TRT is the end near...?

[Guest]

You are right about selling your vote for a few hundred Baht. That is an interesting topic in and of itself.

 

We are starting to see serious cracks in the TRT machine. I don't know where it will lead, but I wonder sometimes if there is a connection (a) those cracks and ( the dramatic and erratic changes we are seeing now in Bangkok's nightlife.

[gummigut]

Keep in mind that the diesel and stuff that's been subsidized has been cut or halted since the election.

 

Tourism has also been taking a hit and that's where the infrastructure projects come in. Least that's the right type of capital investment instead of easy credit to the masses.

 

I fear the baht sliding further is a certainty. Not so much as the Thai economy weaking but as a fact that the American $ will strengthen because everyone will shy away from the Euro as we have even more uncertainty coming up with the German ratification vote months away with Poland and Czech on it's heals. France won't be able to re-vote the ratification till 2007!!!

 

I find this ironic as I don't think the US economy will be particularly strong but remain lackluster especially with Bush racking up that deficit with the war.

 

Even if the Thai economy hits the skids, I feel Thaksin will be able to ride out his second term, albeit however bumpy it may get.

 

<<burp>>

[Redbaron]

 

I can't understand how people can sell something so precious as their vote for a few hundred baht.

 

Easy to say when you're not hungry.

[pattaya127]

I wondered how he could get such an overwhelming mandate in the last election and lose approval in just a few months.

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hum.... i heard that in the last 4 yeasrs as soon as he had been elected the first time, he was done already, just ready to pick, then when it was getting near election, oh well, he got on vote buying.

 

2 things then:

1) what interest could there ever been in discussing thai politics since it's about vote buying and never democracy at work. This, i am dumbfounded why farangs still find interest in doing this, while pretexting that, which denies there is any foundation to normal democratic voicing of one's opinion in Thailand.

 

2) He was elected on a wave of approval, not just bahts flying around, and would still, if he was running tomorrow, because simply put, he's the guy they want now. Absolutely nothing to do with his performance as PM, lest he was selling the country to the viets. The guy filled a complete vacuum in thai politics, he represents the new Thailand, up and coming, nothing deep, but enough to have him twice elected on image, not performance.

 

they will turn on him and most likely his party, once they have enough to see is face, thais need to get amused by novelty, no amount of vote buying will change that, just don't ask me when, i have no idea. From what i understand he won't run again. this guy is fucking smart!

[Guest]

Tourism has also been taking a hit and that's where the infrastructure projects come in. Least that's the right type of capital investment instead of easy credit to the masses.

Thailand could certainly benefit from investments in much needed infrastructure projects, but when you look at the new airport and the GE Invision scanner scandal (which is only the proverbial tip of the iceberg), you have to wonder how money targetted for infrastructure projects is actually being spent. Well, maybe you don't have to wonder...

 

I agree with you about Bush. CATO - not exactly a leftwing organization, but a free trade oriented think tank - has been extremely critical of Bush's spending habits. You can find an excellent article on the subject here: Cato Briefing Paper The current administration's spendthrift ways will increase the deficit, and I fear that increased public borrowing will crowd out private investment.

 

A faltering US economy is not good for Thailand. With a few exceptions, much of the EU is an economic basketcase, which means that when the US economy stumbles, developing countries with export oriented economies suffer.

 

Back here in Thailand, I expect we are in for interesting times. There could be a silver lining in all of this for tourists: a more challenging economic environment should create incentives for the government to curtail those aspects of the new social order that are discouraging tourism.

[JJsushi]

Thailand is screwed if u ask me and is just in the beginning of a demise. They will neer be able to compete in a global marjketplce in terms of human and financial capital. They squander their resources and don't invest properly in their citizens. They will always be a second rate Asian country.

 

China, India and several other Asian countries will outstrip by leagues the foreign investment they receive and their ability to create capital to acquire global assets and political relevancy. China and India alone have better educated and cheaper workforces. Global entities have already realized this. Most recently FEdEx decided to eventually shutdown their Phillipine shipping facility and build a new $150mm one in China. Oracle, Microsoft and other technology concerns are investing in Chinese universities so that they can create the educated workforce that they will need later. Singapore has given American universities such as DUke, MIT , etc liscence to create franchises of their educational programs so that Asian students will come to Singapore to receive a graduate degree from an accredited American university. In other words you get an MIT degree and never have to go to America to obatin it.

 

China and India are actually purchasing US and European companies. Thailand is bickering about airport scanners and how to bail out decrepit and financially insolvent crony businesses.

 

The only area where they will flourish and succeed is as a toursit destination and traveling hub.

Thailand will never be a place where serious business will get done. It will always be a place where one has fun in between taking care of serious business.

[..]

Pretty much hard to argue with that JJ. I will submit that China & India do not treat their people any better, but my sheer population numbers, there are more qualified Uni grads coming out there. Still, it makes a difference. Because of the population differences, Thailand needs to educate a higher percentage of their population to be competitive.

 

Cheers,

SD

 

PS - Welcome back. PM me when in town if you want to meet for a beer.

[jxxxl]

jjsushi said:

Thailand is screwed if u ask me and is just in the beginning of a demise. They will neer be able to compete in a global marjketplce in terms of human and financial capital. They squander their resources and don't invest properly in their citizens. They will always be a second rate Asian country.

 

China, India and several other Asian countries will outstrip by leagues the foreign investment they receive and their ability to create capital to acquire global assets and political relevancy. China and India alone have better educated and cheaper workforces. Global entities have already realized this. Most recently FEdEx decided to eventually shutdown their Phillipine shipping facility and build a new $150mm one in China. Oracle, Microsoft and other technology concerns are investing in Chinese universities so that they can create the educated workforce that they will need later. Singapore has given American universities such as DUke, MIT , etc liscence to create franchises of their educational programs so that Asian students will come to Singapore to receive a graduate degree from an accredited American university. In other words you get an MIT degree and never have to go to America to obatin it.

 

China and India are actually purchasing US and European companies. Thailand is bickering about airport scanners and how to bail out decrepit and financially insolvent crony businesses.

 

The only area where they will flourish and succeed is as a toursit destination and traveling hub.

Thailand will never be a place where serious business will get done. It will always be a place where one has fun in between taking care of serious business.

 

Pretty much spot on IMO.

 

Regarding education and numbers of productive people, it appears to me that Indians and Chinese take education very seriously and are highly motivated to succeed. I think it's got a lot to do with their culture compared to the mai pen rai Thais. I've been working with Thais for a long time and noticed their level of motivation is extremely low (similar to the phillippines). Combine that with prevasive corruption and you have a country that will never be a major player.

[kamui]

jjsushi said:

The only area where they will flourish and succeed is as a tourist destination and traveling hub.

Thailand will never be a place where serious business will get done. It will always be a place where one has fun in between taking care of serious business.

 

For the moment it looks very bad for the Thai tourist industry. There have just been to many bad news

- Terror in the South

- Tsunami

- Bird flu

- the general threat of terror-

- sinking ships with tourists...

The article below doesn't mention the general shut down of the night life scene and the bad treatment of tourists with drug tests e.g., but IMHO this will have a severe longtime effect on the party people. This people of course will move on to other places.

 

By the way, the current advertising campaign in international media by TAT is very weak, I even can't remember the slogan in comparison to the campaign by Malaysia.

IMHO very typical was the start of the Thai pavillion at the World Expo in Japan. The company which received the contract to built the pavillion offered doing it for cheaper price and the result was a desaster. After weeks of complaints the pavillion was redesigned for millions of baht. Of course the bidding process for the pavillion was flawless and no one is to blame. ::

 

DATELINE BANGKOK

Promote local goods among tourists

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/14Jul2005_news41.php

Daily News Editorial, July 13 _ With fears of terrorism now adding to the decline in tourist arrivals, the Thaksin government must try to promote local products among foreign tourists who still view Thailand as a safe and interesting destination.

 

More foreign exchange is needed to offset the growing trade and current account deficits caused by the higher cost of oil imports.

 

Higher oil prices make it more expensive for tourists to fly to Thailand and to travel in the country. Prices of food, accommodation and other services have also gone up as a result of the oil price hike.

 

It is estimated that the number of foreign tourists will decline this year, with some local tourist destinations suffering an 80% reduction.

 

In fact, there has been a slump in tourist arrivals here during the past six months, particularly in the southern part of Thailand. Although problems are confined to the three Muslim-dominated provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, adverse effects are also felt in nearby areas. Hat Yai district in Songkhla province, for example, has seen fewer tourists who apparently were concerned about their safety, even though Hat Yai is hundreds of miles from the three southermost provinces.

 

Meanwhile, the tsunami-devastated areas in Phuket and Phangnga are still shunned by tourists who believe another tragedy could happen. News about undersea earthquakes in the Sumatra area has added to their fears.

 

The recent bomb attacks in London have aggravated the anxiety among European and American tourists, who may opt to avoid certain countries in Asia.

[kamui]

At the moment I see a bleak future for Thailand.

- The current government is maybe even more corrupt than the previous governments.

- After reading the recent news it seems that most of the political class is absolutely corrupt and has no interest in developing the country. Probably it doesn't matter who and which party is leading the country.

- There is no interest in improving the education. As JJ said, Thailand will be soon way behind in Asia.

- Therefore the industry will fall behind as well

- Tourism is going down, but it will recover. The question is if Thailand is really able to double the number of tourists. If not, the investment in the new airport will be a desaster, but of course some people will have much more money in their pockets. Also overdevelopment will destroy many unspoiled places, I wonder if the tourists will stick to Thailand then. And I wonder how long Chiang Mail will stay on the "best city" ranking.

- Thailand was/is very strong with agriculture, but the question is, if Thailand will be able to stay on it's currently level. This years water problem will become much more severe in the upcoming years (especially at the Mekong). And for example the shrimp industry is destroying the Mangrove woods. When the woods are gone the shrimps will be gone as well but many coast lines will look like a wasteland afterwards.