HeartThais Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 I think if you are retired in Thailand and living off Euro, now would be a good time to get into dollars or baht. I am increasingly concerned about the news coming from Europe. Portugal's credit was downgraded last week (along with Spain and Greece). A coalition of eastern and central european banks are crying for help but won't get any. I see growing disparity between Germany and the rest of the EU which is not healthy. I also see an "every man for himself" attitude in the EU that isn't helping. I believe the reason the Euro hasn't fallen as much as the pound is because the ECB is handcuffed. Unlike the Fed and the BoE, the ECB's credit risk isn't backed by the faith of a tax collecting body. Should the ECB go bankrupt, it isn't clear if and when it would get recapitalized and by whom. I think this is the main reason the ECB has been more cautious with lowering rates because once it gets to zero, it can't enter easily into the kind of "quantitative easing" that the US and UK have engaged. The US buys Freddie and Fannie paper. What does the ECB buy? Italian paper? German paper? In what proportions? After the purchase, who guarantees the increased credit risk of the ECB? These natural restrictions impose a certain discipline on the ECB that has supported the Euro. But if things turn bad, it also means the ECB is powerless or has to make dramatic changes to the way it operates. But if bad news strikes, I don't think the ECB will be nimble enough to react before there is a mad dash to the exits. The silver lining is that the worst of the recession may be behind us. Maybe banks in Hungary, Ukraine and Poland won't collapse. Maybe the recessions in Spain, Italy, Ireland won't be so bad. Then you will curse me because the Euro will go back to beating the crap out of the dollar and other currencies. But what I read makes me feel like things are getting worse not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelgianBoy Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 The silver lining is that the worst of the recession may be behind us. Why is that ? Too many signs indicate that more is still to come..... Then you will curse me because the Euro will go back to beating the crap out of the dollar and other currencies. As an exporter (what the EU mostly is) I hope that will not be the case. But what I read makes me feel like things are getting worse not better. Exactly. we are not over the worst yet. Just my own point of view. BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiLeakHunt Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 The silver lining is that the worst of the recession may be behind us. Spoke to a bloke who works in banking, apparently there's worse to come. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentors Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 and the Media's helping that it becomes more worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalo_bill Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 Spoke to a bloke who works in banking, apparently there's worse to come. Cheers In case you speak to him again : if he is in fortune-telling he should have become multi billionaire within the last 12 months and not be working at the bank any more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalo_bill Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 Sir , if you are trying to escape from the financial armageddon shifting your cash into gold or pineapple or Panama government bonds would not save you from loosing it because there would be no buyers left to buy any of your assets . If you think it goes down the drain the only thing left is property because it is undestroyable and will recover . To survive til then buy a deep freezer , loads condoms , Singha and a wooden shed in Udon . All theories of analysts are crap , if you don't believe it read the Financial Times from a year ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 bubi, sanest advice I ever read on financials hope my 'investment' in 'nakhon somewhere not so upcountry' slightly more 'comfortable than 'shed' will be able to ride me through as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavanami Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 Cash is King! Even the broken down USD or Euro or UK Pound...it still has value! Property...who will buy it? Yes it has value, but who will buy it and when they buy it they will pay in currency...so what's the point?? Diversify. Some cash, some xxxx, for me, the best option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kamui Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 CDiversify. Some cash, some xxxx, for me, the best option. "xxxx"? A vintage porn movie collection? :smirk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavanami Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Sure!!! or some stocks, bonds, gold, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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