gobbledonk Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 I made the assertion about 2 years ago that China was the next economic Superpower, and was roundly pooh-poohed by several board members who gave me some very good reasons as to why that wouldnt happen in our lifetimes. Perhaps they can now tell me why a correction in a market which would have been considered a financial backwater 10 years ago would have such potentially dire consequences for the rest of us ? Ultimately, it doesnt matter what we say. There is a 25-year old guy driving around Shanghai in a Ferrari right now, and he hasnt got time to read NP. He has a wave to ride, and thoughts of it being a dumper are a long way from his mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted March 8, 2007 Report Share Posted March 8, 2007 I made the assertion about 2 years ago that China was the next economic Superpower, and was roundly pooh-poohed by several board members who gave me some very good reasons as to why that wouldnt happen in our lifetimes. Perhaps they can now tell me why a correction in a market which would have been considered a financial backwater 10 years ago would have such potentially dire consequences for the rest of us ? Ultimately, it doesnt matter what we say. There is a 25-year old guy driving around Shanghai in a Ferrari right now, and he hasnt got time to read NP. He has a wave to ride, and thoughts of it being a dumper are a long way from his mind. I I am undoubtedly one of those that thoroughly pooh-poohed you. I have vague recollection of that thread but canâ??t be assed to find it. There is a big difference between be able to cause a financial a panic due to typical Chinese gambling instincts (which this was) and being a economic superpower. Note in todayâ??s Post small article (not on web site) where it is noted that over 400,000 children die in China due to lack of medical attention. Sound like a superpower to you? Add that to the fact that less then 10% of population is actually getting anything out the current so-called economic boom, and probably 80% of those are migrant workers in semi-slave conditions , along with the fact that the banking industry is one big fraud, and due to artificial weak currency making Chinese goods appear much cheaper then they actually are, you have receipt for disaster that will make â??97 insignificant in comparison. Keep ion mind that a run on the Thai baht is what brought that about, is Thailand an economic superpower? The sooner the rest of world bits the bullet the better we all we be. Your hero in the Ferrari is a fraud and it will catch up to him in spades. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elef Posted March 8, 2007 Report Share Posted March 8, 2007 It takes around 20 years before the chinese economy is bigger than the american. Maybe 10 years more and the russian is #2, 10 years more again and India is #3 (or #2). The investments in China are enormous and probably the motor of the world economy today. That's the reason that a rumour in China can cause panic around the world. If you add an american government interested in a lower dollar to make export easier and import (especially oil) more expensive you get the 2 major factors in world economy now - IMO of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted March 8, 2007 Report Share Posted March 8, 2007 You shouldn't let your dislike of the Chinese political system blind you to reality. A huge industrious population. Sure there are winners and losers there but a revolution isn't in the cards and an economic meltdown there will effect every economy in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted March 9, 2007 Report Share Posted March 9, 2007 Iâ??m not blind to reality, as a matter of fact, I probably have a better grasp of it then most having lived and worked there for 2 years. The whole economy is based on exploitation of cheap labor and quick, immediate profit. So you dismiss the 400,000 dead children as â??losersâ? and your 25-year old guy driving around Shanghai in a Ferrari (bought because he failed to pay his workers) as a â??winnerâ?� Did you read the article in last weeks Time magazine on the coal mining industry? Officially, over 5,000 killed a year; some unofficial estimates place it at closer to 20,000. Cheap coal is the fuel for the economy but how long will the workers put up with it? Semi-slave conditions in the factories. A construction industry with a horrific safety record and even worse quality control. A central government that is losing control as it tries to rein in the local administrators that are only interested in quick profit. An increasingly dissatisfied population that is getting bolder and bolder in its reactions, something that is not widely reported in the international media. I watched as contractors took our money and passed it around and almost nothing filtered down to the workers. Despite contractors being paid in advance, workers often went months without getting anything while being housed in the most deplorable conditions, eating old rice and being made to work 12 hour days, 7 days a week on a promise to be paid some day. If they complained, the local government revoked their work permits and banned them from the zone. People visit Beijing, Shanghai, or Shenzhen and all they see are prosperous industrious people with well kept streets and modern buildings. What they donâ??t realize is there are gates to all the so called â??economic zonesâ? where only people that have permits are allowed to enter. Over 90% of the population is kept out and live in abject poverty. I donâ??t think there will be a revolution either; I think it will descend into anarchy and indeed the effects will be felt world wide. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted March 9, 2007 Report Share Posted March 9, 2007 "What they donâ??t realize is there are gates to all the so called â??economic zonesâ? where only people that have permits are allowed to enter. Over 90% of the population is kept out and live in abject poverty." It was like that under the Han and the Ming and the Manchu. You're predicting another 'Warring States' Period. Maybe they need another Mao....one who drives a Ferrari. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 9, 2007 Report Share Posted March 9, 2007 Thaihome: "deplorable conditions, eating old rice and being made to work 12 hour days, 7 days a week on a promise to be paid some day" Sounds like a bargirl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobbledonk Posted March 18, 2007 Report Share Posted March 18, 2007 Note in todayâ??s Post small article (not on web site) where it is noted that over 400,000 children die in China due to lack of medical attention. Sound like a superpower to you? Yes - it sounds a great deal like the Soviet Union, circa 1980, when we still lived in fear of them. Luckily, massive inequities and exploitation dont exist on the street in the 'Free World' .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denarius Posted March 18, 2007 Report Share Posted March 18, 2007 Does exploiting more than 6 million Mexicans who are in the country illegally mean that you are not a superpower? Or does exploiting people make you a superpower? There are many means of exploitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Hippie Posted March 18, 2007 Report Share Posted March 18, 2007 The exploitation of illegals here in the USA is part of the reason to stop it. As for kids dying in China (the favorite place to point a finger along with the usa, depending on the argument) I have read that the USA has a very high infant mortality rate...maybe the highest of any developed country...and never mind the kids with no medical coverage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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