chuckwoww Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 It would be the biggest run on gold since the attempted French invasion of Britain of 1797 that sent prices through the roof. The precious metal, long a safe haven for investors, yesterday was predicted by a leading analyst to quadruple within three years as buyers seek shelter from prolonged turmoil in mainstream financial markets. According to Christopher Wood, chief strategist at the broker CLSA, market ructions and a collapse of the dollar could send gold prices to more than $3,400 an ounce within the next three years. Gold futures last night hit a 28-year high at $733 an ounce, but are more than $100 short of the record. Mr Wood said that the sub-prime conflagration would be the catalyst for a wider breakdown in markets. However, Wood predicted that investors would soon realise that the sub-prime crisis is simply the catalyst of a much wider breakdown, arguing that it has been the â??Archduke Ferdinand assassination eventâ? that sparks a bigger calamity. â??This is not a sub-prime crisis. Sub-prime has merely exposed the bigger scam of structured finance; a scam that is about pretending that bad credit is good credit,â? he said. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article2485085.ece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 Wow, sounds positively scary..but then, is it real this time? Or are some folks talking the talk...i'm sure a lot of folks would be happy if the stock markets collapsed...an opportunity to make money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted October 28, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 Don't worry. If things get that bad the government will confiscate gold and we'll all get implanted with microchip debit cards (minidebs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jitagawn Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 I must say I tend to generally agree with his analysis and have positoned myself in the gold market accordingly.-How high who knows but it will go much higher than what you see here at 787$ (with some serious corrections of course ...fasten your seat belt) Gents the shit will really hit the fan and there will be a tremendous shift of wealth all manipulated by the FEDERAL RESERVE ( WHICH IS NOT FEDERAL AND HAS NO RESERVES LOL)and other powers to be...There is a current ENRON type of cover up manipualated by the treasury and the bankers regarding the ABCP PAPER CRISIS- I dont believe a word of what they print or expouse in the news... The cerdit criss is wayyyyy worse than they say Do note for the past year or so I have been endding economy related posts on ths board with the follwoing simple phrase== BUY GOLD :smirk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted October 28, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 Yep $10-20 moves are getting common. People are catching on. But it's still a dangerous game. http://www.kitco.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkoktraveler Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 Buy as much physical items as you can because run away inftion will wipe out all of your debts and the government debts at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junglesoup Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 The claims made about gold when actually looked at in detail are found to be in many cases the opposite of what popular media and finance press have us believe. GOLD IS NOT THE GREAT INVESTMENT EVERYONE THINKS IT IS. There are usually 3 claims made about gold. 1. Gold is a hedge against inflation 2. Gold is a hedge against a falling dollar 3. Gold offers terrific profit potential and appreciation. Lets disect each of these claims.I studied a study a while back about gold. A hedge is something that protects you against a financial loss. This claim is that gold will increase at or above inflation. Gold began to trade on the futures exchange in 1974. So that is 33 years of data to have a look at the bigger picture. The best way to look at it is over year to year basis, 3 year,5 year, 10 year and since inception. On 33 1 year periods gold beat inflation only 43% of the time. If it is looked at on a rolling basis of 10 years, so that would be 23 periods of 10 years, gold actually only beat inflation 26% percent of the time. The result was almost similar for the 3 and 5 year periods. When looked at over a 32 year period going from 1974 to 2006 gold just about best inflation. This was the only time it beat inflation. Gold was $159 in 1974 and by 2006 it was $623.To keep up with inflation gold would have needed to be $650, but it had bettered that before in that year. That claim really isnt true when looked at statistically. Who wants to hold something for 32 years...? Looking again at gold as hedge against the falling dollar, looking at 16 rolling 5 year periods starting in the mid 1980's gold beat the dollar only 50% of the time. Again the opposite appears to be true. Over the longterm, but only occuring on the last few years gold has beat the dollar, but again this is over a 20 year period, and gold only has beaten the dollar in the last few years of those 20 years. The third claim that gold offers great profit potential...only if you timing is right. By comparing the Dow Jones and gold price since 1975, looking again at 1,3.5 and 10 year rolling returns gold failed to best the dow jones more than 40% of the time. Again looking over the longterm since 1975 to August 2006 the returns from gold compared to the Dow Jones are very disappointing. If gold was to beat the Dow Jones since 1975 the gold price in 2006 would need to be $2950, but golds price was only $623. So in conclusion, gold beat inflation less than 50% of the time over a rolling 10 year period over 32 years, and only beat inflation over 33 years. Gold only bettered a falling dollar over a 20 year period starting from the mid 1980's, but beat the dollar less than 40% of the time ina rolling 10 year period. And gold as an investment versus the stock market just didnt come close to beating stock market returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkoktraveler Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 The sad part of gold investment in the US is that when you want to cash the gold in, nobody wants to give you a fair price for the gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted October 28, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 Most of the buying at the moment is coming from India where they have plenty of dollars to spend on weddings. But the weak dollar definitely has a few people's attention too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCgringo Posted October 28, 2007 Report Share Posted October 28, 2007 who has the gold price history in UK pounds or Euros over the last few years ? Much of the upward movement is because gold is quoted in US$ OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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