Paillote Posted November 20, 2008 Report Share Posted November 20, 2008 In Jomtien there are many condominium projects that looks like they have stopped or are not even starting. Might be temporarily, but surely there is no activity going on. Others have only a small handfull of workers milling around. Must be very, very risky to invest in anything less than 70% finished these days. Paillote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 20, 2008 Report Share Posted November 20, 2008 Fark!!!!!!!! 51.8 Baht to the pound!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.. Posted November 21, 2008 Report Share Posted November 21, 2008 Sorry mate, I haven't paid that much attention to tell you exact places. Out on Lad Prao, the Crowne Plaza on Suk at 29, out near Chang Wattana come to mind. Pretty easy to tell if not being worked: no cranes, the gates closed and locked, and the green cloth in tatters... Cheers, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 21, 2008 Report Share Posted November 21, 2008 52.8 Baht to the pound today... roller coaster time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Scrutinizer Posted November 21, 2008 Report Share Posted November 21, 2008 Enjoy the ride you UK (and Euro) bretheren. We Yanks have been on the roller-coaster for a couple years now, and it has mostly been a downhill ride until recently. It does suck watching your money buy less and less when in the kingdom. For a long time (years) we were getting 38 to 40 baht for the dollar. As you all saw it went down to around 31 and hung around 32 for quite a while. When changing a thousand dollars a few baht per buck can add up significantly. I just wonder how long the BOT can keep propping up the baht. It can't last much longer I believe. And no, I don't believe them when they say they are letting the baht 'naturally' find its level. They are interferring with the rates. It should be around 38 now (in my mind, but I am no financial expert to say the least), but for some reason they want to keep it around 34 to the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted November 21, 2008 Report Share Posted November 21, 2008 True, BOT has been injecting funds to keep the bht at its current level. This is against all Thailand's best interest, even the Thai companies are crying... If someone has an explanation it would be welcome. It also seems that it all happens at very high level, the government officers with whom my girlfriend speaks have no idea why this is like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartThais Posted November 21, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2008 It doesn't make sense for the BOT to prop up the baht with intervention. The biggest reason I can see for baht strength is that they have kept a very tight monetary policy and they've been prohibitive of speculative inflows of foreign capital. They actually raised rates in August while the rest of the world was cutting. They kept rates flat in October when the rest of the world was coordinating a rate cut. Clearly, they're more worried about inflation than slowing growth. BOT might be buying baht in the open market but I think there are more likely reasons for relative baht strength... reasons that are likely to go away soon. I like USD/Baht. I'm neutral/slightly bearish on GBP/Baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted November 22, 2008 Report Share Posted November 22, 2008 Worried about inflation like the CEB/BCE?? Hearthais, you say there are reasons but which ones??? I the BOT is really that concerned by inflation then they took the wrong measures as inflation went through the roof and they did not even dare publishing the real figures... Keeping inflation as low as possible is all very nice to keep people's buying power at a decent level but when this policy collides with the tow basis of your economy which are exportation and tourism -> then there is something wrong IMO. Now if someone knows the reasons please give them as I would be very interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartThais Posted November 22, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2008 I don't know what the CBE/BEC is (Bank of England???). I'm not arguing whether the BOT's position is correct. I'm not an economist. I'm noting that BOT has taken a very hawkish view towards inflation by raising and keeping rates steady when the rest of the world is cutting. This is what I mean by more likely reasons for baht stability vs. alleged BOT intervention. Anyway, that's not important. My main point is that BOT intervention is unlikely and given export pressures, my expectation is that we see relaxing of monetary policy and therefore persistent depreciation of baht vs. USD. Take it for what it's worth which being free advice is not much. However, I've put my money where my mouth is and have converted the GBP I've reserved for holiday into USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted November 22, 2008 Report Share Posted November 22, 2008 BEC = European central bank. Switching from pound to USD might be wise. I will stick to my euros as at worst it would reach a parity with the USD, on the other hand nobody seems to know what will happen to the USD in the middle, long-term... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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