Torneyboy Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 Looks like dragging on ...sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 On the contrary I understand the situation as much as anyone, however, what the PAD are calling for is unrealistic. If the Government did resign then we are back to square, i.e. military coups, new elections etc. Democracy isnt perfect and you cannot please all the people all the time. Please consider that the PAD haven't even given the government a chance to prove themselves (well Somchai anyhow), IMHO this is more to do with removing Somchai and his links to Thaksin from power - in which case its a personal issue and certinaly not a cause for civic unrest. All politicians are corrupt, it doesn't matter which countries government you care to examine, however the PAD are asking for something that is unrealistic and by taking the action they have they face alienating the populace, destroying the image of Thailand globally and taking the country back 5 years. You also have to remember the PAD are not unconnected in the higher echeloens there are plenty of people in the opposing parties and in the military who have been supporting them from a distance all along and would be happy for them to suceed.. I see four possible outcomes 1) Somchai resigns - PAD not happy as the current government will remain in power. 2) The military intervene - PAD happy but this does nothing for Thailand, a case of 1 step forward 3 steps back. 3) Somchai calls in the police - probably a bad move as there's no guarntee that they will support thus him undermining his position. Even if they do then there is guaranteed bloodshed. 4) [edited - Mod3] - could ease the tension but unlikely to happen Ultimately Somchai is playing from a very weak hand and my personal opinion is that he should step down. At least that would go someway to appease the PAD. The four options seem interesting...however, another is that the status quo continues with a stand-off. Somchai wont go as he's trying to preside over the return of the prodigal son AKA Mr T, I'm sure he'll be rewarded handsomely for his efforts, as will all the faithful. Now they've got the power and the means to what they want, there's much to lose! It is clear he has zero integrity and certainly isn't considering the best interests of the country. At present this stand-off seems assured. Somchai wont go, elections wont be called. I presume he thinks the PAD movement will fade as public anger will force it to back down. He does seem to be playing the waiting game. Waiting to change the constitution so Mr T is no longer a criminal on the run from the law.... There's lots of attempts at trying to force the issue at present. The PAD have upped the ante with their blockades. The red shirts have increased their attacks. Mr T is making public proclamations and trying to direct things, even asking for a pardon! Lots of factions trying to force the issue, create a crisis so that someone has to buckle/cave in. Offer plausible ways out, but no one is really budging or accepting the offers. I guess if things get more violent the army will have its hand forced too and will need to restore order via a clampdown or coup. Best case, Somchai dissolves parliament, elections are called. The people give a mandate to those elected....but then Mr T would be left out in the cold....and too many people have a huge interest in his return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobbledonk Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 Go to KL, Cav : drop in to the Beach Club, go right as soon as you get past the bouncers (and girls grabbing your coconuts..) and head to the tiny 'Gilligan's Island' bar at the back. A tall, very dark Filipina will approach and ask for you to buy her a drink. She only looks like a ladyboy until you start talking to her. Have that drink, then take her back to your hotel. Your phone will ring about 30 seconds after you get in the cab, and a man's voice will tell you that your date intends to drug you and take your wallet/passport. Don't believe him - its all part of the experience - just strap in and hang on for the ride .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 "Best case, Somchai dissolves parliament, elections are called. The people give a mandate to those elected" very well faustian, but how likely is this & what will be able to trigger it? blocking soi cowboy or rachada soi4 or even phuket or chaing mai airports (they managed phuket in the past already) or some other weird stuff like switching off all AIS cell towers or servers??? how about worst case? the police effect the court order with force (shooting PAD) & the military shots the police & in the end Somchai stays on woving to restore peace to the best of his ability LOL? or is it rather PAD vs. UDD with 3 digit losses in a extended showdown/bloodbath? again with government stubbornly staying on? I guess it could happen how likely are those? status quo is perhaps the most likely, but it damn well requires a lot of patience & ignorance these days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 by the way most pressing issue when will air traffic resume - any bets? 0-24h? 1-2 days? 2-7 days? weeks/months?!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentors Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 by the way most pressing issue when will air traffic resume - any bets?0-24h? 1-2 days? 2-7 days? weeks/months?!!!! 2-7 days, [edited - Mod3]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 rather safe bet, but I'm sure others are betting on sooner than that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 I'd say not long, how can this blockade be allowed to continue? But you never know. TIT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobbledonk Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 I've only ever read about the tension between the Thai Police and their senior counterparts in the Army - how likely is it that they would actually order their subordinates to start shooting at one another in 2008/09 ? Real South American-style political circus if that comes to pass. Might as well leave the airports in lockdown, and ask the last foreigner to leave Thailand if he would kindly turn out the lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTO Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 [sorry, removed - KS] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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