UDD now a 'red tiger' Thaksin can no longer ride

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

7 May 2010

 

 

Opinion by Pavin Chachavalpongpun

 

 

 

A big question in Thailand, probably after the protesters finally depart from Ratchaprasong and a new general election is held, might well be what the relationship between the red-shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and former prime minister-cum-fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra will be.

 

To refresh one's memory, the UDD came into being as a swift response to the military coup of Sept 19, 2006. Members of the UDD sharply criticised the Bangkok elite for alienating Thaksin, thus seemingly paving the way for the military to oust his elected government.

 

Today, many who support the movement still perceive Thaksin as some sort of a democratic icon and a saviour of the poor.

 

Some political observers argued that the latest wave of the red shirt demonstrations was instigated to retaliate against the Bangkok elite for confiscating Thaksin's assets. From this viewpoint, the red shirt movement and Thaksin are two inseparable entities. While Thaksin launched his attack against the elite from his bases overseas, the reds took to the streets of Bangkok, putting intense pressure on the government of PM Abhisit Vejjajiva.

 

But like anything else in Thailand, domestic politics appears to be constantly shifting. Since the violent confrontations between the security forces and red-shirted demonstrators on April 10, the relationship between the UDD and Thaksin has appeared to move on beyond anyone's expectations.

 

On many occasions, the red shirt leaders seemed to go out of their way to emphasise their distancing the movement from Thaksin. Nattawut Saikua, for example, noted candidly that Thaksin was but one of the supporters of the red shirt movement. It is understood that this was done primarily to boost its credibility and legitimacy as a force for democracy and not the interests of one man.

 

Indeed, I would argue that there is some love lost between Thaksin and the red shirts. The distancing game is mutual. Thaksin, too, has tended to veer further away from the UDD, at least in public. As one scholar who writes under the pseudonym Chang Noi recently noted: "Thaksin might not want to ride this 'tiger' now he knows how big and fierce it is."

 

Yes, there is no doubt the "red tiger" has found the time and place to unleash its raw power. This could represent one of the main reasons behind the repositioning and rearranging of the relationship between the red shirts and Thaksin.

 

[color:red]The deadly clashes in Bangkok and the fact that Thaksin was "missing in action" during the whole critical period could signify that the former premier has completely lost control of the red shirts' core leaders.[/color]

 

This line of argument may have served to vindicate Thaksin from the accusation made by the Bangkok elite of him being the chief operator behind the fatal unrest.

 

There are now many shades of "red" within the UDD. While the UDD's non-violent faction may still enshrine Thaksin as a unifying force, the hardliners have opted for more radical measures. There is no knowing if Thaksin remains in control of all these different factions, whether they acted out of some sort of a centralised plan or at their own will, with or without Thaksin's blessing.

 

Thaksin could not stress enough his non-involvement in the operation of the so-called "men in black" whom the government has accused of spraying bullets at both soldiers and demonstrators. He continued to deny being associated with the "terrorists" claimed to be embedding themselves within the UDD.

 

Meanwhile, it was too convenient for the Bangkok elite to reconstruct Thaksin as a part of the extreme elements of the UDD. Thaksin probably realised their trick. That is why he has sought to keep a low profile in the aftermath of the violence, including after the red shirts' raid of Chulalongkorn Hospital, which received much denunciation from the Thai people as well as foreign governments.

 

There are other reasons too that elucidate why relations between Thaksin and the UDD have gradually turned frigid, at least as seen in the public arena. Increasingly, the differences in the objective of Thaksin and the UDD are becoming clear. They can be seen as being contradictory with each other, even. Evidently through his many tweets and phone-ins, Thaksin has been infuriated by the fact that his assets were taken away at the order of the Supreme Court which, he claimed, was highly politicised. It is then logical that Thaksin's battle against the Bangkok elite is perhaps about getting his money back.

 

[color:red]Thaksin probably realises that he is now damaged goods. The chances of him returning to power are slim. It is thus money, not political power, that ranks high in the mind of the billionaire.[/color]

 

Meanwhile, the red shirts have put forward their own agenda of championing democracy. They have claimed to work on behalf of the poor in far-flung villages. They have pledged to eliminate social injustice and double standards. These objectives are impressive.

 

Beneath this impression, however, lies a seemingly darker side of the UDD. Despite its repeated denials, the UDD has allowed some anti-monarchist elements within its ranks to emerge. Publications on the lom chao (overthrowing the monarchy) movement are now available in bookstores. Everyone recognises the danger in politicising the revered institution, so does Thaksin.

 

In his latest interviews with foreign reporters, Thaksin, once again, reproached his enemies for playing this dangerous card. He said that all these years he has remained loyal to His Majesty the King. He also claimed that he had nothing to do with any attempt toward establishing a "Thai republic". Declaring war with the Bangkok elite has already proven to be an uphill task for Thaksin. A step further toward challenging the epitome of the Thai political structure, the monarchy, would have been an unimaginable exercise.

 

Another reason that can explain why Thaksin seems to be detaching himself from the UDD is possibly the serious responses to the Thai crisis from the international community. While some Western governments may have blamed Mr Abhisit for failing to control the situation and to provide security to Bangkok residents and for foot-dragging in regard to the dissolution of the House of Representatives, they saw the red-shirted warriors as the real culprits in the current turmoil. The US government, in particular, released a statement denouncing the "unacceptable violence (on April 10) by the red-shirted protesters".

 

Since the coup, Thaksin has been ferociously competing with the elite in Bangkok for sympathy from Thailand's allies overseas.

 

Now that Thaksin is a fugitive from Thai law, he has found himself having fewer friends on the international stage. The UAE could kick him out any time. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has recently changed from his earlier friendly position. To be seen as overtly supporting the violent acts of the red shirts could further shrink Thaksin's already limited global sanctuaries.

 

[color:red]The red-shirted UDD has come so far, probably very far, from what Thaksin originally had in mind. If the UDD leaders truly campaign for social equality and the ridding of the patronage system, then Thaksin might not be the man they want to look up to. After all, Thaksin should be partly held responsible for the widening economic and societal gap in Thailand. He showed the Thais how to exploit such a gap while enriching himself. The red tiger is now let loose and from what can be seen, Thaksin is no longer on its back.[/color]

 

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Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a Fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

 

 

 

Rink

 

 

[Pom Michael]

Maybe Thaksin's money ran out or he just stopped paying?

[Flashermac]

"Bangkok elite" apparently means anyone with a monthly income of over 10,000 baht.

 

 

[Julian2]

No,they're the one's who's kids pass the exams when you can't actually remember them sitting for them...

[Faustian]

The UDD needs to ditch the PT links and their current ex-TRT/PPP/PT leadership (Jatuporn being a PT MP) and of course Thaksin and then maybe it can be a real movement. At present, despite all the hype, it is still a vehicle to enable the return of Thaksin's Thailand, with all that entails. The leaders are nothing more than his mates, looking forward to payday.

[Flashermac]

No,they're the one's who's kids pass the exams when you can't actually remember them sitting for them...

 

Or get caught during the exam with cheat notes in their pocket like Pingpangpong and don't get punished?

 

p.s. It is an open secret that Chulalongkorn University holds seat open for the children of prominent politicians and others, who don't have to pass the competitive exams. That is how Takky's daughter got in. But these "elite" are few in number, hardly as many as the redniks claim.

 

 

[LizardKing]

I thought they turned her down. One of the kids got knocked back from some Uni.

[LizardKing]

The UDD needs to ditch the PT links and their current ex-TRT/PPP/PT leadership (Jatuporn being a PT MP) and of course Thaksin and then maybe it can be a real movement. At present, despite all the hype, it is still a vehicle to enable the return of Thaksin's Thailand, with all that entails. The leaders are nothing more than his mates, looking forward to payday.

Amen brother Faustian!

[Nervous God]

Interestingly i've begun to hear some negative thaksin comments, to be fair couched in terms, he was the best of poor offerings. I do believe the genie he unleashed is begining to mature. People suggesting thoughts or policy here is now becoming interesting. At least in my home. This i think is good. They have a strong independance where i live, expressing it now is good for thailand and democracy.

[Flashermac]

I thought they turned her down. One of the kids got knocked back from some Uni.

 

One of his gals got into Chula with a score of about 85% on the nationwide university entrance exam, even though it usually takes up around 98% for Chula (since so many want to go there). I remember a fuss about that.

 

His son got into the engineering faculty at Thammasat but quit after a year, saying he didn't like it. A gal who was there at the same time told me he was retired after one year for low grades.