Guest Posted March 29, 2002 Report Share Posted March 29, 2002 Thanks DB, This goes into my folder "Gained knowledge 2002". Pretty empty until now! Have to buy you a beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2002 Report Share Posted March 29, 2002 No offense, but what I garner from your post is: "Technical analysis (charting) is cool, but basically useless." So I agree with you completely. My view is that technical analysis cannot predict anything beyond the shortest of time horizons, say one or two weeks at most. For currencies, look to trade (im)balances and relative interest rates. To blather even further, trying to pick securities is, statistically, a losing game. Sure, there will always be a Soros or a Buffett, but they are "outliers" (anomalies). The vast majority of people do not beat the market by picking securities. Buy a diversified index fund (like QQQ) and hold it. Recommend reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." You'll never use a broker again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2002 Report Share Posted March 29, 2002 Hi Thaihome and others, Here is the graph. THB vs USD 120 days running. http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2002 Report Share Posted March 29, 2002 Hi DB-Sed-aloha, Impressive chart!! And still digesting your financial analysis. Way too cool!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2002 Report Share Posted March 29, 2002 Post deleted by DoxyBlue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phiketpete Posted March 29, 2002 Report Share Posted March 29, 2002 "I am not licensed or trained as an investment counselor or securities broker." This may be true and I am sure that it is but you have the disclaimer down pat and you have a firmer grasp of this concept than many of my colleagues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 30, 2002 Report Share Posted March 30, 2002 Post deleted by DoxyBlue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 30, 2002 Report Share Posted March 30, 2002 Increasing the value of the baht hurts the Thai exports because they become more expensive compared to their competitors. I think that they are having a hard time competing with China right now. A lot of new investment money is heading in that direction recently. Noting that the value of the baht increased during the high tourist season, it seemed to me that it was an attempt to squeeze a few more dollars out of the tourists. This gain has to be balanced with the loss of exports to make it worthwhile. The trend of your chart seems to indicate that the value of the baht will be increasing. Do you know what would be causing this? It will be interesting to see if this trend continues or the value will decrease again in the low tourist season to attract more tourist dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gummigut Posted March 30, 2002 Report Share Posted March 30, 2002 Handyman: I understand that an increase in the baht hurts Thai exports. As I said before, the % increase of the baht in the past year has been minimal and that this appreciation is being used as an excuse for poor exports. I believe the poor exports of the past year can be attributed to investor sentiment of the past year in Thailand. As for more investment flowing into China: this implies a decrease of money going into Thailand. All things being equal, you would see the baht weaken. Exact opposite of what's going on. Additionally, Cerebros recently initiated a Thai fund at about US700 milllion. Mercedes I believe recently announced it plans to more than double production capacity. Large investments have resumed although not as frequent as I used to read. As for the baht appreciating during tourist high season... If tourists due indeed drive marketable exchange movements, then tourists would bring in more US$'s. Thus more $'s chasing fewer bahts make it logical that the baht would appreciate. It's market forces that dictate the exchange rate rather than some Thai higher power that wants to "squeeze" tourists. Thai's found this out the hardway in 1997. As for the general explanation of the increase in the baht is that the baht is strongly related to the Yen. Have done a currency analysis with regards to the Yen though, but that's what knowledgeable folks are generalizing. <<burp>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 30, 2002 Report Share Posted March 30, 2002 db_sed_aloha has provided technical charts. There are technical and fundamental analysts, and there are people who pay attention to both. His description of how an equity has resistance and support levels is an excellent explanation. In my opinion, professional investors do not ignore the "charting" because it is an indication where money has moved in or out of an investment in the past. Because 90% of equities are traded short term, if one pays attention to those indicators, their odds might significantly increase over someone who just throws the money at it. I will disagree with one "impression". I believe this current strengthing of the baht vs US$ (and other currencies against the $ ) has nothing to do with Thailand, rather a result of investors believing the US Fed will tighten interest rates about 150 basis points before the end of the year, which has caused a recent runup in the 10 and 20 year notes, and the rush by corporations to issue Tier 1 and Tier 2 corporate debt instraments before the end of the year to lock in a lower interest rate. In addition, tightening of the money supply due to higher debt and Fed action is being watched very closely and therefore, with tighter money, the value of currencies increase. In my humble opinion, the baht might hold the 41 level and when the interest rate is raised in the US, it might reach the 39 support level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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