Guest Posted November 6, 2001 Report Share Posted November 6, 2001 Hi about the life expectancy I'll repeat a post I wrote on another tread.I know personnally several people who died from aids but the medecines seem to be more and more effective.A friend had been HIV+ over 10 years(14 I think) and is still going pretty well.Going back to my hometown I met another friend who was in a alarming situation 6 years before,he's 10 kgs bigger now.Besides that the people I know who died the last couple of years where foreigners living illegaly in Europe and i'm afraid they couldn't get the medical attention they needed.Drug abuse seem to make matter worse. Well all the people I can think of happened not to be heterosexual but I wouldn't follow Spirit's stance.What I heard mostly is that vaginal sex is at low risk.Anal sex much riskier,that also with a lady.And things worsen during periods(ugly periods...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carlton68 Posted November 7, 2001 Report Share Posted November 7, 2001 Hey, even if it's less likely that a man gets the HI Virus from a woman throught vaginal sex it still can happen. Just do some math: lets say your risk is at 10 percent. Let's assume one out of 100 girls is HIV+. This makes just 0,1 percent risk. Do we have some volunteers to prove that? Spirit, what about some field reserch? You take another girl every night and you are trough it after three years. If you are still negative then I'll do the next thousand (with condom). Carlton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svolter Posted November 7, 2001 Report Share Posted November 7, 2001 Well if the risk is 10 procent to catch it then it will be 10 procent each time you have sex. The 99 ladies with are HIV- there is no problem but with the HIV+ lady number 100 is still 10 procent risk. The funny thing is that people won´t beleive that it can happen to them if the risk is maybe 0.1 procent. But still the same people play lottery etc and belives they will win the jackpot. Even when the odds is 1/1 000 000. Strange logic -S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2001 Report Share Posted November 7, 2001 If you're chances of getting HIV from a single act of intercourse are .1%, this means that you chances of not getting HIV are 99.9%. Sound safe? Consider this... Spend 8 days in LOS, nail two girls a day without protection [total 16 sex acts] and you've got a 1.6% chance of contracting HIV. Does that sound "safe"? Spend a little longer, say 22 days and average 1.5 different girls a day [total 33 acts of intercourse] and you've got a 3.3% chance of getting HIV. Gonna gamble your one and only life on a 30:1 bet? If you're that stupid, please remove yourself from the gene pool ASAP, but not at someone else's expense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2001 Report Share Posted November 7, 2001 Bohicasia, your formula is correct only if you assume that 100% of BG's are HIV+. Of course, even the most alarmist of us knows that that is not true. The chances of catching HIV from an HIV- BG is obviously 0%. Assuming, say, that 10% of BG's are HIV+, and that your odds of contracting the disease from unsafe sex with one of them is 10%, then your chances of catching HIV from a BG whose HIV status is unknown is therefore 1 in 100. Have unsafe sex with 33 BG's whose status is unknown (as in Bohicasia's 22-day holiday), and your chances of coming down with the disease are 33%. I personally think that 10% is a reasonably accurate figure for BG's who are HIV+. That is, BG's in the Patpong-Nana Plaza-Soi Cowboy realm. Figures for upcountry brothel workers, naturally, would be much higher. I do not believe, however, that the chances of a man contracting HIV from condomless sex with an HIV+ woman are anywhere near 10%. I read a scholarly article somewhere (can't remember where, though, sorry), that put it at around 1 in 700, or .143%. Based on these figures, your chances of contracting HIV from a one-time condomless sex act with a BG whose status was unknown would be 1 in 7,000. Over Bohicasia's 22-day holiday, that would be 33 in 7,000 or about one in 200 (.47%) of returning home with an unwanted souvenir. Still not a chance I'd be willing to take. [ November 07, 2001: Message edited by: PvtDick ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carlton68 Posted November 8, 2001 Report Share Posted November 8, 2001 Bohicasia, I try to remove spirit from the gene pool, not me. Read my post, I'll do the second thousand with condom. Why not using spirit as a guinea pig? I think that's what he does anyhow. Problem might be we never get him tested... Carlton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 8, 2001 Report Share Posted November 8, 2001 PvtDick, sorry to pick nits, but I think my math is right and yours is wrong. Here's why... If you've got a one in ten of getting HIV from a single act and one in one hundred are infected your total chances are one in one thousand. Now since you don't know the HIV status of your partner [and throwing out other factors like social class, education, employment and the rest] it really is as random as can be. Think of it as a cement mixer with 100,000 ping-pong balls in it; 99,000 orange [HIV-] and 1,000 blue [HIV+]. You reach in blindfolded and hope to pull an orange ball. If you pull a blue ball, crack it open -- 100 of the 1,000 them have a slip of paper iside with the word "DEATH" written on it. It works this way because the total chances per act of not contracting HIV are .999 and the chances of contracting HIV are thus 1 - .999 = .001 For the 33 sex acts, the chances of contracting HIV are 1 - (.999 ^ 330) = .033. For the record, my gut tells me the odds are a lot worse than 999:1, but I'm just working with previous numbers. You could get transmission risks from CDC, but the infection rate for falang-working Thai whores has never been isolated and quantified that I know of. It may be as bad as 300:1 overall, which by your 33'rd act would give you a 10.4% chance of testing postive. Put it another way, at 300:1 you have a 16.8% of being HIV+ by your 55th act. This is worse odds than the first pull on the trigger in a game of Russian Roulette. Carlton, hey man, I wasn't harshing on you at all. Sorry if you took it that way. My comments were actually aimed at fools and anyone who might be tempted to listen to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carlton68 Posted November 8, 2001 Report Share Posted November 8, 2001 bohica, sorry, seems I got it the wrong way. I think you can't convince someone like spirit to take rubbers. You still can try to outlive him, of course. Spirit, you ever get tested? how long ago, what was the result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 8, 2001 Report Share Posted November 8, 2001 Bohicasia, you're right: I misunderstood your logic. Wherever you put your decimal point, though, anyone who does not use condoms with BG's is self-destructive at best -- suicidal/murderous at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spirit_of_town_hall Posted November 8, 2001 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2001 quote: Originally posted by carlton68: bohica, sorry, seems I got it the wrong way. I think you can't convince someone like spirit to take rubbers. You still can try to outlive him, of course. Spirit, you ever get tested? how long ago, what was the result? Hi Carlton, Where have I ever said that I don't use "rubbers" as I've stated I always use rubbers with Thai girls unless I have known the girl a month or so and know that she is clean. To know that she is clean we both go for an HIV test, I know some arseholes who just get the girl tested!! I NEVER use condoms with girls back here in the UK once I have established that they are on the pill. In my 28 years 2 cases of NSU infection from English Student girls would you believe!! Carlton read my posts, where have I advocated no rubber use!! I've merely voiced my thoughts on the transferability of the HIV virus from women to a man through normal vaginal intercourse. Hope that clears it up with you Carlton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.