Monks On The Move

[chuckwoww]

The plan is probably to get the generals fighting each other. But you're right, the only people thinking further ahead are the people who will be directly affected by chaos....China, India and Thailand.

[YimSiam]

Yugoslavia doesn't seem too bad an analogy - Burma's a bunch of diverse peoples who have enjoyed various degrees of autonomy (or slavery, I suppose) for centuries, then they all get roped into the Union, thanks to the end of the colonial period. When Burma became independent there was a joke that it was the Union of Rangoon, since the city itself was the only territory actually under control of the government - the rest was contested or in the hands of insurgents. Over the years, the generals have cobbled shaky peace arrangements with almost all the armed groups -- the question is, would a democratic government have done better at building lasting understanding, or would it have just all gone to hell? I doubt the NLD has what it takes to run the country now, so better not dump it on them anytime soon.

 

Wonder if the only way out is for the generals to fight among themselves someday, and then have a genuinely reform-minded general (a Gorbachev type) put in place a realistic map for transfer of power to civilians, with all nationalities at the table? It's certainly not going to come crashing down as a result of sanctions...

[kamui]

Yugoslavia doesn't seem too bad an analogy -

Agreed, there was a civil war which was very ugly. Now we have separate countries and some of them are doing very well and are flourishing.

 

 

[Torneyboy]

You may be right ...

[bust]

The Karen have been the only ethnic group to maintain there struggle for autonomy. Should there be democracy in Burma the only problem I see would be a bloody battle between the KNU and the DKBO. The DKBO split off from the KNU for religious reasons. Most Karen are Buddhist, but the ruling hierarchy of the KNU was entirely Christian. When the DKBO split from the KNU, the ruling SPDC, immediately took the opportunity to form an alliance with the DKBO. At present the DKBO, and their military wing, the DKBA, are fully funded by the SPDC. DKBA troops are essentially an SPDC militia, and have conducted brutal campaigns against both the KNU and innocent Karen villagers in Burma and Thailand. Although the DKBA is guilty of numerous atrocities, they cannot be defined as an independent terrorist group. Rather, the DKBA enjoy widespread support from the ruling junta, one example of the oppression and terror that the SPDC has exhibited throughout their rule. Add to that the fact that the country is so heavily mined, regardless of when the Burmese people find democracy, the suffering will continue for many years to come.

[Torneyboy]

All a very sad mess

[kamui]

Thailand's support for the Junta

 

The junta's enablers: Thailand, India, China

The junta's enablers: Thailand, India, China

 

GEOFFREY YORK

 

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

October 6, 2007 at 1:24 AM EDT

 

MAE SOT, THAILAND â?? The small band of protesters had just begun to pray for peace when the soldiers attacked.

 

Charging into the crowd, the soldiers grabbed a stack of protest leaflets and flung them to the ground. Then the undercover agents swung into action, arresting the protest leaders and bundling them into a prison van, under the menacing presence of an armoured jeep with a machine-gun mounted on top.

 

This heavy-handed assault on Myanmar activists was launched not in Myanmar itself, but just across the border, in Thailand.

 

While the world was mesmerized by televised images of soldiers attacking peaceful protesters in Rangoon, the military regime in neighbouring Thailand was in the midst of its own crackdown on protesters from Myanmar, without any attention from the outside world.

 

The harsh reaction in Thailand is one of the keys to understanding why Myanmar's military junta was able to crush the protests by the red-robed monks who were marching for democracy last month.

 

Exiles from Myanmar, also known as Burma, have made three attempts to hold protests in support of the monks in Mae Sot, a Thai border town, over the past 10 days. Each attempt was tightly controlled or suppressed by Thai security and military forces. [color:red]Dozens of protesters were detained and deported to Myanmar, facing an even worse fate if caught.[/color]

 

By cracking down on its own Myanmar protesters, Thailand is seeking to ensure a smooth relationship with the neighbouring junta. That smooth relationship is worth billions of dollars in trade and investment opportunities for Thai businesses and the Thai government.

 

Thailand's economic relationship with Myanmar has been vital in propping up the military junta. Thailand, China and India, the three most important states on Myanmar's borders, have provided the economic lifeline that keeps the junta afloat, allowing it to defy the sanctions imposed by Western governments.

 

All three of these countries expressed concern about the bloody suppression of the peaceful protests in Rangoon last week. But none of the three front-line states has taken any concrete steps to punish the regime for killing and arresting the monks and other protesters.

...

 

Thailand, which rivals China as the biggest foreign investor in Myanmar, has officially criticized the junta for its attacks on the monks. But at the same time it depends heavily on Myanmar for the natural gas that fuels the Thai economy. About 20 per cent of Thailand's electricity is generated by natural gas from Myanmar. [color:red]The junta collects more than $2-billion annually from Thailand for these natural gas exports, the single biggest source of revenue for the junta.[/color]

 

Thailand is also building hydro dams in Myanmar, offering further billions to the regime and increasing Thailand's reliance on the Myanmar relationship. And Thai traders are enjoying a booming business in importing rubies and other gems from Myanmar, while selling a vast range of consumer goods there.

 

Despite its official statements of concern about the military crackdown, Thailand often sounds sympathetic to the junta. Thailand's military leaders, who seized power in Bangkok in a coup last year, have hinted that Myanmar's junta was unfairly provoked by the protesting monks. Its business leaders have expressed concern that the protests could lead to border closures, hurting Thai traders. And the government has talked of the need for â??peace and stabilityâ? in Myanmar, rather than democracy or human rights.

...

 

In the face of these powerful links, it can be almost impossible for ordinary Myanmar exiles to dissent. In the border town of Mae Sot, about 100 exiles gathered outside a United Nations office last Sunday to voice their support for the monks in Rangoon â?? but they were met by 10 soldiers, three police vehicles, an armoured jeep, a police prison van and a contingent of police officers and undercover security agents.

 

After the soldiers charged into the crowd and threw away the protest leaflets, the security agents arrested five protesters. â??You are troublemakers, stirring up the Burmese workers in Thailand,â? one security agent told a protester as he held him in custody in a police prison bus.

 

The agents did not bother to identify themselves. â??We had no idea who had arrested us,â? said Joe, a 25-year-old migrant worker from Myanmar, one of the five men arrested. â??I was very worried. I had no idea what would happen to us.â?Â

 

After a night in a police cell, Joe and the other protesters were deported across the border to Myanmar, which could have been highly dangerous for them. â??Luckily there weren't many people who noticed us,â? he said. â??We managed to cross back to Thailand with a group of people.â?Â

 

Three days earlier, a group of 200 exiles tried to hold a candle-lighting ceremony at the border on the Moei River, within sight of Myanmar, to honour the monks who were killed in Rangoon. But they were confronted by dozens of soldiers and policemen who arrested 30 of the protesters and deported them to Myanmar.

 

Finally, on Tuesday this week, the exiles were able to hold a ceremony at a Buddhist monastery in the border town, without any arrests. But they were watched closely by police, soldiers and undercover agents. Local authorities warned the monastery to limit the ceremony to 20 minutes, with no political slogans, no posters, no signs, no leaflets, no applauding and no singing. Several monks refused to speak at the ceremony for fear that they could be identified by Myanmar agents.

 

The exiles have no doubt of the reason for the crackdown on their protests. They see the thriving trade between Mae Sot and the nearest Myanmar town, they watch the traders going back and forth, and they know the authorities want to avoid any conflict that might lead to a shutdown of the bridge over the border on the Moei River.

 

â??The Thai businessmen here are very dependent on the Myanmar market,â? said Kamma Kuthala, a monk of Myanmar origin who led the ceremony at the monastery this week.

 

â??If Myanmar got angry at Thailand and closed the border even for a day, it would hurt them a lot. And the authorities here are concerned only about profits and benefits.â?Â

 

globeandmail.com

[Flashermac]

 

The Thai Army could probably kick the shite out of the Burmese Army, if it came to that. But it won't. Too many Thai generals making money off the present situation.

 

 

 

[kamui]

The Thai Army could probably kick the shite out of the Burmese Army, if it came to that. But it won't. Too many Thai generals making money off the present situation.

 

 

It would not surprise me, if they would train the Burmese Army...

During the Cold War the West did the same with several dictatorships, why shouldn't Thai military do the same or more?

 

[bust]

Nah the Australian Defence Force does that