PAD closes Suvarnabhumi

[Torneyboy]

I'd say not long, how can this blockade be allowed to continue? But you never know. TIT!

 

 

And ..how/why was it allowed to happen at all...

[CTO]

News Flash - Majority of Thais would not care if another Farang never came to this country again. Those who PLANNED for this to happen just don't care.

[cavanami]

They will care when the farangs stop arriving in LOS and the loss of income for the Thais starts to snowball!

Saw something like this in the PI when they closed Clark Airforc Bsse, same in Germany when the US shutdown some Army bases there.

 

All of a sudden the Thais will care a lot, IMO!

[Bangkoktraveler]

I got a feeling if the prime minister does not cave-in and resign and the police assult the airport, PAD will be martyred by suicide. If that happens, it will take Thailand a long time to get over it.

[chelseafan]

OOh has Somchai played his ace in the hole, firstly he is making a decisive decision at last and secondly he is looking to call in the airforce and naval forces (dont see much water around the airport, hey ho) bypassing the army.

 

That will piss off the army high command - coup imminent!

 

[chelseafan]

On the contrary I understand the situation as much as anyone' date=' however, what the PAD are calling for is unrealistic. If the Government did resign then we are back to square, i.e. military coups, new elections etc. Democracy isnt perfect and you cannot please all the people all the time. Please consider that the PAD haven't even given the government a chance to prove themselves (well Somchai anyhow), IMHO this is more to do with removing Somchai and his links to Thaksin from power - in which case its a personal issue and certinaly not a cause for civic unrest.

All politicians are corrupt, it doesn't matter which countries government you care to examine, however the PAD are asking for something that is unrealistic and by taking the action they have they face alienating the populace, destroying the image of Thailand globally and taking the country back 5 years.

 

You also have to remember the PAD are not unconnected in the higher echeloens there are plenty of people in the opposing parties and in the military who have been supporting them from a distance all along and would be happy for them to suceed..

 

I see four possible outcomes

 

1) Somchai resigns - PAD not happy as the current government will remain in power.

 

2) The military intervene - PAD happy but this does nothing for Thailand, a case of 1 step forward 3 steps back.

 

3) Somchai calls in the police - probably a bad move as there's no guarntee that they will support thus him undermining his position. Even if they do then there is guaranteed bloodshed.

 

4) [ edited - Mod3 '] - could ease the tension but unlikely to happen

 

Ultimately Somchai is playing from a very weak hand and my personal opinion is that he should step down. At least that would go someway to appease the PAD.

 

The four options seem interesting...however, another is that the status quo continues with a stand-off. Somchai wont go as he's trying to preside over the return of the prodigal son AKA Mr T, I'm sure he'll be rewarded handsomely for his efforts, as will all the faithful. Now they've got the power and the means to what they want, there's much to lose! It is clear he has zero integrity and certainly isn't considering the best interests of the country.

 

At present this stand-off seems assured. Somchai wont go, elections wont be called. I presume he thinks the PAD movement will fade as public anger will force it to back down. He does seem to be playing the waiting game.

 

Waiting to change the constitution so Mr T is no longer a criminal on the run from the law....

 

There's lots of attempts at trying to force the issue at present. The PAD have upped the ante with their blockades. The red shirts have increased their attacks. Mr T is making public proclamations and trying to direct things, even asking for a pardon!

 

Lots of factions trying to force the issue, create a crisis so that someone has to buckle/cave in. Offer plausible ways out, but no one is really budging or accepting the offers.

 

I guess if things get more violent the army will have its hand forced too and will need to restore order via a clampdown or coup.

 

Best case, Somchai dissolves parliament, elections are called. The people give a mandate to those elected....but then Mr T would be left out in the cold....and too many people have a huge interest in his return.

 

There is the possibility of a stand-off, however I think this is unlikely. Whilst the PAD were confined to central Bangkok, Somchai could probably afford to sit it out, however now the PAD have raised the stakes by taking both airports something has to give and quickly.

 

I am not that interested in Thai politics although I do find the current situation worrying. All I WILL say is that under Thaksin the country was moving forward leaps and bounds. Since his removal Thailand has stagnated - Yes, Thaksin had his faults although if you remember the original reasons for his removal to what he was actually charged with (in a Kandgeroo court!) it would seem that the military over-reacted - something I don't think they want to do again for fear of losing credibility amongst the populace.

 

It seems to me Thai's operate in two ways, they either appease as much as possible or just spontaneously combust leading to dreaful consequences.

 

Somchai dissolving parliament would IMHO achieve nothing, everyone loses. A democratically elected governement, despite its faults has to be allowed to prosper or be voted out at the next election.

Thailand wants overnight democracy, this just doesnt happen, it also has too many influential people trying to get a chunk of the pie.

 

[CTO]

Trouble is Cav it has to hurt a lot before they realize "Oh shit - those annoying white fuckers brought money to the table - FARK - I never realized that!"