Invest Now!! - Financial Analysts say

[Tiger Moth]

Yesterday on Fox News (trash, I know), the CEO of an investment firm was interviewed. It was the same old song, now is the time to invest, the market will turn around and can recover as quickly as it went down. Don't miss this opportunity to be one of those who profits greatly by being in the market in time to make big profits.

 

These guys make their money based upon investors investing. It is always the time to invest.

 

But, consider this: "Some Historical Bear Market Perspective

 

Posted on October 11, 2008

 

Dow Jones October 1929 Over a 23 day period, the Dow lost 49% of its value, but that was just the start of the bear market during which the Dow would eventually lose 89% of its value (386.10 to 40.56). How many people do you think called the October 1929 low of 195 the bottom only to get decimated by the continued weakness over the next 3 years? We remain in a bear market and ALL rallies should be treated as guilty until proven innocent, meaning you need to maintain a super strong defense. Do not be too quick to call Friday's low the bottom , there are serious flaws in our economic system...".

 

As I explored the potential that this could be a good time to invest, I found a graph of all the market busts since the Great Depression. I apologize that I didn't save the link. But, basically, (I do recall 1973 - 1974 somewhat), it is very possible that we could be in for another year of downfall before the beginning of a recovery. It could be even worse. And, several of the market busts in the past have been such that one would not reach break even for 5, 10, or more years.

 

Personally, I find the competence of "news" analysts (journalists) to be beyond pathetic. Have you ever read a real estate analysis in the Bangkok Post that did not quote real estate sales people and builders (people who will suffer without trying to convince the public, "now is the time to buy"?

 

As for me, I will accept that I won't be one of the ones who times the market perfectly and makes great profit, I will wait until the turnaround, which may take 1, 3 or more years to occur, is obvious to all.

[samak]

nothing is obvious my dear! we could have reached bottom last week or not yet!

if those guys knew, they would not need to make a living on selling their analysis and opinions!

[Steve]

Walmart is supposedly a good buy, since more people will be shopping at deep discount stores.

[Tiger Moth]

Walmart - down 11% in the last 3 months. 15% in the last 5 days.

[cavanami]

Better to watch the CEOs of the big corps and see if they are jumping to buy their own company's stock. Some weeks ago, the upper management in GE bought over $500K of GE stock, which I took to be a good sign...even though the GE stock has gone down quite a bit since the.

 

Stocks are just legalized gambling. Take your best shot!

[elef]

IMO the stock exchanges will be down 50 % more and oil price around 30. USA will have a depression and EU countries will have a big recession before it's over. China, India and Russia will still have growth however. Probably Japan and Thailand too. Time to buy? - my guess is 6 months from now, crisis maybe over in end of 2009.

[Faustian]

Financial analysts say, "fark! We could be out of jobs...give lots of money to us and our fat fuck mates, who all advised you so wisely over the last few months.............what do you mean you lost a packet and can't afford to invest and don't believe a word we say anymore....?"

 

[chelseafan]

Walmart - down 11% in the last 3 months. 15% in the last 5 days.

 

 

Try Costco, last quarter sales up by 10% and profit 7% on like for like buildings. Running between lows of $63 to highs of $74 (from memory0.

They also have a sound management team run by Jim Singeal (his pay last year as CEO was a mere 3 million dollars + shares).

 

As someone pointed out the discounters are going to be the winners.

 

 

[chelseafan]

IMO the stock exchanges will be down 50 % more and oil price around 30. USA will have a depression and EU countries will have a big recession before it's over. China, India and Russia will still have growth however. Probably Japan and Thailand too. Time to buy? - my guess is 6 months from now, crisis maybe over in end of 2009.

 

Russia is going to suffer big time, a lot of money is being pulled out.

 

 

[loner w/a boner]

I know this isn't what you asked, but...

 

IMO:

1. living well below your means and sticking to a budget / schedule,

2. 6+months of income in liquid savings,

3. getting out of debt,

4. home ownership,

5. taking advantage of any retirement / tax-advantaged accounts,

6. income-producing hobbies \(as opposed to expensive hobbies),

7. a diversified stock/mutual fund portfolio, ,

8. proper insurance /wills, etc...

 

in the long-run will yield a more secure, less stressful lifestyle with maximum financial security.

 

Very few have insider information as to the short-term future of the market. The longer you plan on being in the market (the younger you are)the less relevant the down market is now.

 

But, IMO, if you HAVE a liquid EMERGENCY FUND of 6+ months of income, etc...as mentioned above, and won't need your INVESTMENT money in question for 7+ years, then now is PROBABLY a good time to get in. When the market does turn around, it will almost certainly be in a big way.