so?...

 

 

8:15am (heard over loudspeakers...on the radio and television stations)

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were there loudspeakers in Patong or koh lark? How many? If siren-like, how many would react to it as emergency? How many in Patong turn on the radio or Tv at 8.15?

 

Understand, your points may be good points in many situations, I am not refuting them, if taken in a general unspecific situation but all i am asking is that you put the reality of an early morning in a beach resort into it, and honestly think of all the thousand of hotel rooms, plus thai households to warn in less than 45 minutes. How many cops on duty at that hour, how many anyone on duty that can be quickly ORDERED to ORDER 1000 of people to leave everything in their room, and start walking up the hill?

 

My guess is that officials and cops have no experience or knowledge in tidal waves. Chances if they had done something, the warning would have been to ask people to not go out and stay in their rooms. I mean, even us, it took us 2 days to realize how hard it hit. Until tuesday, I had no idea that more than a few hundred had died in Patong. We had no idea, and they had no idea before it hit as well.

[jxxxl]

itsmedave said:

A better scenario...

 

8am (govt is aware of possible impending danger)

 

8:15am (heard over loudspeakers...on the radio and television stations) Ladies and Gentlemen, we have been informed of an earthquake in the waters of the Indian Ocean. Because of this, it is possible there may be d=some danger from high seas. For safety's sake, we are closing all beach areas and beach road until 2pm when any danger would have passed. We would recommend that everybody stay as far inland as possible until further word is given. We don't anticipate a major problem, but it is the policy of the Thai gov't that it is better to be safe than sorry."

 

Then, police crews close the beaches and request help from the resort areas to inform their foriegn guests. This happens by 8:45 am. There is no panic.

 

Yes, some would still have died...but the number likely would've been cut in half, at least. If even one would have been saved that would've been worth it, don't you think? Especially if that one was somebody you loved.

 

I don't understand why some people have this huge compulsion to defend all things Thai, right or wrong. Where is the argument here???? IF ONE PERSON LESS WOULD HAVE DIED HAD THEY DONE SOMETHING, THEN THEY MADE A MISTAKE BY DOING NOTHING.

 

They made a mistake, they are not evil, not necessarily incompent, but they made a bad mistake which caused the deaths of many people who didn't have to die. If one of my loved ones had died out there, I would be mightily offended by those who argue that it wasn't worth trying because of human nature or because many would have died anyway.

 

It is the government's #1 responsability to do whatever is necessary to protect its citizens. This government failed in that sacred duty last week, just as it failed during the SARS crisis and the bird flu epidemic. It failed.

 

Dave,

 

I don't think anyone is rejecting a scenerio such as the one you describe.

 

One issue discussed in this thread is should someone be held responsible for not acting in this particular event i.e., the guy who received a call from the USGS. Could your scenario have been executed given that no one was prepared; no protocol for verifying the threat, no proceedures to issue a warning, no one resonsible for escalating the warning?

 

The scenario you describe could very well work if the authorities have proceedures and protocols to execute such a plan. Hopefully in the future they will.

 

Then there is the issue of who bears the cost of a detectoin system. It's very expensive. What priority should a tsunami detection system take vs. the cost of other life-saving systems such as health care? In this case the USGS detected the threat but they are not responsible for issuing a warning. The USGS could miscalculate next time. If SEA wants to ensure threat detection, they would have to build their own system and make people accountable for issuing warnings.

 

So, in the future, should a warning system be implemented? Sure. The feasibility of the implementation in countries like Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand is yet to be determined and there are some valid points made in this thread.

 

OR, the Thai government could hire Mighty Mouse to predict the event months in advance and avoid it altogether.

[..]

itsmedave said:8am (govt is aware of possible impending danger)...8:15am (heard over loudspeakers...on the radio and television stations)...

 

Dave you are being very optimistic with your timeline here. I think it would be more like:

 

0800 = earthquake

0801-0815 = reviewed by US seismic gurus to see if it is something that is a problem*

0816-0825 = warning phone call to Thailand; since this has never happened before excessive explanation gets the point across

0826-0835 = same-same happens with provencial officials

0836-0845 = same-same with the local police

0846-0915 = police organize the effort and begin to move

0916-0929 = police try to convince holiday-makers that they need to move off the beach (that would take some effort -- how many of us have ignored fire alarms in buildings; I know I have).

0930 = tsunami

 

You may have save a few people. OK, but I still maintain that hindsight is 20/20 and that no one in the world (except Mighty Mouse) thought that this could happen. Very unfair to point fingers in this case -- and you know that I am the first to critize when it is due.

 

Regards,

SD

 

* = If every quake over 7.0 on the ocean bottom triggered a tsunami warning, there would be several a month worldwide and they would lose their effectivness ala the "boy crying wolf" fable. Also, from what I understand, a quake that is caused by plates rubbing together horizontally does not cause a tsunami. The problem is when they shift up-n-down.

[jxxxl]

Suadum,

 

Also, in this assessment, how would the Thai authorities know that this isn't a crank call or a terrorist action. The call probbaly came over a civilian phone line. In cases of this magnitude, there must be a protocol in place where someone on the Thai end is expecting a call where they know with absolute certainty who is on the other end. I doubt this was the case in the events that played out when some poor Thai guy got a call from some US scientist.