Hat Yai: Insurgents bid for independent state...

[SiamIAm]

Here is a surprisingly insightful Thai translated article that roughly outlines what's really going on with the violence in the South: http://2bangkok.com/south3.shtml

 

Unfortunately, with Taksin "going soft" and pulling some of the military presence out of the south, it may only serve to spur the insurgents to increase the frequency and size of future bombings, as they may take kindness for weakness...

 

This type of action (bombings) is meant to catch the attention of the international (read UN) community to recognize these insurgents as a "credible" organization, and all that entitles. For the UN to do so would grantee a long, bloody, protracted civil war as neither the insurgents (unless eradicated) or the Thai government will likely back down from their positions. Basically it would turn the south into another Israeli / Palestinian conflict.

 

Without decisive military intervention NOW, these acts of violence WILL spread north. With the insurgents goals to make a political statement, garner international media coverage and the acquisition of men and material. Likely future bombing targets would be police, military, and governmental buildings along with soft western targets that would have the “highest media impact” basically anywhere “westerners” congregate en masse.

 

I really hope the Thai government knows the seriousness of this situation, and takes action accordingly…I would absolutely HATE to see the situation degenerate further.

 

For a further insight into the political propaganda being disseminated by the insurgents, you can check out the PULO website at www.pulo.org The site is block by the Thai government, so if your in Thailand you can’t access. Most of it is in Thai but here are some English sections. I currently have someone translating the Thai sections and will post here once done.

[Guest]

[second time you are posting racial crap here, it had better be the last time - KS]

 

[SiamIAm]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but:

 

"Insurgents" is a euphemism (SIC). This is a war."

 

I chose to use the term because it accurately describes the political situation. Insurgency; a rising in revolt against established authority, especially a government. Rebelling against the leadership of a political party.

 

But perhaps Para-military group is the most accurate description...

 

"The attackers are Moslems who are following the instructions in their holy book, the "Qu'ran". It is conquest of all non-Moslems, all over the world."

 

While the Qu'ran does advocate death to all infidels, it is not that strictly followed by all Muslims. Not all Muslims are bent on the destruction of the "west", or the indiscriminant killing of "westerners"...

 

"Their "long, bloody, protracted" war has already been going on, more or less, for 1,400 years. It is not going to end soon..."

 

As stated in their political propaganda they have "revolted" against the Thai government because they feel their State (Patani) was annexed after the creation of the Malaysian boarder. They are apparently fighting to re-insert the state of into what is now southern Thailand. This happened relatively recently, roughly 100 years ago...

 

"The situation will deteriorate further - not only in South Thailand, but everywhere else in the world that Moslem warriors choose to take their never-ending battles."

 

Of that I have no doubt...But as it's relative to this board, perhaps we should stay focused on the Thai conflict, and/or conflicts that directly affect Thailand.

 

 

 

Regards,

 

Siam

[Nervous_Dog]

Khun, what a load of crap, even the Thai Military admit that just over half the attacks are aiimed at a Pattana free state (Which was independant before) the rest are the local mafia etc causing trouble.

 

Hate posts like yours I hope are not tolerated here.

 

DOG

[Flashermac]

Actually, PULO's historic argument is nonsense. The sultanate of Pattani was tributary to Siam for many centuries in the past, not just since the early 1900s. Also, the sultanate was SPLIT IN TWO. Thus presumably they should be trying to recover Kelantan and the other parts of Malaysia that were the other half of old Pattani. Obviously, they are not ... since it wouldn't look good for them to be angering next door Muslim state.

 

The CIA's estimates of PULO strength had been something like no more than about 100 activists. Thaksin surely has managed to multiply that number by many times.

 

It is a lose-lose situation for the Thais. Do nothing, and the attacks go on. Strike back hard, and they increase the number of insurgents.

 

Chuan had the best policy. Let them more or less alone to run their own lives. But things have gone too far for that now. Chuan walked around the sleeping tiger. Thaksin walked over and kicked it in the ribs.

[Guest]

I say let them have their indepenant state.

Shit we could even send Tony Blair Or Thatcher or Bush to run it for them

 

Now theres a thought eh ?

 

 

Hey ? Does a 'Bush' need a 'Thatcher' ho ho ho

[Zorro]

The hardline approach never works and in fact tends to escalate problems over the long run.

 

The Thaksin approach to the south has had the effect of stirring up the hornets nest.

Who knows where it will all end but dialogue, trust and credibility need to be restored if a satisfactory long term solution is to be reached.

Arbitary killings, and politically sanctioned executions is not the way forward. Moderate muslims are being pushed into the hands of the radical elements because Thaksins policies have ostensibly left them isolated from the mainly dominated Buddhist majority.

The scary things is that many 'educated' Thais actually agree with the hardline approach.

Where will it all end?

I think it is difficult to say but it seems if current policies are not altered drastically Thailand is destined for a long period of instability in the south.

[SiamIAm]

"Actually, PULO's historic argument is nonsense."

 

I totally agree with you. I feel this is more of any excuse for violence, and/or legitimization (in the worlds eyes) of their organization, rather than the actual cause of it.

 

"It is a lose-lose situation for the Thais. Do nothing, and the attacks go on. Strike back hard, and they increase the number of insurgents."

 

True, but the government would be remise to simply allow a rogue organizations annex land from them. IMHO decisive action is needed here to stem these activities before the situation turns into another east Timor...

 

"...But things have gone too far for that now. Chuan walked around the sleeping tiger. Thaksin walked over and kicked it in the ribs."

 

Again, for Thaksin to take no action against this indiscriminate violence against Thai citizens, and to allow this uprising to continue to organize (and possibly garner UN recognition) would be a monumental mistake. The Thai government is in a very dicey situation here, and whatever they do (or don't do) they will painted as being wrong. From what I've researched, these insurgents struck first and bombed not only political and military targets, (if that wasn't bad enough...) but civilian as well. A military response from Thaksin is necessary is such situations...

 

All in MHO of course.

[SiamIAm]

"The hardline approach never works and in fact tends to escalate problems over the long run."

 

Define "hard-line"...The Thai government must do something here. These attacks will not stop with simple political discourse, unless of course the Thai government agrees to give them a Patani state. The stated mission of these organizations is to annex land from the sovereign country of Thailand, the government MUST militarily intervene in such situations.

 

Imagine if this happened in your country, what action would you demand of your government?

 

"...Moderate muslims are being pushed into the hands of the radical elements because Thaksins policies have ostensibly left them isolated from the mainly dominated Buddhist majority."

 

I'm not a political expert on the south, so I don't claim to know that whether or not the southern Muslims were directly discriminated against by the Thai government, or by the average southern Buddhist... IMHO Muslims in the south have to make a decision to either side with Thailand or the insurgents. It's the actions of these extremist (bombing schools, trying to annex Thai sovereign land, ect...) that is forcing Thaksin to act militarily, not the other way around.

 

HOPEFULLY Thaksin can limit his response to only the insurgents (debatable so far). This should limit the amount of political propaganda the insurgents can use for recruitment purposes. For the Thai government to do nothing in fear of possible recruitment would be a tactical error. In fact it would probably embolden the separatists as they would have no fear of reprisal.

[khunsanuk]

[Removed a bunch of off-topic posts - KS]