.. Posted November 18, 2008 Report Share Posted November 18, 2008 We are already seeing -- and have been for the past year -- shades of 1997: plenty of abandoned hi-rise construction projects and rampant inflation (I reckon 20+% this calendar year)... Cheers, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 18, 2008 Report Share Posted November 18, 2008 Indeed, inflation in the developing economies could be a nightmare, wages simply aren't rising anywhere near as fast....and credit is already utilised widely to bridge the gap. It's a similar time-bomb to the west. Once economic growth falls....things could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 We are already seeing -- and have been for the past year -- shades of 1997: plenty of abandoned hi-rise construction projects and rampant inflation (I reckon 20+% this calendar year)... Cheers, SD Not sure where you are seeing plenty of abandoned hi-rise construction projects, I only know of one, The Regents which stopped when Grand Asset went belly up, but even it seems to have started back up again. Thailand's biggest industry is electronic manufacturing and assembly, which is likely to be impacted by a global slowdown. Though, I have read that the computer industry may not be hit as hard as some since it has become so essential to business in general. Auto manufacturing is undoubtedly going to impacted. I read that most plants in Thailand have been running at 20-30% overtime so the worst that is happening now is cutting backing to straight time shifts. Of course workers that have been getting 20% OT for years will feel like they have taken a huge hit pay. But, Thailand is not so dependent on the cheap junk exports that with falling demand is hitting China so bad. With the falling price of fuel not sure inflation is going to be all that bad this year. There is a perception of a general slowdown in Thailand, and chances are likely it will become real. I do know that the construction industry is still booming and employment in that sector is very high with engineers and workers still very much in demand and I don't see that ending for at least a year. When it comes down to it, no one knows what next year is going to be like. But there certainly seems to be a consensus that there will be at least a worldwide recession for at least 9-12 months. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTO Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 there are still 300+ abandoned buildings from 97, Muang Tong Thani is a classic example, sad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.. Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 TH: I've seen half a dozen in the past week just the past week driving around the city. I'm not talking the Suk ghetto. Cheers, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 I wasn't talking just about the Suk ghetto either. I haven't seen any that are what I would call "abandoned". Some seem to have slowed down, notably the Met on Sathorn, but even on these there are still a few crews plugging away. Once the structure is topped out and the exterior finish and interior work starts, when you look from the outside, it can look like no one is working on them for Can you be a bit specific as to the half dozen you saw? I ask because we are still hurting for construction crews and if there is a slowdown, we sure have not seen it. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Munchmaster Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 Many of the unfinished towers from the 97 economic downturn have now been completed or redeveloped. Some remain unfinished but are their new ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 There were some along Viparadi, but work appears to have restarted. There's a couple on Phanonyothin, went up this year and stopped, but that was before this "crisis". Interestingly there was an item on channel news Asia today, They interviewed various bods in the building trade. Their take was that the buyers are there, but the builders can't afford to build due to construction costs! Sounds like similar scenarios elsewhere...buyers haven't cottoned on yet that prices are highly inflated, buy to let going on everywhere, credit still readily available from the banks...buyers over-extending themselves thinking to make money quickly....etc etc. Ring any bells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted November 19, 2008 Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 1 pound = 52.7 Baht today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartThais Posted November 19, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2008 Well, Goldman Sachs has a 6-month forecast on GBP/USD at 1.6 and 12-month forecast of 1.67... I'm still gonna bet the other way on the 6-month horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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