Monks On The Move

[kamui]

I have question: provided the unlikely outcome of the protests that the the military dictatorship will collapse, what will happen then?

 

As I understand it, Burma does not have an homogeneous population, but is divided in several enthnic groups, some of them well armed.

 

Will Burma implode and/or have a nasty civil war? Or would the opposition parties/groups be able to form a new government and unifiy the country?

[YimSiam]

Implosion and nasty civil war(s) have been going on for decades in Burma -- one of the hooks that the minorities like to hang their hats on is Aung San's (Aung San Suu Kyi's father) alleged pro-minority position, believing that the 'father of the nation' would have allowed significant autonomy for the ethnic minorities, including the right of withdrawal from the union (and eventual independence), ideas that evaporated quickly after his killing.

 

Should the regime miraculously collapse (and Michelle Quan finally win her Olympic gold medal on unusually delicate late-spring ice, in her own special variant of hell...), my guess is that we'd see previously unknown groups pushing into power positions, while the monks make a dash for whatever border is least likely to result in a pushback and prison/maybe death... The NLD and friends will push strongly for control, given that they won something like 90% of the parliamentary seats in the 1990 election (which might be considered the only - and unnecessarily - democratic exercise in 50 year), and the monks will retreat gracefully into their cells -- after 50 years of dictatorship, this is what they know best, not confrontation... The leadership will likely be old and new Bamar ethnic pro-democ people, but with a rainbow sample of minorities (Kachin, Chin, Arakan, Karen, Shan, Mon, and Karenni - plus the slightly more suspect Indian/Muslim guys) would be tasked - by the NLD, and their international supporters, with engaging the border and arms-for-peace insurgents...

 

The junta does have something of a valid point when it comes to their insistence on the importance of maintaining territorial integrity and dealing with insurgencies. Perhaps only the NLD has the influence to hold the minorities to the Union in the short term, should these groups be allowed the choice to remain in the Union in some way; -- it's worth keeping in mind that some of the most important opposition parties in Burma probably don't particularly care about the sacrality or unassailability of monks, given that they are largely Christian (karen, karenni, chin) or Muslim (the North Rakhine Staters, Rohingyas). Anyone who takes over will have to begin to chart a real path towards minority autonomy within a federal system.

(UWSA, DKBA) and legitimate armed groups with politican ends and means.

 

Even in the unlikely event that there's a total transfer of power as a result of these marches, the democrats may not have the experience or wisdom to pull the minorities throught the Constitutional nonsense and into the real soup...

 

Should the democrats really f*ck it up, or the Tatmadaw come up with some brilliant "back-down politically, hang on, my money's on the (Chinese-linked) Kachin to maintain and even expand their (well-grounded) support bases in the north... to some humanitarian aid as well.

[chuckwoww]

Wow....somebody who knows something about Burma. Thanks for taking the trouble to post that. I had a suspicion it was more complicated than Aung San Suu Kyi simply taking over and everybody singing cumbaya.

[Flashermac]

I see Burma as something similar to former Yugoslavia. Both were created more or less by force and held together more or less by force. With the strongman gone, Yugoslavia broke up once again. Same same Burma? (Though granted Burma has been held together far longer ...)

 

 

 

 

[YimSiam]

Can't say I KNOW anything about Burma, but admit I've read much of what's out there on the recent past in English, spent a lot of time with Burmese refugees in various roles, and have a strangely compelling and continuing fascination with the place and people... including the challenge to figure out whether national political 'integration' (of some sort - i.e., democracy) or suppression/consolidation of ethnic minorities' land should come first. Frankly, a country at war with itself is unlikely to be a model democracy or reliable partner in anything, which is why the loss of "ally" Khin Nyunt (a notorious war criminal, torturer, and former boss of an astounding insidious network of internal spies, yet also a former military intelligence chief most respected by the minorities) hurt a couple years ago: there's now no one at all to talk to in the command structure.

 

Can't wait (morbid curiosity, I admit) to see how Thailand reacts when this all comes crashing down... especially if there is a massive wave of monks coming across the border, or arming themselves in Tak/Kanch!!!

 

I used to live two doors down from a meth dealer in California, once called the police on the guy (beating pregnant girlfriend in the street outside my house...) -- I can only imagine Burma is the blighted and embarrassing meth shack on the ASEAN block, just like that shithole - a dangerous pain in the ass that reeks of urine, is loaded with drugs and a few weapons, hardly speaks English, and promises problems...

 

But hey, crazy shit happens in Burma -- remember Khun Sa, USA's Number1 most wanted heroin dealer? Now he's relaxing in some bowling alley in Yangon while his old drug money compounds its earnings, unworried by the SPDC, DEA, ICE and others who have been looking for him for so long - a fate the Cali and Medellin boys can only dream of... I've got to imagine that anyone with money - like Khun Sa, the UWSA, the PRC big men, some generals - will be hoping for change, since real kyat will only roll in when there's international players involved and there's money moving around...

 

YimSiam

[bust]

The first arrests have taken place with reports of monks being beaten. Tear-gas has been fired to disperse crowds with about 80 arrests.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/26/2044242.htm

[bust]

After the surrender of the Japanese a military administration tried to arrest Aung San for his involvement in a murder during military operations in 1942. Mountbatten realized that this was going to be extremely difficult considering his popularity. After the war ended, the British Governor, Sir Reginald Dorman-Smith returned. The restored government established a political program that focused on physical reconstruction of the country and delayed discussion of independence. There was opposition the government which led to political instability in the country. A rift had also developed between the Communists and Aung San together with the Socialists over strategy, which led to Than Tun being forced to resign as general secretary in July 1946. Dorman-Smith was replaced by Sir Hubert Rance as the new governor, and almost immediately after his appointment the Rangoon Police went on strike. The strike, starting in September 1946, then spread from the police to government employees and came close to becoming a general strike. Rance calmed the situation by meeting with Aung San and convincing him to join the Governor's Executive Council. The new executive council, which now had increased credibility in the country, began negotiations for Burmese independence, which were concluded successfully in London as the Aung San-Atlee Agreement on January 27, 1947. The agreement left parts of the communist and conservative branches of the AFPFL dissatisfied, however, sending the Red Flag Communists led by Thakin Soe underground and the conservatives into opposition. Aung San also succeeded in concluding an agreement with ethnic minorities for a unified Burma at the Panglong Conference on February 12, celebrated since as 'Union Day'.Shortly after, rebellion broke out in the Arakan led by the veteran monk U Seinda, and it began to spread to other districts. The popularity of the Ant Fascist Peoples Freedom League, now dominated by Aung San and the Socialists, was eventually confirmed when it won an overwhelming victory in the April 1947 constituent assembly elections.

 

Then a momentous event stunned the nation on July 19, 1947. U Saw, a conservative pre-war Prime Minister of Burma, engineered the assassination of Aung San and several members of his cabinet including his eldest brother Ba Win, the father of today's National League for Democracy exile-government leader Dr Sein Win. July 19 has been commemorated since as Martyrs' Day. Thakin Nu, the Socialist leader, was now asked to form a new cabinet, and he presided over Burmese independence on January 4, 1948. The popular sentiment to part with the British was so strong at the time that Burma opted not to join the British Commonwealth, unlike India or Pakistan.

 

The first years of Burmese independence were marked by successive insurgencies by the Red Flag Communists, the White Flag Communists, the Yèbaw Hpyu, a member of the Thirty Comrades, army rebels calling themselves the Revolutionary Burma Army (RBA) led by Communist officers Bo Zeya, Bo Yan Aung and Bo Yè Htut - all three of them members of the Thirty Comrades, Arakanese Muslims or the Mujahid, and the Karen National Union (KNU). Remote areas of Northern Burma were for many years controlled by an army of Kuomintang (KMT) forces after the Communist victory in China. Burma accepted foreign assistance in rebuilding the country in these early years, but continued American support for the Chinese Nationalist military presence in Burma finally resulted in the country rejecting most foreign aid,refusing to join the South-East Asia Treaty Organisation and supporting the Bandung Conference of 1955. Burma generally strove to be impartial in world affairs and was one of the first countries in the world to recognize Israel and the People's Republic of China.

 

By 1958, the country was largely beginning to recover economically, but was beginning to fall apart politically due to a split in the AFPFL into two factions, one led by Thakins Nu and Tin, the other by Ba Swe and Kyaw Nyein. The situation however became very unstable in parliament, with U Nu surviving a no-confidence vote only with the support of the opposition National United Front. Over 400 'communist sympathisers' were arrested, of which 153 were deported to the Coco Island in the Andaman Sea. Among them was the NUF leader Aung Than, older brother of Aung San. The Botahtaung, Kyemon and Rangoon Daily were also closed down.

 

Ne Win's caretaker government successfully stabalised the situation and paved the way for new general elections in 1960 that returned U Nu's Union Party with a large majority. The situation did not remain stable for long, when the Shan Federal Movement, started by Nyaung Shwe Sawbwa Sao Shwe Thaik ( the first President of independent Burma 1948-52) and aspiring to a 'loose' federation, was seen as a separatist movement insisting on the government honouring the right to secession in 10 years provided for by the 1947 Constitution. Ne Win had already succeeded in stripping the Shan Sawbwas of their feudal powers in exchange for comfortable pensions for life in 1959. He staged a coup d'etat on March 2, 1962, arrested U Nu, Sao Shwe Thaik and several others, and declared a 'socialist state' run by a 'Revolutionary Council' of senior military officers. Sao Shwe Thaik's son, Sao Mye Thaik, was shot dead in what was generally described as a 'bloodless' coup. Thibaw Sawbwa Sao Kya Seng also disappeared mysteriously after being stopped at a checkpoint near Taunggyi.

 

Soon after seizing power, a peaceful student protest on Rangoon University campus was suppressed by the military killing over 100 students on July 7, 1962. The next day, the army blew up the Students Union building. Peace talks were convened between the RC and various armed insurgent groups in 1963, but without any breakthrough, and during the talks as well as in the aftermath of its failure, hundreds were arrested in Rangoon and elsewhere from both the right and the left of the political spectrum. All opposition parties were banned on March 28, 1964. The Kachin insurgency by the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) had begun earlier in 1961 triggered by U Nu's declaration of Buddhism as the state religion, and the Shan State Army (SSA), led by Sao Shwe Thaik's wife Mahadevi and son Chao Tzang Yaunghwe, launched a rebellion in 1964 as a direct consequence of the 1962 military coup.

 

Ne Win quickly took steps to transform Burma into his vision of a 'socialist state' and to isolate the country from contact with the rest of the world. A one-party system was established with his newly formed Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) in complete control. Commerce and industry were nationalized across the board, but the economy did not grow at first as the government put too much emphasis on industrial development at the expense of agriculture. In April 1972, General Ne Win and the rest of the Revolutionary Council retired from the military, but now as U Ne Win, he continued to run the country through the BSPP. A new constitution was promulgated in January 1974 that resulted in the creation of a People's Assembly (Pyithu Hluttaw) that held supreme legislative, executive, and judicial authority, and local People's Councils. Ne Win became the president of the new government.

 

Beginning in May 1974, a wave of strikes hit Rangoon and elsewhere in the country against a backdrop of corruption, inflation and food shortages especially rice. In Rangoon workers were arrested at the Insein railway yard, and troops opened fire on workers at the Thamaing textile mill and Simmalaik dockyard. In December 1974, the biggest anti-government demonstrations to date broke out over the funeral of former UN Secretary-General U Thant. U Thant had been former prime minister U Nu's closest advisor in the 1950s and was seen as a symbol of opposition to the military regime. The Burmese people felt that U Thant was denied a state funeral that he deserved as a statesman of international stature because of his association with U Nu.

 

On March 23 1976, over 100 students were arrested for holding a peaceful ceremony (Hmaing yabyei) to mark the centenary of the birth of Thakin Kodaw Hmaing who was the greatest Burmese poet and writer and nationalist leader of the 20th. century history of Myanmar. He had inspired a whole generation of Burmese nationalists and writers by his work mainly written in verse, fostering immense pride in their history, language and culture, and urging them to take direct action such as strikes by students and workers. It was Hmaing as leader of the mainstream Dobama who sent the Thirty Comrades abroad for military training, and after independence devoted his life to internal peace and national reconciliation until he died at the age of 88 in 1964. Hmaing lies buried in a mausoleum at the foot of the Shwedagon Pagoda.

 

In 1978, a military operation was conducted against the Rohingya Muslims in Arakan, called the King Dragon operation, causing 250,000 refugees to flee to neighboring Bangladesh.

 

U Nu, after his release from prison in October 1966, had left Burma in April 1969, and formed the Parliamentary Democracy Party (PDP) the following August in Bangkok,Thailand with the former Thirty Comrades, Bo Let Ya, co-founder of the CPB and former Minister of Defence and deputy prime minister, Bo Yan Naing, and U Thwin, ex-BIA and former Minister of Trade. Another member of the Thirty Comrades, Bohmu Aung, former Minister of Defence, joined later. The fourth, Bo Setkya, who had gone underground after the 1962 coup, died in Bangkok shortly before U Nu arrived.[2] The PDP launched an armed rebellion across the Thai border from 1972 till 1978 when Bo Let Ya was killed in an attack by the Karen National Union (KNU). U Nu, Bohmu Aung and Bo Yan Naing returned to Rangoon after the 1980 amnesty. Ne Win also secretly held peace talks later in 1980 with the KIO and the CPB, again ending in a deadlock as before.

 

In the 1980s, the economy began to grow as the government relaxed restrictions on foreign aid, but by the late 1980s falling commodity prices and rising debt led to an economic crisis. This led to economic reforms in 1987-88 that relaxed socialist controls and encouraged foreign investment. This was not enough, however, to stop growing turmoil in the country, compounded by periodic 'demonetization' of certain bank notes in the currency, the last of which was decreed in September 1987 wiping out the savings of the vast majority of people.

Triggered by brutal police repression of student-led protests causing the death of over a hundred students and civilians in March and June 1988, widespread protests and demonstrations broke out on August 8 throughout the country. The military responded by firing into the crowds, alleging Communist infiltration. Violence, chaos and anarchy reigned. Civil administration had ceased to exist, and by September of that year, the country was on the verge of a revolution. The armed forces, under the nominal command of General Saw Maung staged a coup on September 18 to restore order. During the 8888 Uprising, as it became known, the military killed thousands. The military swept aside the Constitution of 1974 in favor of martial law under the State Law and Order Restoration Council

The military government changed the name of the country in English from Burma to Myanmar in 1989. It also continued the economic reforms started by the old regime and called for a Constituent Assembly to revise the 1974 Constitution. This led to multiparty elections in May 1990 in which the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory over the National Unity Party (NUP, the successor to the BSPP) and about a dozen smaller parties. The military, however, would not let the assembly convene, and continued to hold the two leaders of the NLD, U Tin U and Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of Aung San, under house arrest imposed on them the previous year. Burma came under increasing international pressure to convene the elected assembly, particularly after Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, and also faced economic sanctions. In April 1992 the military replaced Saw Maung with General Than Shwe.

 

Than Shwe released U Nu from prison and relaxed some of the restrictions on Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest, finally releasing her in 1995, although she was forbidden to leave Rangoon. Than Shwe also finally allowed a National Convention to meet in January 1993, but insisted that the assembly preserve a major role for the military in any future government, and suspended the convention from time to time. The NLD, fed up with the interference, walked out in late 1995, and the assembly was finally dismissed in March 1996 without producing a constitution.

 

During the 1990s, the military regime had also had to deal with several insurgencies by tribal minorities along its borders. General Khin Nyunt was able to negotiate cease-fire agreements that ended the fighting with the Kokang, hill tribes such as the Wa, and the Kachin, but the Karen would not negotiate. The military finally captured the main Karen base at Manerplaw in spring 1995, but there has still been no final peace settlement. Khun Sa, a major opium warlord who nominally controlled parts of Shan state, made a deal with the government in December 1995 after U.S. pressure.

 

After the failure of the National Convention to create a new constitution, tensions between the government and the NLD mounted, resulting in two major crackdowns on the NLD in 1996 and 1997. The SLORC was abolished in November 1997 and replaced by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), but it was merely a cosmetic change. Continuing reports of human rights violations in Myanmar led the United States to intensify sanctions in 1997, and the European Union followed suit in 2000. The military placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest again in September 2000 until May 2002, when her travel restrictions outside of Rangoon were also lifted. Reconciliation talks were held with the government, but these came to a stalemate and Suu Kyi was once again taken into custody in May 2003 after an ambush on her motorcade reportedly by a pro-military mob. She remains under house arrest today. The government also carried out another large-scale crackdown on the NLD, arresting many of its leaders and closing down most of its offices. The situation in Myanmar remains tense to this day.

 

In August 2003, Kyin Nyunt announced a seven-step "roadmap to democracy", which the government claims it is in the process of implementing. There is no timetable associated with the governmentâ??s plan, or any conditionality or independent mechanism for verifying that it is moving forward. For these reasons, most Western governments and Myanmar's neighbors have been skeptical and critical of the roadmap.

 

On February 17, 2005, the government reconvened the National Convention, for the first time since 1993, in an attempt to rewrite the Constitution. However, major pro-democracy organisations and parties, including the National League for Democracy, were barred from participating, the military allowing only selected smaller parties. It was adjourned once again in January 2006.

 

In November 2005, the military junta started moving the government away from Yangon to an unnamed location near Kyatpyay just outside Pyinmana, to a newly designated capital city. This public action follows a long term unofficial policy of moving critical military and government infrastructure away from Yangon to avoid a repetition of the events of 1988. On Armed Forces Day (March 27, 2006), the capital was officially named Naypyidaw Myodaw

[Flashermac]

The shooting has started ...

[FreeTime]

Some pics:

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7013852.stm

 

News bulletin:

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20982926

 

 

 

[chuckwoww]

"Americans are outraged about Burma!!"

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v509/dhd/chinayawn.jpg