Result general election - just facts

[Nervous_Dog]

Sorry Pattaya, while I agree with your line many dont understand Thai people's reason's for voting, I'm not a tourist here. I am by Australian standards a immigrant, hoping I get my residents card in a few years time, my family are here etc.

 

That said I also agree it's not at all lke 1933 Germany. Thai's have had BAD politicians for so long, that the money thrown at them, used unwisely I agree, is gratefully accepted by most villagers.

 

The ther parties would promise and not deliver, at least Thaksin has delivered his proomises, he gave them cash!

 

DOG

[..]

Nervous_Dog said:...least Thaksin has delivered his proomises, he gave them cash

THAKSINOMICS: The wizard of economics exposed

 

Published on February 07, 2005

 

Rather than magically turning things around, PM has ridden the crest of an export boom

 

Does Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra really wield a magic wand? Most people have been led to believe so. Over the past four years, they would not hesitate to say that ?Thaksinomics? has bolstered renewed confidence, created excitement and triggered a turnaround in the economy.

 

But the economic indicators tell a different story. Exports have emerged as the real growth story for Thailand, and Thaksinomics has been riding on the crest of the export boom.

 

?The Thaksin government could make some claims during the first two years when it created a sense of confidence for economic potential,? said Somchai Jitsuchon, a economist at the Thailand Development Research Institute.

 

?But I don?t think it could [make such a] claim in the later two years, because Thailand?s performance is not outstanding, and some countries in Asia, such as Singapore, outstrip Thailand,? he said.

 

High demand for exports, rather than government policy, has driven economic growth as it has for other countries too, he added.

 

The contribution of exports to gross domestic product has played a far more important role in boosting Thai growth than domestic demand as Thaksinomics frequently claims.

 

According to Bank of Thailand data, the contribution of exports to GDP fell back in 2002 before growing in 2003 and then surging in the third quarter of last year.

 

Thaksinomics is just benefiting from the extraordinary performance of the export sector, similar to what the Kingdom went through in the second half of the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s.

 

Imports have also surged during the Thaksinomics years, with Thaksin?s stimulus policy also creating an appetite for more foreign goods.

 

While imports fell back somewhat in 2002, they moved up the following year and then climbed dramatically in the third quarter of 2004.

 

As a result of this import surge, the net export contribution to GDP has in fact fallen ? despite the concurrently higher level of exports ? from 6.8 per cent in 2003 to 4.3 per cent in last year?s third quarter.

 

Meanwhile, private consumption has been constant since 2001 ? when Thaksin?s Thai Rak Thai Party won its landslide general election victory ? while private consumption weakened from 57.3 per cent of GDP in 2001 to 57.2 per cent in 2002. It was 56.7 per cent in 2003 and 55.5 per cent in the first nine months of 2004.

 

This illustrates that Thaksinomics, which aims to boost domestic consumption and reduce the country?s dependence on exports, does not really cast real magic. Instead, it is a policy failure that has saddled Thai household with more debt.

 

Phairoj Vongvipanond, an economics lecturer at Turakijbandit University, pointed out that the government just happened at the right time when the economy was on an up-cycle after a plunge following the crisis of 1997.

 

Before the Thaksin government took office, about 70 per cent of bad debts had been negotiated for restructuring, he said.

 

As the level of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system was huge, time was needed for a clean-up and this constrained economic recovery during the pre-Thaksin period, according to Phairoj.

 

The exchange-rate system that was changed to a floating regime, new bankruptcy laws and other institutions that were created following the crisis, are all factors that have facilitated growth during the Thaksin years.

 

Phairoj argues that Thaksin did not create any foundation to support sustainable growth. Most of his policies were merely marketing gimmickry, in his view.

 

Phairoj in fact gives more credit to the resilient nature of the Thai economy as it experienced high growth for 40 years before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Due to a diversification of the economy and its innate strengths, it is now just back to its naturally high growth, he said, adding that compared to Latin American countries, Thailand is much stronger.

 

External factors have also been favourable to the Thaksin administration, such as lower interest rates, low inflation and high export demand, said Phairoj.

 

He is convinced that what makes people trust Thaksin is his grip control on TV and most radio stations, feeding the majority of the people a diet of feel-good information.

 

Aat Pisarnwanich, an economist at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, agrees with the Thai Rak Thai?s grass-roots policies but laments that they have been poorly implemented, resulting in give-away money that has resulted in more debt for low income earners.

 

Over the past four years, Thaksin has pumped some Bt300 billion of cheap credit into the economy through various populist policies. His objective has been to put money directly into the hands of the rural folk, help people have more access to credit and build up a new entrepreneurial class.

 

These populist programmes have made Thaksin and his party very popular with voters, who feel tangible benefits from his policies. But the side-effect is that it has resulted in a sharp rise in household debt, which climbed from an average of Bt60,000 four years ago to Bt120,000 at present.

 

Thaksinomics has also benefited from a favourable global economic environment, low interest rates, a cheap baht and a resurgent China. These factors have allowed Thaksin to pump easy money into the economy and create the illusion that his populist polices really work.

 

Economic growth in the first year of Thaksinomics in 2001 was rather disappointing at 1.8 per cent. Yet things began to turn around quickly the following year, when the economy expanded 5.2 per cent. In 2003, the recovery was more evident, with a growth rate of 6.7 per cent.

 

Last year, despite southern unrest, the bird flu and higher oil prices, the economy still managed to register a growth rate of about 6.2 per cent.

 

The jury is still out on the effect of Thaksinomics. Household debt has not yet become a problem. But going forward, if it continues to rise amid the higher interest-rate environment, it could develop into a household-debt crisis. Easy lending by state-owned banks might prove disastrous if the economy slows down.

 

by Thanong Khanthong, Wichit Chaitrong

[Mentors]

THE NATION

Snub from the South, where TRT won just one seat,( ) suggests troubled region will be government’s biggest challenge

 

The Thai Rak Thai party’s utter failure to win over the South in Sunday’s election and its resounding triumph in the rest of Thailand will leave Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with a deeply divided nation.

 

The ruling party won just one seat in the South – tsunami-hit Phang Nga – and lost out to the Democrats in the three southernmost provinces, which have become a hotbed of separatist insurgency. That nearly the entire region snubbed Thai Rak Thai in Sunday’s general election means Thaksin’s most formidable challenge in his first term will only grow more daunting as he prepares for his second term.

 

Further complicating matters is the massive landslide Thai Rak Thai enjoyed in all other parts of Thailand, including Bangkok, a solid popular endorsement of the Thaksin government’s key policies, including its controversial handling of the separatist problem.

 

With more than 60 per cent of votes counted yesterday, Thai Rak Thai seemed to have scored absolute victories in 42 provinces – a remarkable feat. The party nearly secured a clean sweep of Bangkok as well, but four Democrats and one Chat Thai candidate managed to scrape through.

 

Despite that, the ruling party was shut out of the southernmost provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani despite fielding strong incumbents who ran under the Thai Rak Thai banner following a merger between the ruling party and the New Aspiration Party, as well as those who defected from the Democrat Party.

 

Southern academics and religious leaders noted that it was perhaps the first time that local Muslims have used the parliamentary channel to put forward an unmistakable message of dissatisfaction with the central government.

 

The sweetness of his election win badly soured, Thaksin was forced to admit that southerners are loyal to the Democrat Party and that the ongoing violence in the region may have contributed to his party falling short. Citing ill health, he cancelled a trip to the region tomorrow.

 

The stunned leader described the still unofficial results as a “wake-up call” to his government, but insisted he would not alter his approach to what he calls a “law and order” problem.

 

“This is a disappointing result. We should have won some,” Thaksin told reporters in Bangkok after it became clear that none of the 11 Thai Rak Thai candidates in the southernmost provinces would make it to parliament. ( :: )

 

Many voters said they had lost faith in Thaksin, who has refused to apologise for incidents such as the deaths of 78 Muslims in October who were held in military custody after being arrested for protesting in the village of Tak Bai. Trying to improve his image after the Tak Bai bloodbath, Thaksin introduced an origami bird campaign that had the rest of Thailand folding tens of millions of paper birds that were later showered on the troubled deep South on December 5.

[Nervous_Dog]

Suadan, from your post this sums it up, <<These populist programmes have made Thaksin and his party very popular with voters, who feel tangible benefits from his policies. But the side-effect is that it has resulted in a sharp rise in household debt, which climbed from an average of Bt60,000 four years ago to Bt120,000 at present.>>

 

He has, unlike anyone before, kept his promises, in the process debt has ballooned, however, in our village, some have been smart, not many, but a few very poor, now have cows, who fuck and breed, sold original cows, have income.

 

His ideas "Could" work if they were managed properly, however they are not . . . Still, he kept most of his promises,

 

DOG

[..]

Nervous_Dog said:He has, unlike anyone before, kept his promises, in the process debt has ballooned, however, in our village, some have been smart, not many, but a few very poor, now have cows, who fuck and breed, sold original cows, have income.

 

His ideas "Could" work if they were managed properly, however they are not . . . Still, he kept most of his promises

But his promises seem to be pointed at getting reelected. If he wants to be another Harry Lee Quan Yew or Dr. M, he needs to make the people understand that to grow, you need to endure some pain and that nothing is free, but in the end it is worth it. He could do it, but he needs to change his tune quickly...

 

Just my humble opinion, but shared by the wife and quite a few others I know.

 

Cheers,

SD

[Flashermac]

<< Maybe someday, we'll accept they do not have to think as we do, and not patronizing them for doing so. >>

 

 

The same can be said of the American voters for reelecting George Bush!

 

p.s. My wife voted for TRT once again. I can't seem to make any impression on her that Mr T cares only for Mr T. And this is a woman with 3 university degrees who has been to the US and Japan and studied in England. What hope is their for the ordinary uneducated Thai?

[Guest]

Hi

 

Fucking fustrating!. Like leading sheep to the slaughterhouse.

 

Gf's parents both work for the Thai Goverment, and both voted against. I voted against. All presented valid reasoning.

 

But in the end, as seemingly intelligent as she is, and I know her to be...., she chucked it all, to go with the flow, and what is popular, and what her friends were all doing.

 

I chuck it up to her being young, and not really understanding the consequences, and not really understanding the implications.

 

I love my tirak, and will always give her the freedom to vote as she likes. She wants Taksin?...Then I told her her don't complain about what she gets.

 

But her mind-set is what still has him there. And in an overwhelming majority of the Thai people. He knows how to play the public, and does it well.

 

The Thai way, as you very well know, is to go with the flow. And is the simple reason Taksin is still there, no matter what.

 

Drug wars, the south.........

 

No problem

 

It's all under control.

 

HT

[Nervous_Dog]

I agree totally with you, I don't think his promises hel in the way they are managed, however at least the poor are getting something for the first time, something even the nation admits.

 

What is needed is a good strong dose of ecenomic medicine, right now, while times are good, so that when they are bad, it won't be so bad.

 

DOG

[Ashman]

Nervous_Dog said:

at least the poor are getting something for the first time, something even the nation admits.

DOG

 

This can't be denied.

 

 

also-the PM'smilitary friends north of the border will be more than happy with his re-election

 

http://www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=4378&z=153

 

speaking in his weekly radio address, Thaksin said he found the reasons given by the Rangoon government for pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi?s continued detention ?reasonable enough and convincing.?

 

 

 

 

He seems to forget Aung San Suu Kyi won her election by a landslide aswell.

[Mentors]

i think, every foreigner should think in the nearer future about making a invest in Thailand (also about buying house/condos) under TRT regime.

We should wait and see whats going on.

My GF told me today that the people in South Thailand (i mean not only the deep South) are very frustrated about the election results made of only because the uneducated and gullible Isarn people and the materialism people around Bkk.

:onfire: