iuytrede Posted February 12, 2004 Report Share Posted February 12, 2004 Gummigut 2 years ago: "It won't work". It seems like it has worked. Nowadays the streets are clogged with new pick-ups, it is hard to find an apartment where you don't hear construction noise, and Siam Discovery and Emporium are jam-packed with people looking to buy some kitsch at obscene prices, like a plastic cork screw for 5000 B. ExGF is a financial reporter and sold her Thai stocks when the SET was at 580. Her comment: "Don't you know that they are making a bubble in Thailand?" Quite apart from economic and financial indicators, I feel what is going on at places like Loft is a big spending party - and I am afraid parties don't last forever. But I am not an expert. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lazyphil Posted February 12, 2004 Report Share Posted February 12, 2004 I just came home from LOS and I'm totally amazed that nearly every car/truck is brand new or very new--I hardly saw an old wreck like you do here like my old work horse but hey at least its mine!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spirit_of_town_hall Posted February 12, 2004 Report Share Posted February 12, 2004 You hit the nail on the end. Finance is relatively easy to acquire in Thailand. STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 12, 2004 Report Share Posted February 12, 2004 the bubble chatchai choonhavan's government created took less than ten years to burst. lets see how long than one lasts... and the boys at the helm now are more or less the same ones from those days, and more or less exactly the same as under the chavalit government. the old game under a new name... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spirit_of_town_hall Posted February 13, 2004 Report Share Posted February 13, 2004 What was it that actually led the bubble to burst in 1997. If there was a defining event, the staw that broke the camels back what was it? STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gummigut Posted February 13, 2004 Report Share Posted February 13, 2004 Read my lips, "2 more years" lol. I dramatically underestimated the amount of capital the government could pump into the system without warning bells (off balance sheet accounting). Also underestimated the ability to raise money in weird ass ways. Whatever happened to the second tranche of Vayupak Fund? Was it all institutionally placed? Is it fully subscribed? Read my lips, "2-years". lol <<burp>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whosyourdaddy Posted February 13, 2004 Report Share Posted February 13, 2004 Thais have been big spenders since the mid 80s. With the highest %age of BMW and Merc in pre-1997, and one of the highest growth economies at the time. But during that time, most of the issan farmers worked 2 jobs- farming and a Bangkok job during the downtime. They worked hard to buy TVs and everything they saw on those TVs. But those times have changed. They were the first people to lose their construction jobs etc during the crash and times have been tough. You can not compare what you see in emporium to the real world. Emporium will always be full as long as Thailand has a cheap labour force. I know it sounds strange but.... As long as the upper class can exploit the lower class for 4000B a month jobs there will always be businessmen in the country making serious money and filling emporium and siam square. Since Siam square is owned by chula university a large majority of the money stays in the upper class. (dont know who ownes emporium - CP group??) Remember that thailand learnt nothing from the last bust. Their accounting system still takes 10 years before the repo man comes and takes all the bankrupt companies' assets. They still blame the bust on the IMF. Nothing learned, nothing gained. Still have the bad politics causing a potential bust. Who knows if it will bust again. All I know it that I was looking at a place for 1.5 million 2 years ago and the same place goes for 2.7 now. They let my wife co-sign for my car despite the fact that the monthly payments were more than here monthly salary. They wont give me a credit card despite the fact that I make a very good salary but will give a cheap credit card (AEON etc) to everyone else in the country. Dont know if taxsin will survive the next election. It wont be bird flu or anything else but the lower class men striking back at him. Taking away massage parlors, killing their drug dealing friends, and now closing thier bars will make for a non-sanuk atmosphere. I have really noticed that there has been an increase in crime and people are getting scared. Before these guys were drunks and having fun. Now they are just bored and causing trouble. These votes that the TRT bought in the last election( million bhat per tambon scheme) will probably backlash againt them on this election. Just my point of view Mod feel free to change this if it goes against board policies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted February 13, 2004 Report Share Posted February 13, 2004 spirit_of_town_hall said:What was it that actually led the bubble to burst in 1997. If there was a defining event, the staw that broke the camels back what was it? STH In January 1997, Thailand's foreign exchange position was relatively healthy, ranking 8th in the world at around $40 billion US. The entire country recognized itself as one of Asia's rising stars. However, the calm surface misled what was simmering underneath. Approximately six months earlier, the real estate sector, which had been experiencing uncurtailed expansion, was in limbo, exports were displaying some troubling signs and Thailand's cumulative inflation rate was higher than that of the United States. Added to this was a speculative run on the Thai baht in November 1996. Thus, in January 1997, a small adjustment of around 15 percent to Thailand's exchange rate was thought to be necessary. The Thai government persisted and actively engaged in the defence of the Thai currency. Speculative attacks mounted and by July 2nd the Thai government gave in and proceeded with a managed float system, later seeking rescue from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Thai baht did not float, it actually sank. In June 1997, approximately 26 baht equaled one US dollar, six months after the "float" this rate was reduced to around 50 baht. By January 1998, it became clear that the monetary authority of Thailand had committed successive mismanagement, i.e., pegging the baht while keeping the capital account open, allowing the private sector to excessively borrow short-term overseas loans to finance long-term investments, doggedly defending the Thai baht by committing up to $23 billion US in forward transactions, which in many cases are used in the real estate sector. On the domestic front, the government pumped out at least 400,000 million baht to assist ailing banks and financial intermediaries, finally deciding to close 56 of these financial enterprises and seizing management control of two banks by January 1998. A much longer paper is: crisis97 IMHO what is going on now is much different, though the end effect may be similar. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 13, 2004 Report Share Posted February 13, 2004 Thank you for taking the time to post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.. Posted February 13, 2004 Report Share Posted February 13, 2004 "the real estate sector, which had been experiencing uncurtailed expansion, was in limbo," One of the biggest problem in this sector was that banks were doing loans at up to 125% of value of the property to contractors/specualtors. Using one project to fund another finally imploded (first in Korea, tho') when the sales slowed down, causing the whole mess to come tumbling down. This is why you see so many unfinished construction projects around Bangers. I understand (but no proof) that there is some of this happening again... Cheers, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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