.. Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 Smart investors realize just how dangerous this failure to help the Big 3 is... Cheers, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 Yes but until now we consistently witnessed a quite "strong dollar" when the economy wasn't going too well...explanation by economy analysts was the $ always benefited from being the "refuge currency". Except for HeartThais explanation I don't see why the $ is taking such a pounding today? Someone might explain to me as my few economy courses at uni were mostly crap (Keynesian economics, Max Weber etc...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartThais Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 No one can explain this. To put it in perspective, daily foreign exchange transaction volume is 2-3trillion USD. Daily equity volumes might be 150billion USD. Any single reason trying to explain a move in the FX market is like studying ship movements to predict movement of waves. There's a bunch of reasons I've read... the US trade deficit is unexpectedly widening even with falling oil. The big 3 failure. Employment figures are worsening. US recession forecasts have been worsening. The best you can do is come up with general sentiment that might drive a bunch of factors to move in unison. Safe harbor investments are no longer safe harbor if you think the currency is going to tank. I think the general idea is the US is going to be printing a lot more money than previously thought to dig out of this mess. The only hope for dollar is even worse news to come from the EU and UK. I think UK much more likely than EU to make such announcements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 Thanks for your explanation. UK might soon reach the toilets/commodities/WC bottom... I doubt EU could go far worse -> of course next year many more companies are going to close or downsize but not to a catastrophic extent... especially if the BCE doesn't decide to up its rates next year. Time will tell, my best wishes to my US friends earning their salaries in $/working in the US and to the retired ones getting their retirement in USD. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 wow $ went under the 90 yen mark.... in addition to taking a pounding against other currencies. £ is also going lower and lower but for a long time. Damn, the world is really going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavanami Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 I just used some of my Yen to buy US dollars today...now I hold my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 Then you have to pray for the 3 Big US "bail-out" pass otherwise it might be worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavanami Posted December 12, 2008 Report Share Posted December 12, 2008 I expect to be a bit "blue faced" before I see a decent profit, but this is "mad money" and it can sit for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldFun Posted December 13, 2008 Report Share Posted December 13, 2008 well back on monday 8.dec THB fell dramatically for some reason according oanda.com. usd=38.15thb!!! eur=48.54thb!!! 2 days later (10.dec) back to 'normal': usd=35.64thb eur=45.95thb difference is almost '3 points' or some ~10%!!! sure in equities that's pretty normal, but not in rather stable currency pairs like those... weekend glitch at oanda.com? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 "US rate cut towards zero expected" http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7784741.stm When/if they reach 0 -> what else can the USA do??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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