Coss

My comments, inline in green Is 'Teflon Thailand' finally losing its sheen? by Apilaporn VECHAKIJ BANGKOK, May 16, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's once-vibrant economy is buckling under the strain of months of political turmoil that has paralysed government policy, scared off tourists and spooked foreign investors, analysts warn. Long hailed as "Teflon Thailand" for its enviable record of economic resilience in the face of political upheaval, the fallout from a six-month crisis that has left 28 people dead and hundreds wounded is mounting. Official statistics due for release on Monday are expected to show that the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014 from the previous quarter, and experts fear the poor performance will drag on until the deadlock is resolved. "When there is no government, people lack confidence to spend and invest because they fear constant political chaos," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. "Also foreigners will not dare to travel to Thailand." TAT will as usual report projected massive increases in Tourism Thanavath said there was a high risk that the economy would shrink in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2014. "It is possible that we will have neither a government nor prime minister throughout this year," he warned. - Rudderless ship - Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy has not had a fully functioning parliament or government since December, bringing major infrastructure projects to a halt and disrupting wider state spending. Consumer confidence is at the lowest level in 12 years while foreign tourist arrivals have slumped and foreign investors are watching the saga unfold nervously. International tourist arrivals were down by roughly eight and nine percent in February and March respectively from a year earlier, according to government figures, but have since shown signs of stabilising. A grenade and gun attack on anti-government protesters in Bangkok on Thursday that left three people dead has added to fears that the unrest could spiral, with the coup-prone army warning that it might have to intervene to quell the violence. Grenade and gun attacks are seemingly tolerated in Thailand, little if any effective action seems to be taken subsequent to any attack. Government supporters have warned of possible civil war if demonstrators achieve their goal of appointing an unelected premier following the recent removal of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office in a controversial court ruling. A clear indication that there are significant numbers of people who, on both sides of the argument, are prepared to ignore the rule of law. Poll officials say a planned July 20 general election is now in jeopardy because of the risk of a repeat of the chaos seen in February when opposition demonstrators blocked voting. Thailand's economic growth already slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2013, to just 0.6 percent year-on-year, from 2.7 percent in the previous quarter, according to official figures. In March the Thai central bank reduced its official interest rate to the lowest level in three years to boost the stumbling economy. The same month the Bank of Thailand cut its growth forecast for 2014 to 2.7 percent, after a 2.9 percent expansion in 2013. - Stuck in the middle - Fitch Ratings has warned that Thailand's "'BBB+" sovereign credit rating could be under threat if the deadlock continues through the second half of this year. "Failure to establish a functioning government by mid-year would have a major impact on medium-term capital investment, consumer confidence and fiscal planning," it warned in a statement. The crisis is delaying Thailand's escape from the low-investment "middle income trap" in which it has languished since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Fitch said. Eight years of political turmoil, along with the destruction wrought by devastating 2011 floods, have raised fears that long-term investors such as Japanese carmakers could stop new investment, or even move production to other, more stable countries. Apocryphal information indicates that this process is well underway, understandably the Thai press has ignored these stories. That would be a heavy setback for a country that has earned the nickname of the "Detroit of Southeast Asia" thanks to its status as a thriving regional auto manufacturing hub. Thai car sales plunged nearly 46 percent in the first quarter of 2014 from a year earlier because of the weaker economy and the end of government subsidies for first-time buyers, according to an industry-wide survey by Toyota. Experts say it appears unlikely there will be a functioning government in place in time to pass a 2015 budget within the next few months, delaying all non-essential state spending. This could, also delay the syphoning of money from the trough. Resulting in lack of funding for the patronage networks, possible on both sides of the argument. Without this funding, these networks may prove fragile. "It will take several months before we have a new government so by the time we have the new budget, it will be next year," said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University. "Political calm will not come easily. The country will be polarised for quite a while," he said. A very mild and understated comment. http://www.afp.com/en

I think its's to do with Buddhists being essentially fatalists. So whilst the West is obsessed with avoiding gore and carnage so we can all get into Heaven, the East is more realistic and says "see, Buddha told you so". This is the reason for the carnage on TV and the shots of criminals - G'ma won't miss it - it's entertainment and it bolsters their 'right' thinking attitudes. But then I generalise

I see, thanks.

What kind of language is Dakota?

That's OK, my distress is falling to manageable levels, but it's been a difficult night.

Most educated people I know will change their opinion at the drop of a hat, provided that there is reasonable cause to do so. Idiots on the other hand swear the earth is flat, that there is a god and that global warming is man made.

"The Army says it will use force against armed groups which use war weapons to kill innocent people" How can they, the assailants are all "Unknown". Ergo they have no names and addresses, or telephone numbers, or identities. I suppose the Army could just go out and shoot the first hundred people they don't like...

Very good

But what they are saying is "do this three times-or even once, then f**k off!"

I've seen him. He's lovely. And the girls concur.

But - I go to Nong Khai for a day or two approx every two months. Bangkok less often. But now I can only visit Thailand up to three more times before I'm refused entry. What sort of a f** king job would I have if I only neede to be in Thailand for a day or two, 6-8 times a year. Hopefully the cretins will be reasonable at the border. This last time I noticed the Generalissimo checking my passport stamps. But I guess he saw I was only there for 1-2 days each time and he let me go.

I noticed that too. And here I think we expose a vulnerability in the western feminist view. If in the course of events, the female is served first, this is OK, but if it's the male, this is somehow wrong. Ideally it should be 50/50 or at least random. So as most of my life in the west the lady was served first, me being being served first over here has a long way to go...

Any developments? The media I see have lost interest in this.

Quite right 2004 it is. As I am exercising people minds, getting one's dates wrong would be defined as a mistake, saying Takkie promised 250 cows to each family would serve as an exaggeration í ½í¸€

Well that's nice.

20 years give or take a few. He still promised them cows. And yes, when pressured to explain where he'd get the millions of cows needed, he stumbled and said "Australia?" Cunning foreign cows them...

Maybe the information will cause Mr Boko to make a mistake, move in an unwise manner

And jot to labour a point, my ex-wife's family are still waiting for their 2 cows that Takky promised 20 years ago

A tangent. I get CNN amongst others. When the docco series 'cold war' starts the whole channel is stopped and replaced by Vietnamese script. It goes back to CNN when the docco is over. So CNN is fed to Laos from VN They Censor VN is sensitive about USSR vs USA

The Tourism blokes will be predicting an huge increase in Tourism numbers, due to being unable to predict otherwise

Still a good idea, them and Mormons... And they'd be honest too...

"dupe other Thai girls into an exploitative bikini show" ​But if they'd been paid that would have been Okey Dokey, I wonder if any and if so, how many of them slept with the judges.

Mr Nostitz seems to have a knack for getting people's backs up. He's the sort, police arrest at 4 in the morning, for giving them too much lip. I am disturbed that a member of the press (Which News Organisation does he work for?) has been molested, but not at all surprised that it's Nostitz again.

That's positively splendiferous!