JJsushi Posted July 6, 2006 Report Share Posted July 6, 2006 vegasdave49 said:What is up with the baht. Looks like it is under 39 to the $. From some of the things I have read it would seem like it should be going the other way. I know the greenback has been on the skids but this is nuts. Between inflation and the low dollar LOS is on the brink of getting expensive. Well not actualy expensive, but certainly less cheap. All and all it looks to be about 15 to 20% more costly than just a couple years ago. I have a trip coming up in Jan and wonder if anyone has a sense of if the baht will be dropping. My professional analysis is that there are more sellers of the $ than buyers or more buyers of the baht than sellers. Regardless, plan your trip according to what u are willing to spend. See how easy foreign currency is? LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJsushi Posted July 6, 2006 Report Share Posted July 6, 2006 Gadfly1 said:And forget about speculating on currency changes - unless you want to spend all of your time watching exchange rate fluctuations, have studied currency markets (start with Krugman's works) and you have a huge appetite for risk - [color:"blue"] and even then its a 50/50 chance you'll get burned.[/color] Uhmmm, I would take that risk everyday if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.. Posted July 7, 2006 Report Share Posted July 7, 2006 Sheesh. Baht closed today at 38.00! Cheers, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dean Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 I'll arrive next Thursday, so if the past is any indication (I arrived on January 1 for 3 months and watched the baht go from 40 plus to 37), it should continue a downward spiral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elef Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 I guess that your "it" refers to the dollar as the dollar has become weaker against the baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Petchburi Pete Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 Not to fret. Just scour Beach Rd. near dawn and bargain (while hard!) with those who haven't had a bite ... think you'll find that breakfast in bed is still rather cheap in Sin City! Exchange rate?? ... will depend upon who's eager to receive what's being givien! Dollars ... Bahts ... ain't goin to matter all that much ... plenty of bargains out there at any rate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dean Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 Sorry for the econfusion, I meant to say my purchasing power of the baht (using dollars) has declined the last 3 times that I have visited Thailand. I also managed to send 35,000 sterling in April, when the exchange rate was 66.5 to one. I think that its safe to say, I'll never be a currency trader. In my own defense, I didn't want to wire the sterling to my Thai account until the exchange rate was more favorable but, as I am sure those that have either built (or remodeled) a house/condo, you can tell a thai builder what your budget is and what you would like to accomplish. In my case, they remembered what I would like but not the budget I was working under. They bought a second house to dismantle the teak from and they bought a used pick up to haul the materials to and from. I could have wired only 700,00 baht worth of sterling but decided to wire the entire amount. If I had waited 2-3 weeks, I would be 200,000 baht richer now (the cost of the pick up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junglesoup Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 US non-farm payrolls came in quite abit below expectations today, signalling a slow down in the US economy. This reduces the likelyhood of another rate rise in August. Rising interest rates in the US are what supported the dollar last year, but if the interest rate cycle is over, then there may be more declines in the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 Just to add to the confusion.... 40% of the Thai economy is based on tourism. Tourism is said to be down 30% at the moment. Property is not selling...prices are not going down yet tho'....but there is a glut.... Most Thais have accrued debts. A lot of foreign investment has left Thailand lately. 2007 is already predicted to be a bad year for the global economy. The political situation in Thailand will be resolved, so i don't see that being an issue, but other factors may mean 2007 is a poor year here. The Baht is likely to weaken in other words. But what do i know? Not much really :: :: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junglesoup Posted July 8, 2006 Report Share Posted July 8, 2006 In the short term the baht may be strong, but in the longer term it may weaken considerably. The problem is that emerging market currencies are not so stable, and any panic can cause an outflow of funds which effects emerging market currencies more than the majors. The reason is that the foreign investment taken out of the Thai economy is a huge amount as regards the Thai economy but its actaully very little to the foreign corps and investors. In 1997, the foreign money that was invested in Thailand and Asia was "spare cash" or "fun money" for some big investors as the western stock markets were doing well at the time. However it was a large amount relative to the thai economy.The Asian markets provided opportunities for some huge gains with Thailand at one point experiecing 27% growth in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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